Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

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Before a reform could be initiated the "cataclysm" happened. META was the fast stitched together, rudimentary successor of WCG and its "meta-democracy". The rudimentariness is symbolized by just using the one word. The democratic part and the national ideologies broke away. Therefore it goes along the line "[[Oni2:META|Beyond everything]]" (so, also, "beyond itself"). META prevented a total breakdown of world economy. After that the corrupt system served itself. It's in greater parts a totalitarian kleptocracy.
Before a reform could be initiated the "cataclysm" happened. META was the fast stitched together, rudimentary successor of WCG and its "meta-democracy". The rudimentariness is symbolized by just using the one word. The democratic part and the national ideologies broke away. Therefore it goes along the line "[[Oni2:META|Beyond everything]]" (so, also, "beyond itself"). META prevented a total breakdown of world economy. After that the corrupt system served itself. It's in greater parts a totalitarian kleptocracy.


==Worldbuilding==
====Klimadiktatur====
Some brainstorming on fictional timelines, semi-proceeding geopolitics and other topics by taking inspiration from the real world.
 
My thinking is that "interesting" science fiction has some kind of relevance for our current reality. Ergo, so why not take some more ideas from reality? Our world offers many conflicts to tell interesting stories. The negative side is that politics can be extremely polarizing. The original story was wonderful unpolitical. So I will try to keep that as a tradition even though the brainstorming may not look like that.
 
Since Green Village feature many WCG-ish but also "old world" characters (Russians, Europeans, etc.) I want to explore their possible backgrounds.
 
===War and money===
''A story about bloc(k)heads.''
 
A more detailed look on why the WCG is 90% demilitarized.
 
----
 
Generally spoken military alliances are the consequence of mutually shared interests. At first sight the main interest is attack or defense. In times of peace they have more notably the last word in diplomatic relationships and economy and on how soft power is used: Establishment of industry standards [[wp:Concerns_over_Chinese_involvement_in_5G_wireless_networks|(e.g. 5G)]], weapons, non-distribution of goods / embargos and sanctions. Therefore military alliances are always a factor in geopolitics.
 
'''Eventually geopolitics are always about securing your slice of cake in another country''' - may it be USA (and rest of NATO), Russia, China or whosoever. The only difference is how they are doing it. (After [[wp:Operation_Cyclone|decades long Afghanistan conflict]] the Western self-image got cracks. Consequences are being discussed.)
 
China was the new candidate for hegemony - until corona removed the absolute certainty. In any case the world will stay multi-polar for an even longer time. This pessimistic view is [https://archive.ph/q7kuE shared by more and more people]. '''A positive connotation could have been that this gives USA time to mentally adapt to be second in rank but this gets overshadowed by the stretched out time for even more conflicts and that China has already shown to be even more repressive against inner dissidents.'''
 
Russia <s>is working</s> worked and failed on its comeback. Does it just want respect? It's a term that caused strong diplomatic turbulence between Germany and Ukraine January 2021. Everybody knows the Crimea will not come back to the Ukraine but drawing it as a fatalistic fact therefore seemingly excusable was reckless. While that conflict is a problem for itself Kay-Achim Schönbach should have said "Russia wants to be taken serious" instead of "respect". Russia wants also a piece of the cake, the geopolitical cake, money. NATO expanded eastward multiple times, therefore expanded their zone of influence. Why in the world would Russia just stand still and say "that's okay with us"? Sure, the smaller nations should be free to choose which alliance they want to join but that's not how the world works. That's the ugly truth. Only [[wp:Realpolitik|Realpolitik]] can solve this conflict. The unofficial rules in the club of <s>supercriminals</s> (*cough*) superpowers should have been that you don't poach in the territory of another superpower and that undecided territory should remain bloc free. -- Now it's too late. Putin's own corruption and radicalization additionally worsened problem. The combination a problematic dynamic and a problematic political leader not only expelled millions of people and partially destroyed Ukraine, it also put up Cold War 1.5.
 
The question is how can we finally grow out of these studiedly dangerous kindergarten superpower mentalities.
 
----
 
On a long run overgrown military and war industry tend to deplete their host empires and allies.
 
Especially USA cannot modernizing their infrastructure, repair/compensate damages from climate change, invest in green technologies and do a new arms race all simultaneously.
 
The debts of USA are projected to reach a critical stage of [[wp:History_of_the_United_States_public_debt|200% GDP in 2050]].
 
Climate change will make war industry an unaffordable luxury.
 
Climate change and overpopulation will worsen the resource problems on a global scale. Armed conflicts increase. War industry of superpower burn money in war and peace times. Smaller states buy weapons from superpowers to protect themselves (or resources) against other smaller states or superpowers. Superpowers will through military alliances demand their bloc members to contribute more to the budget - putting more weight behind their East-vs.-West-tinted geopolitics - as they cannot do it themselves anymore.
 
It's a vicious circle, setting a bomb prone to self-ignition. '''The military-industrial complex highly contributes to globally rising and distributed debts until they reach a critical limit and any spontaneous mega crisis like a new pandemic can blow up THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.'''
 
After the probable slimming of USA and the rise of China in 2050 the new leading superpower will stand at the crossroad to - probably - deepen its totalitarianism or to - improbable - fulfill its old promise of a new form of democracy.
 
----
 
It seems that behind all ideology rest the motivation to [[wp:Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs|serve human needs]]. Ideology mostly defines the how. Since there are multiple systems concurrence and '''questions of fairness in distribution occur'''. As physiological needs are served in very most systems the second stage - safety needs, especially '''economic security (wealth)''' - is most often in our focus. The imbalance is clearly visible. The permanent effort to secure peaceful coexistence has to tackle the pyramid bottom up. But the ideological hardening keeps us imprisoned in the dynamics of competing systems - meanwhile the fights waste additional resources to the disadvantage of everyone.
 
Build into all this is the fact that humans cheat each other. To marginalize this fact only utterly inconvenient pyrrhic events and tools are thinkable. With maybe one exception.
 
===Postnational influences===
Because WCG.
 
====USA====
Today USA rightfully thinks of NATO being dysfunctional* (this has historic reasons) - and the European partners don't have strong interests in securing the Pacific. This led to the less powerful but dedicated alliance AUKUS. Besides that USA tries to normalize their relationship to the Islamic world ([[wp:Abraham_Accords#Aftermath|Abraham Accords]], lifting sanctions on Iran) as Russia and China strengthen their own relationship more and more. It's their [[wp:Islamophobia_in_China|last straw]] to significantly increase their weight in the game of superpowers.
 
: * NATO was a self-defense alliance against a hypothetical new aggressive Germany and then against Soviet Union and communism. What started with a legit objective became more and more obsolete and in greater part a geopolitical tool of USA. '''Putin's military threatening and invasions breathed new life into NATO's reasons d'etre.'''
 
=====NATO=====
I am not a "Putinversteher" (Putin fan). I do not have any sympathy for that man. My sole intention is to comprehend people.
 
''Finding the thin path of peaceful coexistence in the jungle of pretextual arguments, direct lies and self-running complexes.''
 
Showing reflected opinions based on '''past events and "complexity of life"''' was already inconvenient at peace times and it is ''heretical'' at war times. In a heated up atmosphere anything that smells like relativization is not welcomed. ''Treason.''
 
We should always try to comprehend the goals and concerns of our rivals and enemies, the pretexual and the real ones. We should always try to see behind all propaganda - their and our own.
 
In order to learn from history and prevent blowback-like situations we need to have an as good as possible informed civil population.
 
: Chalmers Johnson, CIA consultant, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pwD4J35-i8&t=350s (GER video)] [https://youtu.be/8KH6FWs99Aw?t=282 (ENG video)]:
:: It's a CIA term. '''Blowback does not mean simply the unintended consequences of foreign operations. It mean the unintended consequences of foreign operations that were deliberately kept secret from the American public. So that when the retaliation comes the American public is not able to put it in context, to put cause and effect together.''' That they come up with questions like "why did they hate us". Our government did not want the forensic question asked. ''What were their motives?'' And instead shall us to say "they were just evil-doers".
 
: Robert Gates, American intelligence analyst and United States secretary of defense complained that the Europeans were not spending enough for NATO's budget. At the same time he criticized NATO's expansion plans:
:: "[https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-west-is-principally-responsible-for-the-ukrainian-crisis trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching.]"
 
Appeasement policy failed? Yes because it was halfhearted, sabotaged by our own interests.
 
'''If we cannot agree on things then what are the consequences and continued dynamics?''' If we do not do this then diplomacy cannot stand a chance in deadly situations.
 
'''If we reject realpolitik as solution our attempts to protect our values can cause additional loss of human lives.'''
 
----
 
:He who cannot be far-sighted,
:Nor three thousand years assay,
:Inexperienced stays benighted,
:Let him live from day to day.
:: - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
 
A highfalutin quote but you get the idea. For the recent past you should watch ZDF info documentations: Inside NATO
: Paid by taxes and yet the originals will stop being available on 01.04.2022. ''The first casualty of war is truth.'' The more it is important to preserve these videos.
* <s>http://web.archive.org/web/20190911210805/https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/zdfinfo-doku/inside-nato-eine-amerikanische-erfindung-102.html</s>
** <nowiki>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqkQNVpvVUU</nowiki>, 404 due to copyright takedown
* <s>http://web.archive.org/web/20191203124759/https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/zdfinfo-doku/inside-nato-das-grosse-wettruesten-102.html</s>
** <nowiki>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAYXw_SyD1o</nowiki>, 404 due to copyright takedown
* <s>http://web.archive.org/web/20191203124838/https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/zdfinfo-doku/inside-nato-krieg-und-neue-feinde-102.html</s>
** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jueb884qGnw
 
There is clearly a '''[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrGqXrUdqlw spiritual successor]''' (thumb up) but the channel's 10 - 15 min limit makes it (unfortunately) quite a compression.
 
----
 
The "historic mistake of NATO" was not to reject Ukraine but to keep growing after the break down of Warsaw Pact.
 
Against who is NATO defending? '''Soviet Union / Russia was at the ground. When NATO grew they served the security concerns of east European nations but also - wanted or not - USA's geopolitical zone of influence. This took away from Russia's own potential zone of influence and pushed hardliners into feeling betrayal and new paranoia.''' They couldn't stop NATO's expansion even if they wanted to. The only option they had was to make a ''pretty face''. At least oral agreements were made - and broken - and consequently our hardliners say they don't matter.
 
From a position of strength it was all too easy to expand. NATO lacked the wisdom to make a second thought in what they were really doing.
 
'''Putin's KGB training and cold war experiences including the paranoia ''shaped'' him for using questionable methods.''' Besides that he was not always that power seeking person with an inflated, narcissistic ego. [https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/zdfzoom/zdfzoom-der-enthemmte-despot-102.html He did not wanted to be president nor did he think he would keep that position.] He was put into that position and even tried to fight the oligarchs.
 
2001 he said "the cold war is over" and wanted to reduce the mutual threatening. But his speech in Bundestag remained without consequences. After 9/11 he even allowed USA to use military bases in former Soviet republics for operations against Taliban. '''We missed the chance to stop a self-fulfilling prophecy.''' He became disappointed by Europe's half-hearted partnership additionally hampered by US hardliners who took themselves the right to operate all over the world. He ended up in letting the oligarchs work for him and put himself at the top of the deeply corrupt system, "managed democracy". Possibly understanding himself as smaller necessary evil. Why chancellor Schröder named him a "flawless democrat" he possibly will never let us know. Putin raised to represent but not fulfilled Russia's claim in power in which also lies some old Soviet pride and made him reject joining NATO as a mere ordinary member. Calling them losers wasn't the best diplomatic behavior either, not helpful.
 
'''A long-running frustration and even deeper multifarious corruption took place.'''
 
Having lost most scruple - as assassinations, attempts and smaller preceding wars have shown - he went on and attacked Ukraine in its entirety. Does this retrospectively legitimize NATO's expansion? Now the voices of the ''eternal alerters'' are loud. "See! We always told you!" And yet they fall short to realize the broader picture: '''Cold warrior Putin has turned into a full-fledged monster - and the West is not without guilt in creating that monster.''' Right now we need the strength of NATO to contain him. But someday the most difficult question will resurface: How can we exit the dangerous bloc mentality? That is actually not a question but a necessity.
 
====Germany====
As a German I can be more specific about Germany as inspiration than about other nations. And I might have an - although not intended - national-tinted point of view.
 
After the Second World War we are the way the world - or at least the West - wanted us to be. Don't blame your creation. ''Never again [must war arise from German ground].'' '''And so we got pacifistic, pluralistic, moralistic. Sometimes to such a degree it annoys our partners - and even ourselves.''' Sometimes our own Remembrance Culture with its strong state-medial and political - therefore dead boring - rituals goes ourselves on the nerve. We try to get along with everyone. With USA, with Russia. With Israel, with Palestine (unofficially).
 
As part of the '''indoctrination of humanistic values''' school classes are dragged to old Nazi concentration camps. A normal educated citizen is meant to always remember history and be fair on everyone. What is generally a good thing has a few '''bizarre side effects in society''': hyper moral and double standards. Besides the traditional right standard racism [https://web.archive.org/web/20220311093434/https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/israel-und-europas-rechtspopulisten-verbuendete-gegen-islam-und-islamismus/23938578.html there are also people from the right spectrum who wear the support for state Israel like an armor.] At the same time they have no problem in excessively criticizing other foreign persons, especially when they are immigrates. They seem to believe that when they are pro-Israel they cannot be racists. On the other hand there are people from the left spectrum who have a blind eye for problems immigrates cause. For examples clan criminality, mafia, Arabic/pro-Palestine antisemitism were problems ignored for too many years since their fight back did not fit into the German [[wp:Willkommenskultur|welcoming culture]]. (In any case it should be common sense that German Jews are the wrong target for Israel criticism, they are not responsible for Israeli politics.) The [[wp:2021_Israel–Palestine_crisis|Israel-Palestine crisis]] and the [[wp:2021–2022_Belarus–European_Union_border_crisis|Belarus-EU border crisis]] in 2021 shook Germany's self-image. As a result the underdeveloped migration and inefficient integration politics are finally realized through essentially all political parties. Yet, much work is to do to grind away ideological hardening and formulating improved arrangements.
 
:It can be assumed that the '''ideology-driven opposing views helped partly in keeping alive a feedback loop''' hindering to create better domestic policies. The well-intended but way naive left-ish narrative helped the extreme right in their doing which again causes the leftist to counteract to protect immigrants. The leftists shouldn't be blamed for having kickstarted the dynamic. There are historic pragmatic (realpolitisch) reasons for this development. The denazification remained highly incomplete - therefore the need of a left-ish over-caring narrative. On one hand it was not possible to put large portions of Nazi perpetrator and accomplices into jail. There were simply too many of them. On the other hand post-war Europe lay in ashes. [[wp:Marshall_Plan|Germany was needed for the rebuild.]] And so USA connected this necessity with their own economic and political (anti-communistic) interests.
 
As for pacifism and appeasement policy - USA (and rest of NATO) often work hard on Germany so that it agrees to their ''invitations'' to wars and sanctions against rivals. This is partly a good thing as USA often act themselves strongly ideological just trying to protect their zone of influence. The collateral damage USA cause on their partners*- despite protestations to the contrary - is eventually secondary for them: ''America first''. -- On a general note the problem with USA is that they didn't had a war on their own ground [[wp:American_Revolutionary_War|in younger history]]. They don't know how total destruction feels like. This mixed with an self-image of superiority they too readily accept military interventions as solutions.
: * '''For example Germany is meant to give up NS2 while the States are not willing to endanger their (even more sanctions worthy) oil imports from Russia. When Biden was asked about that in the presence of Olaf Scholz no answer was given.''' Also, Biden made clear that ultimately he is the one in control of the NS2 decision, not the chancellor - as if Germany is not fully sovereign - that's at least how many people understood his words. The media tended to speak more of helping out Olaf Scholz against an inconvenient question from a journalist. (Well, both views can be true, they don't really rule out each other.)
:: 2022.03.08 Biden restored a good portion of trust when he announced embargoes of fossil energy sources. Made possible by pressure from his own people and not primarily aimed to the Europeans of course, but hey the issue was removed and cannot cause trouble in the future. To mitigate negative consequences there is cooperation with three "smaller evils": OPEC member Saudi Arabia, Iran* and Venezuela*. (* As a bonus this might also eat on Russia's influence on these nations. At least Maduro looked very happy about the decision.) Meanwhile Putin seems to want sabotaging Germany's [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/qatar-in-talks-to-supply-gas-to-europe-if-russia-cuts-supplies inquiry] in Qatar sending Lawrow to them.
 
At the same time Germany earns good money exporting weapons. [https://www.dw.com/en/german-arms-sales-drop-to-second-highest-levels-on-record/a-37243336 The numbers are even increasing on average]. Despite many restrictions often enough those weapons find a way into conflict zones.
 
If policy of détente is the continuation of moderate pacifism on state level, appeasement policy may be seen as continuation of a more radical (suicidal) pacifism. In any case Germany had lost its instinct for '''geopolitics''' after it adopted a pacifistic base attitude. After WWII strong nationalism and '''imperialism''' was meant to be avoided, to be banned from our heads. And so we also didn't want to deal with those matters in foreign policy. We wanted to believe that Russia would become less aggressive with time but Putin became nonetheless too greedy and frustrated and eventually saw imperialism as solution to speed up development to reach old might. The reasons are manifold. America being a problematic role model, Russia's self-definition, our comfortable focus on geopolitics ignoring economy - just to name a few. Germany should have played a more active role though nobody would have really liked that either. It would have created other kinds of conflict. -- At least instead of "having hopes", appeasement should have had exact monitoring as minimum condition to be responsible.
 
[...]
 
The fat years are over and again wrong priorities are about to get chosen. (Please don't.) If it rains nukes on Germany - and when that happens on whole Europe - forget [https://www.rbb24.de/politik/beitrag/2022/04/bunker-schutz-umbau-garagen-u-bahn-sicherheit-gruene-ukraine.html underground stations] and [https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/zivilschutz-katastrophenschutz-notfallplaene-bunker-100.html bomb shelters], placebos. After the explosions, there will be still nuclear fallout and starvation. Politicians should be so honest to say there is no real escape. Instead of preparing for an severe but unlikely threat - that can be barely mitigated - so that it basically brings nothing but costs, that money should be better used to tackle much realer problems: for instance, the energy transition (Energiewende), the underdeveloped digital infrastructure, cyber security, teaching companies directly to use new tools, and pushing the GAIA-X project so that it does not become a total billion-euros grave. -- Again: There is not one single plausible scenario that would justify the construction of new protection structures. Bomb shelters make sense in isolated wars but not for Germany which is part of NATO. A full scale conventional war against Germany would automatically get nuclear. And then you are in so much deep shit that nothing will help.
 
====Europe====
Europe can only preserve its sovereignty by becoming as much self-sustaining as possible. Making itself independent from superpowers by new technologies and political unity is key. A true normalization of relationships with Russia will be likely delayed until US influences are displaced and Russia realizes its expendability to a 2060-future China.
 
'''Emancipation from USA.''' There are two scenarios to improve enforcement of European interests.
* A) As an early adaptor of minimum-military the EU can free resources to successfully compensate effects of climate change and improve living standards. A certain amount of diversification is not a weakness but a resource. '''A "pluralistic-symbiotic think tank" can better work out alternative solutions and offer them anyone in need - even to (or especially to) highly militarized, ideological narrowed (gleichgeschaltete) superpowers.''' - It's a risky move as superpowers must recognize Europe as neutral ground so they can profit from it in other ways then depleting it. -- Wanted: A strategy for viable pacifism. [...]
* B) A semi-militarized version. With an European army with focus on east-European partners to ease their security concerns. USA, Russia and China will be given all the same chances to do business with Europe. No special treatments. Critical infrastructure (ownership) will stay under European control at all times. [...]
 
2022 escalated the geopolitical fight between USA and Russia. It was the last wakeup call for Europe to not end as collateral damage between all superpowers - and to become the green continent.
 
====Russia====
2022. Russia assured multiple times that it will not attack Ukraine. If Russia attacks the Ukraine nonetheless - in whatever form, no matter whether a false flag action happens before or not - they will lose all credibility for a long time and NATO will be forced to impose sanctions. Germany will be forced to stop NS2 and give up its pacifistic basic attitude. If the attack is big enough it would even trigger a new cold war.
 
'''The illogical invasion'''
 
Based on pure logic a full-fledged war across the entire Ukraine is improbable. (Also, Bundeswehr sees not much of a risk. The Ukraine doesn't want the escalation to be made real by US talk. And Snowden raised [https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016?cxt=HHwWgMC55bfOvbopAAAA questions], too.) Usually, an attack is carried out as fast as possible so the enemy has no time to prepare his defense. Then again, even if Russia invades they cannot keep such a vast area under control.
: The communication by western administrations (and media) - especially of USA - has been criticized as warmongering. Apparently, the current strategy is to speak about war as much as possible (to unite own allies behind the banner of NATO) and make Russia not want to prove the West right.
:: USA had many shady military and secret intelligence missions (CIA) in foreign nations. This includes installation of new government in rogue nations. Consequently these are made pro-USA. And as side effect USA often profits economically in an intensified way.
::: '''Among critics you can often hear the "blood for oil" thesis or "No blood for oil" slogan, saying in quintessence that USA is using its military to protect its advantage in buying, producing or mining the resources. However, nations with less potential power or by simply being smaller are always in disadvantage and are in danger of getting exploited by economic dynamics.''' (Pretty everyone tries or tried to exploit African nations.) On the other hand there is the military-industrial complex and ideological factors that add their bits and pieces to foreign policy - may it be the readiness to use military and the "sense of mission" (own belief in being forced) to bring democracy to nations with a different cultural environment.
:: Sometimes these missions (for new governments / nation building) end up in unwillingly facilitating new radical forces - like the Taliban or the Islamic State. This makes its sometimes hard to believe that USA speaks the truth. '''The "collateral damage" - including the eavesdrop of global communication - is so massive that whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange (WikiLeaks) can reveal that many tons of mistakes and wrongdoing that they were declared public enemies. USA is at times itself a problematic role model. They created an empire not simply by - but yet partially by - questionable methods and accepted high amounts of killed civilians and violated human rights at [[wp:CIA_black_sites|CIA black sides]] like [[wp:Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp|Guantanamo]] which not even Nobel peace laureate Barack Obama was willing to close.''' If the inmates were not radicalized at the beginning they were after years of humiliation and torture. Their release poses a new threat to USA so the shutdown of Guantanamo is considered possible only in small steps. Putin sees Russia as superpower that cannot catch up. The problem with this fact is that there are four reasons: 1) Climate and geography give Russia a disadvantage. 2) Putin's own growing corruption. 3) The economic heritage. 4) The political heritage: For many US-Americans the Russians are evil communists which must be indeed blocked in their development, consequently this includes the sabotage of Russia's connection to Europe. -- Putin reasons that if USA doesn't play fair that he also doesn't need to play fair. But since Russia is in disadvantage Putin sees himself forced to use an even intensified level of ruthlessness. '''To overcome this position of weakness Putin decided to rule Russia in an autocratic style and take by force what he cannot get with legal methods.''' - Putin must be utterly frustrated that he could not lift Russia's status out of being an underdog. His entire second part of his lifespan was not enough to "restore" Russia. It seems that he snapped about that fact. - '''Besides the natural economic competition, military and political hardliners intensified a feedback loop in which USA and Russia still fight each each up to this day. - Anyway, the attack on Ukraine was the last red line Putin shouldn't have crossed. There is absolutely no credible justification for this attack.'''
 
: A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future post-Putin Russian government is honestly interested in such. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.)
 
Summarized, Putin walks ruthlessly over bodies but he is a rational killer after all. We didn't had the "wrong" estimation per se. It was Putin who had the wrong estimation because he was given false information. His own intelligence agencies and military gave him wrong facts. They were too afraid of telling him the truth about Russian forces and Ukraine's situation. That means that Putin would still have attacked Ukraine but only when he had the power to do so.
: * These days you often hear that Putin has an ideology. I think that's just pretextual, a justification and tool for mass manipulation. He had no problem in keeping the MiGs for war and not let them fly at the military parades. He tried to calm the families of fallen soldiers. He only halfhearted held a sign to remember the dead during the march of the immortal regiment, a once concurrent movement he found to be useful for his own ends. He isn’t talking of taking the entire Ukraine anymore, but the Donbas, simply changing a war goal that was placed in that ideology. Putin ended his speech with a halfhearted hooray and before it was fully out of his mouth he was about to turn away. Sarcastic undertones on. If he is given the right information he knows what he is doing. Sarcastic undertones off. Just because Putin "has" (uses) an ideology doesn't necessarily mean he believes it himself. Unfortunately, Putin is not ready yet to give up on his stubbornness, he is not used to lose.
 
The food sector being Putin's hostage begins to take effect. EU should finally switch to war economy. A step they also missed to do during Corona. Baerbock just announced the G7 will increase their effort to vaccinate the global south and other kind of support to mitigate historical mistakes (colonialism) and Putin's propaganda of an at least selfish West. Anyway, vaccine injections cannot replace corn.
:  2022.11.28 In the end the corn war was a double edged sword... Erdogan might have been indeed the last gram on the balance and pushed Putin in hope Türkiye could stand as supporter. Meanwhile the African guys understood who the problem is... and what the cost is...
 
'''The 4 new scenarios'''
 
* '''The optimistic one'''
 
A miracle happens and Ukraine gets enough weapons to restore all its territory. The Donbas is Putin's minimal goal, so that still won't be easy.
 
The West actually has to deliver or he gets incredible. Taiwan would go down even faster if not done.
 
The argument that further weapons delivers are not possible is not valid. That would be a pure political decision. Concerns about own alliance duty is a red herring. The more weapons are transferred to Ukraine the more weapons Russia need to win the war and the less a threat it is elsewhere. Any war game - even common sense - tells you that sending droplets of reinforcement into the enemy's superior forces is a waste of own resources. It's very simple: If Ukraine is meant to win the war military-wise as soon as possible it needs to be the superior hitter.
 
: Puntin und Selenski wollen nicht miteinander verhandeln. Wie könnte der Krieg ohne Verhandlungen ''von selbst'' enden?
: Selbstredend auch keine sympathische Aussicht. Putin lässt den Krieg solange laufen bis soviele technische und menschliche Ressourcen erschöpft sind, dass die Ukrainer sich alles zurückgeholt haben und die russische Armee nicht mehr in der Lage ist, Gebiete erneut zu besetzen. Dann hat Putin die Möglichkeit voll und ganz in der Opferrolle aufzugehen. Eigentlich werden Niederlagen nicht eingestanden. Sie passieren still und heimlich und werden versucht umzudeuten. In diesem Fall müsste er eine Ausnahme machen und an seine jetzige Propaganda anknüpfen? Russland hätte nicht einfach gegen die Ukraine verloren, sondern viel mehr gegen die USA und anderen NATO-Staaten. Gegen den vereinten Westen. ''Gegen diese Übermacht kann man ja nur verlieren...'' Mit den fehlenden Ressourcen wäre es dann auch den Hardlinern nicht möglich eine Fortsetzung des Krieges zu fordern, zumal Atomwaffen auch keine echten Möglichkeiten bieten. Putin könnte sagen, dass er alles mögliche probiert hat, aber dass es nun vorbei ist. ''Wenn ihr die Ukraine haben wollt, ja den geht doch selber an die Front...'' <!--[https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-zehn-irrtuemer-die-der-sieg-in-cherson-widerlegt-hat-ld.1712721 Auf der Krim lässt man schon Schützengräben ausheben.]--> Nach russischer Propaganda war es noch nicht einmal ein Krieg. Es müsste also noch nicht mal eine Einfrierung des Konfliktes geben wie in Korea. Ironischerweise würde zumindest die Ukraine Mauern hochziehen, weil sie sich bedroht sieht und Sicherheitsgaratien nur begrenzt vertraut.
:: Will man dem [https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Buergerkrieg-in-Russland-Geheimdienst-FSB-befuerchtet-Putsch-gegen-Putin-article23731398.html Bericht über den FSB] glauben schenken, könnte Putin dazu übergehen Prigoschin und Kadyrow im letzten Schritt zu verheizen, bevor sie ihm selbst gefährlich werden können. ... Pokerface.
:: Nach [https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100085850/ukraine-krieg-wladimir-putins-verzweiflung-waechst.html ukrainischen Twitter-Angaben] hat Russland etwa die Hälfte seiner Raketen verbraucht. Pi mal Daumen reichen die noch ein Jahr, umgebaute S-300 eingeschlossen. Wird Russland bis dahin die Raketenproduktion ausbauen können?
 
* '''The realistic one'''
 
Putin will keep Donbas and the black sea coast under control.
 
Probably the relationship between Ukraine and Germany will be permanently damaged.
 
:There is already a suspicion that the Ukraine is not supposed to win. '''The stab-in-the-back myth''' was to be heard from Johannes Hano in ZDF when he quoted Ukrainians "What the hell is the West waiting for?" On the quiet Ukrainians start to think that the West, especially Germany, doesn't deliver enough weapons on purpose so Putin can have the Donbas as face-saving minimum goal. In scope of that myth this would go hand in hand with Scholz' and Macron's warning that Putin shall not be humiliated.
 
:Scholz also repeatedly said: "The Ukraine must not lose." He doesn't say "has to win". That is a difference, not nitpicking. (Baerbock actually said "win" but Scholz has the last word, so this doesn't count.) There are intermediate stages between lose and win if "to lose" means a complete takeover or destruction.
 
:The suspicion is strengthened by the official position of USA and the Baltic states that Russia is meant to be weakened so that it cannot start a new war for a very long time.
 
:Meanwhile opposition leader Merz asked Scholz whether he has "a second agenda [people don't know about]."
 
:Also, Habeck and Scholz ''admitted'' that Germany is "not doing everything possible" to help the Ukraine. These words could kinda go down the wrong pipe if ripped out of context. They said so because they want to prevent a war between Russia and NATO and therefore the risk of nuclear holocaust.
 
:The belated but eventual delivery of heavy weapons could be interpreted by the Ukrainians as "correction" to keep up the equilibrium so that the war keeps raging until both countries are mentally and physically exhausted.
 
:Russia will probably try to foster that myth to its own advantage.
:: 2022.08.16. [https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/16/putin-hits-out-at-the-us-over-ukraine-and-taiwan Putin:] "They need conflicts to retain their hegemony. That’s why they have turned the Ukrainian people into cannon fodder. [...]"
 
:Should this myth turn out true someday it will reveal another tragic. It would unwillingly and seemingly give the radical pacifists right. "Weapon prolong the war."
 
: The Ukrainians would have sacrificed their blood for us then to be called hypocrites and cowards.
 
: "States don't have friends. They have interests."
 
Since Europe couldn't jump over its shadow to support Ukraine with enough heavy weapons they gave Putin more possibilities to destroy infrastructure and occupy/block the ports that are crucial for making revenues. As consequence Europe will feel guilty and bleed half to death themselves by fully supporting Ukraine's rebuild.
 
After Putin's suicidal attack on Ukraine Russia will likely become a satellite to China. Russia revived the European part of NATO. Now with a secured back old superpower USA could concentrate more power in the Pacific. China's biggest strategic mistake during the pandemic was to not get mRNA vaccines, for ideological reasons [https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/china-perseveres-with-mrna-covid-shot-development-amid-omicron-commercial-2022-02-28/ they tried stick to their own attempts] and hampered its own growth. Russia and China showed themselves to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in geopolitical questions but given enough push and pull Russia could not just end up as satellite but as pinata, hanging there waiting to get economically slaughtered by a frustrated China to finally win against USA.
 
* '''The pessimistic one'''
 
Putin draws a full circle on Ukraine, step by step, moving along the boarders to take Moldavia and stop weapon deliveries from the West. Then Ukraine gets choked to death over many years.
 
* '''The worst case'''
 
Full-scale asymmetric war.
 
To say it with slightly changed words from Don Winslow: Democracies shouldn't have brought spoons to a knives fight.
 
Phase I
 
If Putin sabotages or destroys the corn harvest for another year or even longer he will get his geopolitical cake slice. Not the bigger pieces of Ukraine but in the AU because he can blackmail them and NATO can do little against it. China can passively support Russia's doing by simply buying large quantities of corn on the world market pushing the price even higher.
 
Phase II (option)
 
Africa should have been enabled to feed itself. Now it's too late. The situation of a starving overpopulation will take its toll. "Autarky is not a solution", my ass. If China and Russia come up with a true partnership in geopolitics Europe gets fucked. The refugee waves can be channeled to Europe functioning as "human weapons" - like during the Belarus border crisis but much more powerful because, unlike the Ukrainians, black people won't be welcomed by Europe. To maximize damage, waves from the overpopulated Afghanistan could be triggered simultaneously. And then the tone will be "thank you America for pushing Russia and China into kicking out asses while you sit on your far-away island. Thank you for nothing. May you become an idiocracy under Donald Trump and never talk to us again."
 
It's said that naturally most refugees stay in their country and hence this is just a "horror scenario". The difference is that this wouldn't be a "natural" dynamic. The question is whether Russia can effort the resources to prepare for an "African front", all the more as they are now under the eyes of an alerted NATO.
 
If Ukraine completely falls then China and Russia will dominate Africa first and then more and more parts of the remaining world. As soon as that happens Europe would need to truly unite and aim for technology-driven autarky so it doesn't become a satellite.
 
'''Asymmetric warfare'''
 
The Russians lack a clear supremacy to win the war so it would be plausible to intensify asymmetric attacks again.
 
As for the destroyed pipelines the question about who caused it is pretty tough.
 
{| class="wikitable" width="100%"
|-
!width="50%"| USA
! Russia
|-
|valign=top|
Pro:
* Biden wished NS2 to be ''dead''. An inactivation doesn't count as such. A literal destruction would have been needed.
* This ''destroyed'' the inner-German discussions of using NS2 for good.
* With the destruction of NS1 and NS2 Germany is even more certainly depending on LNG fracking gas. (This is usually a CT argument.)
* Pure speculation: After Russia's nuclear threatening the destruction of the pipelines could be a sign to Moskau to no further escalate or else pipelines for China and India will be damaged.
 
Contra:
* A few weeks ago the CIA warned about potential sabotages.
* '''The most important piece in this puzzle might be the observed drones around Norway's offshore oil fields. Besides NS1 and NS2, USA wouldn't go so far to destroy more energy infrastructure of befriended European nations. It is much more likely Russia is looking for more targets.'''
|valign=top|
Neutral:
* The detection of chemical traces from explosives proves nothing. It could have been a false-flag attack. (This can only be a first step.)
 
Pro:
* The gas prices went up.
* Bonus: Distraction from the referendum in the occupation territories.
* The fossile age is about to end. In the meantime Germany will basically rely on non-Russian sources. Therefore the Russian conclusion might be that the pipelines became negligible.
* Suspicious: The Russians were not really upset / surprised when the pipelines blew up.
* Pure speculation: This is a threatening against Europe. Other pipelines could be destroyed.
 
Contra:
* The gas prices went up but the effect was rather small since there were no more deliveries. Therefore the Russians must be really desperate to blow up their own pipes. An expensive repair with a German proportion is unlikely.
* A not marginal number of Germans supported the reopening/use of NS1 and NS2. The leverage on those people is now gone.
* The explosions happened near the time when the new Baltic Pipe from Norway to Poland opened. It would have been more plausible to blowup that pipe as well to have a stronger effect on the prices.
* There were ideas to repurpose the pipe for hydrogen (mixes).
|}
 
====China====
China demands its domestic economy to become resilient so that they can win the final power battle against USA.
 
Russia and China are backing up each other.
* They work on an alternative financial transaction system so that sanction on them lose their power. (How many years will its installment take?)
* China is working on its switch from coal to natural gas: that way Russia has a guaranteed income and five eyes and AUKUS member Australia gets damaged in multiple ways. China can later mix in hydrogen and even point the finger at [[wp:Coal_in_Australia|Australia for being an energetic dinosaur]].
 
----
 
You don't often see Xi smiling when he is involved in propaganda and military parades. It can be interpreted that he tries to create an image of himself being unemotional therefore a serious and thoughtful leader. Given his special past it is also possible that he is thinking about Mao in that moments. '''<!--ARTE documentation: Die neue Welt des Xi Jjinping -->[http://web.archive.org/web/20220228222215/https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/078193-000-F/die-neue-welt-des-xi-jinping/ He knows very well what propaganda and ideology can cause.] The [[wp:Cultural_Revolution|cultural revolution]] is estimated to have caused up to 20 million casualties. And he is a survivor of it.''' -- There were two roads for him to go. A more democratic one and totalitarian one. His most important adviser told him to go with totalitarianism as a necessary evil. The efficiency of  totalitarianism allows for faster economic development but also creates awkward costs (collateral damage), "the need" to get rid of dissidents. His own family suffered from such practices. He needed many tries and a false identity to be accepted by the communist party. This might explain why even the sale of Western, seemingly uncritical books about his life are not welcomed so that his cult of personality is protected. Inconvenient questions shall not be asked. The aggressive nationalism (One China) is core to transport the Chinese Dream, promised prosperity for everyone. '''The paradoxical consequence of China's rise in power is that as stronger they get as the less they need Taiwan. The longer China waits to annex Taiwan the easier it gets military-wise but the more they will damage their inner logic of the narrative'''. Right now Taiwan is a technological important resource. That will certainly not stay that way. Everybody sees the threat of being dependent to it. USA and Europa are building now chip factories on their own territory to mitigate the dependency. In this lays the threat for Taiwan of getting expendable to Western partners.
 
A spicy side note of history is that the USA under Kissinger and <!--Die neue Seidenstraße - Poker um eine neue Weltordnung, ARTE Doku-->Nixon agreed on that Taiwan is a part of One China (<nowiki>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fkR17cblEQ&t=1246s</nowiki>, private video).
: Censorship in a democracy is still censorship. Normally, comments just get disabled if content is heating up the crowds. Obviously, ARTE was told by our US friends to make the video unavailable on Youtube (Google, US-owned platform) since it is still accessible on ARTE's own website hosted on a European server: http://web.archive.org/web/20221016234812/https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/082808-000-A/poker-um-eine-neue-weltordnung/
 
===Zones of influence===
Overall influence:
 
China
* [[wp:Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation#Membership|Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)]]
** Afghanistan (even tough Afghanistan is referred to as "graveyard of empires", Russia tries to gain new influence by [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/exclusive-afghan-taliban-sign-deal-russian-oil-products-gas-wheat-2022-09-27/ trading])
** Russia
*** [[wp:Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization|CSTO]]
*** Hungary (opportunist)
** mediocre: India (opportunist)
* mediocre: [[wp:Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership|RCEP]] members
* AU ("pragmatic" investments and loan traps)
* mediocre: nations being part of "[[wp:Belt_and_Road_Initiative|belt and road initiative]]", built infrastructure, bought ports, Chinese secret state loans
** Serbia (shared influence by Russia and [https://web.archive.org/web/20210418050030/https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-04/china-serbien-corona-impfstoff-propaganda-eu-balkan China], bad mood in Balkan states because of creeping progress in EU membership)
** Portugal? (investments)
** Greece? (investments)
* advantage of having most rare earth elements
* after annexing Taiwan, the next hard nut to crack would be India and deescalate future resource conflicts, if China can reach some form of neutrality with them the road to a "Chinese Century" lies all open
 
Greater Middle East ([[wp:Sunni_Islam#Adherents|Sunni Islam]])? (Or just future SCO satellites?)
* normalization: http://web.archive.org/web/20220702220653/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/world/middleeast/turkey-erdogan-saudi-arabia.html
* Saudi-Arabia as leader and Türkiye as befriended nation? (Türkiye is special as it has connections to the West by EU and NATO, important economic ties to Russia and it is an Muslim nation.)
** Türkiye's latest blackmailing (2022.05.14) has just proofed again that they are a mafia-tainted autocracy. Should NATO and China start to beat up each other they can turn to team number three, let them be the "king maker" and split the bribe.
*** '''Türkiye could become a Trojan Horse for NATO as it cannot be kicked out.''' The opportunist Erdogan showed interest in a [https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Erdogan-plant-Mitgliedschaft-in-oestlichem-Buendnis-article23595727.html SCO membership]. Also, he repeatedly threatened NATO member Greece. Türkiye switching sides would mean to leave major parts of the Black Sea to the influence zone of SCO and Georgia would be degraded to a full-fledged satellite state. As soon as Türkiye joins SCO NATO would need to dissolve and reassemble a second later together with Sweden and Finland.
** Oh look who is [https://archive.ph/pSytN looking for backup]. Spite China's Islamophobia Saudi-Arabia and co. could become befriended - or in China's worst case neutral - partners during a hot USA-China-conflict. The Islamic world and China share an autocratic ruling style and a subliminal up to an open Anti-Americanism.
 
USA
* First level partners: Five Eyes
* Second level partners?: Israel, Switzerland
* Third level partners?: NATO, Japan, Saudi-Arabia, South Korea, Philippines (We know Germany is a "third level partner" so there exist other levels of partnership...)
* Fourth level partners?: other geopolitical primed nations
 
EU (Alternative, improbable future path. This is more of a backup plan.)
* As EU will never be able to speak and act in unison for bigger initiatives the only option left for them is to become a "community of autarky".
 
----
 
[[wp:United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1|United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1]] indicates that following states have an anti-USA, pro-Russian, pro-China position, consequently shows that they are directly in Russia's and China's zone of influence:
 
In total dependency:
: Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria
 
Under strong influence:
: Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Cuba, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Zimbabwe
----
 
Explicit military influence:
: [[wp:List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases|List of countries with overseas military bases]]
: [[wp:List_of_United_States_military_bases|List of United States military bases]]
: [[wp:List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad|List of Russian military bases abroad]]
 
==Braindump section==
===Klimadiktatur===
Das Wort "'''[https://www.idz-jena.de/wsddet/wsd11-07 Klimadiktatur]'''" und "Ökodiktatur" beinhaltet wie auch "Klimawandel" ein dem rechten Spektrum nützliches [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBwQtCgcJ4g Nudging]. Statt zu verharmlosen, wird diesmal das Wort "Diktatur" genutzt, um Angst zu schüren. Vertreter klimaschonender Politik sollen so diskreditiert werden. Klimaschutz sei nur ein Vorwand, um die Macht an sich zu reißen und den einfachen Bürger zu schikanieren und zu kontrollieren.
Das Wort "'''[https://www.idz-jena.de/wsddet/wsd11-07 Klimadiktatur]'''" und "Ökodiktatur" beinhaltet wie auch "Klimawandel" ein dem rechten Spektrum nützliches [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBwQtCgcJ4g Nudging]. Statt zu verharmlosen, wird diesmal das Wort "Diktatur" genutzt, um Angst zu schüren. Vertreter klimaschonender Politik sollen so diskreditiert werden. Klimaschutz sei nur ein Vorwand, um die Macht an sich zu reißen und den einfachen Bürger zu schikanieren und zu kontrollieren.


Line 730: Line 396:
:: [...] NATO should monitor and assess the impact of climate change on security in the coming decade and increase its situational awareness of threats that could emanate from consequent heightened activity and increased freedom of navigation. In support of this goal, NATO should increase situational awareness, early warning and information sharing on climate and security, including by Allies considering the establishment of a '''NATO Centre of Excellence on Climate and Security''' or adding climate to the NATO Centre of Excellence on Energy Security. [...]
:: [...] NATO should monitor and assess the impact of climate change on security in the coming decade and increase its situational awareness of threats that could emanate from consequent heightened activity and increased freedom of navigation. In support of this goal, NATO should increase situational awareness, early warning and information sharing on climate and security, including by Allies considering the establishment of a '''NATO Centre of Excellence on Climate and Security''' or adding climate to the NATO Centre of Excellence on Energy Security. [...]


===5-Grad-Plus-Erde===
====5-Grad-Plus-Erde====
[https://archive.ph/T53B6 Jor, man kann natürlich argumentieren, dass RCP8.5 und RCP6.0 unrealistisch sind.] Oder man macht sich Gedanken zu was unterschätzte Selbstverstärkung, RCP4.5 und die Kipppunkte führen (können). Höhere RCP-Äquivalente? Ich persönlich glaube ja auch nicht, dass die gesamte Menschheit ausstirbt. Irgendein Rest moderne Zivilisation wird schon noch übrig bleiben. Aber man muss es ja nicht drauf anlegen, das Restrisiko Realität werden zu lassen. Oder?
[https://archive.ph/T53B6 Jor, man kann natürlich argumentieren, dass RCP8.5 und RCP6.0 unrealistisch sind.] Oder man macht sich Gedanken zu was unterschätzte Selbstverstärkung, RCP4.5 und die Kipppunkte führen (können). Höhere RCP-Äquivalente? Ich persönlich glaube ja auch nicht, dass die gesamte Menschheit ausstirbt. Irgendein Rest moderne Zivilisation wird schon noch übrig bleiben. Aber man muss es ja nicht drauf anlegen, das Restrisiko Realität werden zu lassen. Oder?


Revision as of 19:24, 15 January 2023

Order of events

Maybe filling in some numbers later to make this a full-fledged timeline. For now I only need the order of events.

This is a rough summary. Details may or may not be added.

  • WCG happens
  • Bioattack in Suez (Griffin, GATC "indirectly" involved)
  • Artificial mycorrhiza happens
  • Operation Hotdog (Kimura, Griffin)
  • Barabas and others died or went MIA, Griffin frustrated
  • Xeno hybrids (mutated mycorrhiza with new symbionts, begin of a new "BioCrisis" that overshadows the others)
  • Puppet master program (last chance for winning the war, Griffin knows GATC went too far and kills GATC sci and joins TCTF)
  • Blackstars happens (GATC soldiers form merc group)
  • ACC construction
  • Feng: "after Suez, research must be regulated", sci prisons
  • Bioc tech happens, Blackstars destroys the company of Dakosta's father
  • Griffin takes Bioc tech, gives it to WCG (trust gain, used for GV's construction)
  • GOP happens
  • Jamie dies
  • CDC, Walker sends Hanna to GV
  • Standoff, Hasegawa
  • Hasegawa, Kerr join Syndicate
  • [Weeks passes until Hanna is invited to GV]
  • Marburg incidence
  • Hanna Curtis airplane chat
  • [Hanna uses a MRSA "blocker"]
  • Hanna, Blake, GV
  • Kimura, Blue mountain worker
  • Kimura gets sample from GV, Hanna ok
  • Kimura kills worker
  • Hanna talks with Bertram
  • Kimura contacts then kidnaps Pensatore
  • Avatara finishes Daodan Chrysalis
  • Griffin, Iron Demon takeover
  • Avatara tries to get back Pensatore, Syn. evacuates/TCTF lab raid (soon after Kerr left the area, the TCTF arrives)
  • Kerr takes Mai to TCTF
  • Mai Biosafty, Pest control (assassination plans for Muro)
  • Maria (Hanna) joins TCTF
  • Mai fake OP (Maria, Kerr fool Griffin)
  • Corruption of Hasegawa by Kimura
  • Shinatama, intro
  • Jack, Intro
  • Mukade, Intro
  • Churi, Intro
  • Muro, Ryu, Tomo, Kimura vs Strikers
  • Traton, Intro
  • Jack's father almost killed
  • Griffin, Iron Demon
  • Kumo sends killers after Griffin
  • Griffin, Mai and the reindeers (indoc)
  • Takahashi, intro
  • Griffin, Victor planning against Kumo (to eliminate Syn. threat for Neo-Tokio)
  • Griffin, Mai, Daya
  • Vendret, intro
  • Muro (note to self: do more 'chapter rotations' of Muro and Mai)
  • - Life in the Camp
  • - Friendly rivalry with Ryu
  • - Muros's missions with Traton and Daodandroids
  • - Saomi, GATC Z
  • - Alliance with BGI, Sarai, intro
  • Churi, Sledgehammer, bar
  • - Car bomb, death of Tomo
  • - Furies
  • - Further assassination attempts from Z
  • - Death of Pensatore
  • - Death of Hasegawa
  • - Exil of Traton
  • - Sturmanderung plans, Muro
  • - Dispute with Ryu
  • - War against BGI
  • - Peace treaty with BGI (temporary, they build Iron Demons)
  • Sturmänderung (Oni 1.5) including missing chapters
  • Mukade reanimated, enslaved by Pensatore
  • Pensatore rescues Shinatama (Shin questions her own ego, is something of her soul missing? Hence removes "(a)tama" from her name, pun: tama = soul, atama = head (in Japanese), also: "Shin" is a base for the word "die", so in total: "died without a soul" or "without a head you die")
Inner conflict is intensified by Mai's cultural background.
* Her mother was American and her father Japanese.
** Western thinking: Robots are dead matter; Japanese thinking: in Shinto pretty much everything can have a soul
** The TCTF does not assume SLD are alive but simulated. On the other hand Shin is based on Mai's original personality and might have a free will - something Pensatore asked her. How much of a copy are "Brain engramms"? If simulated brain activity - or their "results" - are indistinguishable from "real" - why not grand the "host" human rights?
  • GATC Z fails to eliminate Muro (Imago stage)
  • Mai destroys Syn. mountain complex
  • Oni 2 happens

Thought lab

Story

Open threads

  • Hardy's title names and themes for Oni 2 and 3 - can we recycle some aspects?
  • Exploring Mai/Jack story arc based on music album The Unforgiving.
  • AI of GOP desert vs. Muro
  • Deadly Brain arc (Neuronal Processing Units)
  • Green Phönix, evolutionary forerunners of Phyllions (Mai teaches other hosts how to establish symbiosis with daodanized plants. She is seen as a candidate for "New Gaia".)


Merging

I will try to fix inconsistencies later between the summaries.


Summary attempt 2 (focus on Avatara)

I always wanted to introduce some folks that get "ancient". Their emergence is inevitable. They are the consequence of technological progress and human's wish to improve themselves, resulting in longer and longer lifetimes, eventually in their potentially biological immortality.
The Ancients are the first of their kind which puts them into challenges of all sorts. Daodan hosts have a good chance to reach biological immortality before others do and survive possible wars in that new phase of unrest. In theory peaceful coexistence is possible but unlikely. The human mind evolves slower than his tools and powers. The threat of a new world war is not banned. The question is can they survive another one and if yes, will they learn enough from it?
The new summary attempt will only change few aspects. But the technological dimension will be expanded one more time. That expansion looks almost marginal to the existing material but its aftermath will be substantial for some characters.

[Notes/preliminary]

  • Syndicate Sky Drive (SSD, ambivalent abbreviation on purpose)
The Network (Comguy/Controller group) aims to create new information processing and transportation means to eventually outsmart WCG and TCTF.
This happens by the abuse of city domes (graphene shields) to create an alternative internet which technological background is completely unknown to the TCTF. The Network's laser technology can create phonon within the graphene structures. The shield is not build homologous which allows for more directed phonon propagation. At another location a second laser is used to read out the information of the phonons.
  • As the city domes can fail to function or are shut down by authorities the next step is the development of a more universal infrastructure, SSD2. The Network experimented with nanotechnology to manipulate particle creation within the atmosphere. When they heard of the Bioc, a geo-engenering project, they were all ear. They eventually plan to let erupt some volcanoes to shoot massive quantities of Bioc material into the higher atmospheres. And from that on everything could change. Information control, whether control, control of solar winds/energy. But for that the airborne bioc needs itself a control instance just like its counterpart on the ground. The Network plans to capture Daya to alter and upload her mind to SSD2. When Daya was captured for biosafty concerns the Network ruins Mukade's objective and forces her bioc infection to spread and reach a critical mass. Their plans works out to the point that she successfully merges Daodan and Bioc. However, their attempt to alter her mind fails with her escape from the Syndicate facility. The second attempt also fails when they use Pensatore as a tool to literally let her explode together with the Bioc main mass in Green Village.
  • The Network manages to build on the airborne fragments resulting in the birth of an atmospheric AI. They need it all the more as Avatara hunts them for having murdered Shinatama. The Network is then independent from satellites and can kick off a destructive collision cascade (Kessler syndrome) to greatly hamper WCG's and Avatara's communications eventually rendering them incapable of acting quickly enough to win that war.
  • Avatara's counter measure against SSD2 started with a Bioc pattern injected into the Tanzania craton (old continental core mass). More exactly, the Bioc worked on the black magma of the Ol Doinyo Lengai volcano. The carbon-rich materials were prepared to create self-assembling structures in the atmosphere once the volcano would be blown up with a series of timed nuclear detonations. For this purpose uran was mined near the Selous Game Reserve. As the Bioc operated in kilometers of depth nobody else than Avatara was really aware of the events. At the same time, the craton is interesting for diamond mining. The diamond particles were processed to have N-V centers, therefor generating more QC building blocks.
  • "Fighting fire with fire." Avatara thought he acted adequately to the situation by taking over the airborne AI of the Network with a competing infrastructure (basically a massive hardware trojan). Avatara had to act quickly. The SSD2 AI, Aether, potentially allows for weather control, distribution of sunlight, channeling of solar wind by manipulating the magnetosphere. Ripping a hole into the magnetosphere by supraconducting structures would allow the solar radiation to hit Earth and render good parts of the planet inhabitable. A risk that must be prevented. It turned out that Avatara underestimated the political shockwaves within human communities and therefor the implications on Gaia. Also, the AI of nature herself was mad that Avatara set an end to the annual wildebeest migration at the Ol Doinyo Lengai, sacrificing others of millions of animal lifes, bringing nuclear contamination to the ecosystem and causing a global dimming that endangered all photosynthesis. It destroyed her trust in Avatara almost completely.
  • By using a captured proxy of Avatara the Network was eventually ready to write new core functions of Gaia - an act that must be authorized by Gaia herself, Avatara and the omega groups. The threat of an airborne AI (v1) was a red herring. The irony was that Avatara improved that airborne AI but also lost control over it again together with Gaia's trust.
  • In an act of desperation Avatara establishes the Mind Seal. This can be seen as an extension of the WCG science prison concept but affecting all humans and "unapproved" artificial life (AL).
  • The two volcano eruptions needed a clean up of the atmosphere. Inverse tornadoes concentrated the particles which were collected on the ground to build the Guardians meant to harness the human intellect and protect it from self-destruction.
  • Some Network members planed to upload themselves to SSD2. Their most cybernized member actually has no other choice, he had turned himself into an extreme NPU to better connect with computers. It was slowly killing him.
  • Mukade hold Pensatore and Hasegawa both hostage in a BGI deep sea research and mining complex. Pensatore freed himself by letting him devour by the Bioc. When the later actions destroyed the complex Hasegawa drowned in flooding corridors. The destruction set the Bioc free that devoured Pensatore before and did the same with Hasegawa. However, Hasegawa's damaged consciousness remains captured within the dark deep sea grave.
  • Pensatore: "I sacrificed you, Hasegawa, to save the world, as you sacrificed your son Muro." (Echo of Christian mythology: god sacrificed his only son to safe all humans and Jesus resists the devil in the desert who offers him all empires.) The theme evolved by coincidence as GOP is a religious power set in a desert location. Story-wise this can be used to underline Muro's transformation into "a more good man", rejecting GOP and their sole claim for peace after bringing Armageddon. Muro is no longer a man of pure madness. It shall remain the idea that humans can achieve more paradisaical conditions just if they wanted to by using technology and true cooperation. Of course an naive thought in face of reality and so Muro returns to Ryu and the Syndicate to "minimize evil". He knows he has to make up for Sturmänderung and the corrupted people that believed in it and used any means necessary. In that perspective Pensatore can be seen as evil or the devil himself, trying to save humans from God's plan (Daodan) as Pensatore is too much concerned for the ego of people, to stay in control, while getting himself consumed by hate.
  • It takes ages until Muro finds this father and frees him from the grasp of Gaia and her subordinates (King of Styx and other). "It took me a while to get back to you, dad." The reunions remains marred as Hasegawa has lost most of his memories and they can't yet return to the planet's surface.
  • While Muro becomes the new ruler of the subterranean Bioc, Mai is on the surface transforming slowly into a part of nature, making her kind of a rival to Gaia which together the airborne AI has turned against all the other major players of the planet.
  • [?] (rival) kills Kimura and Mukade (done by Ryu and Muro). In the past Mukade spared his rivals life but that didn't made up for the other acts.
  • Avatara detects another personality in the dead Mukade (ego hybrida). The body hosted the consciousness of Kimura and Hasegawa, with the death of all biological cells only Pensatore's SLD cells remained. This Pensatore mind copy pretends to be on Avatara's sides. He aims to get rid of all Daodans and takes the name Pandora, officially working for META as Daodan hunter.
  • Pandora and Mai resemble memhunters, one getting into sync with society and the other becoming a rough agent. Mai continues to hunt technology crimes. Avatara sends her on the mission to take down the Network for good and end the Wizard war (see Mind Seal story).
  • Corruption of Gaia
  • Destruction of planet Earth (collision)

Summary attempt 1.5 (focus on Mai)

GATC administration wanted Mai to go for Green Village. They have a deal with WCG which needed quickly a scapegoat to calm the masses. In return GATC is rehabilitated as military force in the former US state regions and if things go well these states also regain partial sovereignty. That is at least the official version.

GATC told Mai to support the search for her father and that there are hints to be investigated in Green Village. “Now that the Syndicate declared war the WCG gives us access to new information regarding the Daodan. Also, we need you to take down some other symbionts who were not at Muro’s hideout.”

When Green Village was run over by Sarai and her troops Mai retreated. She was simply too powerful for Mai.

(After tracing the GATC transmission at ground zero of Muro's mountain compound Traton ask his BGI contacts to infiltrate the group because the double agent has connection to WCG men and that's not something Traton is good at dealing with. BGI uncovers GATC being a potential rival or rouge element, best to be eliminated from the global equation?)

In a next step BGI invaded GATC’s HQ and blackmailed them. Either they cancel their Daodan program or GATC will be blamed for genocide alongside Mai.

To fulfill BGI’s demands and carry out their own plan GATC set up a rigged scenario: Mai isn’t yet a very fear-inflicting monster (Imago) and they had no footage for WCG’s propaganda so they let fight their Daodan hosts against Mai.

Based on project Spare GATC replicated humans with Mai’s DNA. 13 replicas or “R” were produced to study different routes of hyperevolution.

Number symbolism: 12 functional R, 1 disfunctional R, Mai as first or 14th instance of her own (when all combined). (Will she have the size of "Mutant Muro"?)
As the "powerless" R has no functional cores to pass on, Mai can be seen as the "luckless" merge of 13. Who knows what role the "powerless" cores will play in the future...

When Blackstars got to know that HQ was invaded by an unknown group they decide to re-conquer the HQ. (All the more since in a decoy transmission BGI claimed to found a backup of Griffin’s snatched secured research which they will have decoded in 21 hours.) The administration and BGI cuts off Mai from the rest of her team and let her fight the heavily altered replica. However, Mai received help from a Shinobi (no associated with Mukade) to beat all R. At times he weakened some R and sabotaged their equipment, the administration gave him the means to to so. Mai follows Kojiro’s hint to obtain the Daodan cores of each R to boost her powers so she would stand a chance against the strongest R and Sarai one day. GATC administration hoped to push Mai finally into Imago stage by letting her obtain all cores and fighting nonstop. Sarai stood by to capture Mai.

In a final fight Sarai wounded Mai very badly with an anti-Daodan weapon. Mai managed to escape but felt into stasis shortly afterwards.

Griffin rescued her but one day Black Phönix found their hideout. In Griffin’s absence they capture Mai and transforms her into a mindless killing machine.

Meanwhile Muro escaped from the desert and joined Ryu. When Muro found out about Mai he tried to beat some sense back into her.

However Mai’s body and mind is fragmented by the experiments of Black Phönix. Her Daodan cores that needed to restore her memory and adaptions has been transplanted into soldiers of META. Griffin and friends sent her on missions to get back those cores, therefor restoring her full memory. That is to prepare her for fighting Sarai and Traton, head of META.

Summary attempt 1 (focus on GV)

GATC convinces Mai to join. How exactly do they do this?

They want to secure the Daodan production site and depot at Green Village. Also they want to find out what happened to Hasegawa and ask him how much advanced the Syndicate Daodan program really is.

Mai destroyed the ACCs. She is responsible for poisoning the people with polluted air. She needs to fix that. GATC makes her feel guilty which is an easy game.

GATC also names a fake reason: They are interested in her abilities. They try to bait her with pride. But as a host of a first generation Daodan, she can sense the presence of other symbionts among the GATC team.

Bonus: The administration wants Mai under their control since they plan to trade her against sovereignty, re-establishing USA.

This is recognized by the GATC troops as a dangerous game as the whole organization could be stigmatized as terrorists group if WCG don't agree on the deal. As the administration wants to secure the Daodan technology and depot, this makes it even easier for the WCG to create a suspicion among the population and blame them for the Black Season. ("What are you thinking GATC were doing there?" Traton discovered the puppetmaster in WCG politician circle.

Traton negotiates with WCG to create META. Pensatore's Keslersyndrom cuts off WCG from satellite communication. They need the Syndicates internet and drone technologies.

In order to get back the Daodan depot WCG attacks GV. They don't ask the Syndicate as they might keep the DCs for themselves. They don't know that the Syndicate Daodan depot selfdestruct after Muro's life signal was terminated. A security against rivals. Only Sayomi has one as reserve. So only a half of Camp Sturmanderung is daodanized. Sayomi's body receives very heavy physical treatment to speed up the transformation process. She wants to hunt down Mai for vengeance and to ensure the Striker's loyalty. "We are one family. I will continue to protect your future. Just like Muro has envisioned it. We will surpass these humans."

Traton: "You aren't strong enough yet [against Konoko]. Why don't you pay the old man [Griffin] a visit first?"

Sayomi in Griffin hospital room: "No. You don't know me. And it's not important. But it's important that you are still alive. I will make you pay for taking him away from me." "Who?" Saomi puts Griffin on fire. "You will die just like he did. Burning and buried under rocks."

Sayomi returns from her liquidation mission. Wrath for Griffin's interference in the mountain complex, followed by Muro's death.

BGI sends also their agents to GV to control the situation. Iron Demon 2.0 is used to hunt the DC hosts. (Model v1.0 was destroyed by Mai when she visited BGI HQ. In a cutscene you can see the unfinished, second model. - Checking the google docs later for consistency.)

Traton: "The damage control teams reported our latest upgrades were meant to clean the air even better. - Can we use that information? - Also get me Mukade. Or shot him. I don't care. Set a bounty to one trillion credits." "Huh, that's a lot of money." "And the end of the world. It's worth nothing."

Old Shinobi clan is reactivated to hunt the traitor. Shinatama is going to defend him as she knows that his brain engrams are crucial for Hasegawa's reanimation (just like Shinatama's engrams can be used to reanimate Mai). Avatara tries to remain a neutral bystander.

Operation Proteus: Traton declares Griffin death as justified as WCG and TCTF and Mai caused the black season. Also, his teams were working on repairing/upgrading the ACCs. Traton: "They will not negate with us. We must increase the pressure."

Video clips show Hasegawa working on the DC. It contains information of the old lab. Mai and GATC cannot resist to search for that lab. The Syndicate and Sayomi awaits them. Mai manages to kill the Syndicate team. Saomi barely survives and returns to African HQ. She gets banned by Ryu and his Sniper/Shinobi fellow Okamin.

--

In consideration:

Mai and her GATC team has left Green Village as it was invaded by WCG military. In the lab she should have found something that helps her. Maybe a Daodan upgrade. A telomere regeneration code so that she doesn't age so fast like Muro and something "useful" information. After their trip to Hasegawa's second lab they sneak back into the village. WCG made it a quarantine zone after seeing from close distance what the Bioc infection means. At some point she should meet Ryu. Since Hasegawa isn't in his second lab he should be in a another Syndicate-owned location. Anyway, probably Ryu is going after Green Village too after having killed Kumo who started the chain-reaction.

It seems only a matter of time before WCG decides to extinguish the whole region with a series of nuclear bombs. Also, the nuclear radiation attracts the bioc main mass which degrades them. It's Pensatore's massive energy beam* that overloads the structure while killing almost everyone on the battlefield including the GOP creatures and Mukdade. However, the habitants are going to survives in Daya's bioc catacombs (resemble a second protection layer like a over-dimensionized cell nucleus) while Konoko stands on burned ground. Mai collapses in the believe that she came to late to somehow evacuate the people. Hasegawa was revealed to have drowned and Jack was apparently hanged by a city mob during the Proteus operation.

* Mukade shows that he is not longer under Pensatore's control when he encounters Daya and Nishio on the battlefield. That means that the ninja is of no longer use and Pensotore gives in to his desire for revenge. However, in attempt to eradicate Mukade, the microwave beam creates another enigma. Nishio's pulverized graphene shield becomes resembled, creating a giant crystallized structure with an carbonized orb in its center. It had conducted the energy into bioc main mass and has withstood the following explosion. During all the years, the orb remains untouched as a war memorial. It is said that at dark, cold winter nights aurora sinks down to the orb, guiding lost souls to find a place to rest.
Pensatore: "You think that the Bioc is a danger? I totally agree with you. And you are doing a great job in concentrating it in this area. However, you are also a threat to all of us. After this incidence you will continue where you left off. Avatara is your next target in your egoistic plan, isn't it?! - I cannot allow that." (Shinatama will blame Avatara for sparing Penstore's life because he is his mental father and saved him from Mukade's control.)


5 years later: Mai becomes reanimated by Phönix.

....

Maybe I should try out a plotline without letting Mai fall into a coma. It feels like it shortens her actions too much.

....

BGI backups the rebellion against META as they fear to be eradicated if they don't do something. BGI tries to recruit Mai as she is one of very few Daodan host that isn't working for META. Shinatama tries to help her while fighting against Pandora, META's Daodan hunter. Traton is also killed by her. Avatara watch her preparations in their R&D location. "Looks like you are going to kill even more." "And you just don't seem to care. -- Be honest." "Is that a reproach?" "Well, you don't choose any side. Yet, you are probably the most powerful person on this planet and you don't even try to fight evil." "Is it evil to seek economic dominance. You all support this [capitalistic] system. But as soon as it doesn't pay off you turn against it. META is restricting technology. I don't see anything wrong with that. Humans are destructive. As for your friend Mai Hasegawa, why should she not be punished by the law. She destroyed the ACCs. It's a fact." Shinatama was stopped re-assembling her rifle for a moment. In continuing she said: "Sometimes you still surprise me." "How that?" "That someone that smart can be so stupid."

Individual topics

Autarkie

Notizen: 

Globalization, deglobalization, sustainability, efficiency, autarky, global autarky, globalized autarky ...

Sinn und Unsinn von Autarkie

Bei Autarkie denke ich immer gerne an eine hypothetische Kolonie auf einem fremden Planeten, die keine Unterstützung von der Erde erhält. Die Kolonie kann es sich nicht leisten mehr Ressourcen - Sauerstoff, Essen und alles andere - zu verbrauchen, als sie selber bereitstellen kann. Wenn man das Sonnenlicht und die Wärmestrahlung vernachlässigt, ist es im Groben und Ganzen ein geschlossenes System. Das Überleben der Crew hängt von dieser einfachen Logik ab.

Beim Planeten Erde, diesem besseren Felsbrocken in Vakuum des Weltraums, ist es nicht viel anders. Unser Planet ist eine riesige Weltraumkolonie. Allerdings lässt uns die schiere Größe dieser "Kolonie" und die natürlichen Ressourcen das oft vergessen. Wir können diese Ressourcen abbauen und nutzen und das in einem immer schnelleren Tempo, aber irgendwann werden natürliche Grenzen erreicht. Es ist schlicht unmöglich einen grenzüberschreitenden Verbrauch aufrechtzuerhalten ohne unser eigenes Überleben dabei zu gefährden.

Der Ressourcenverbrauch von Menschen in Industrienationen beträgt fast drei Erden. Die Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer streben den gleichen Lebensstandard an. Kurzum, insgesamt betrachtet leben wir nicht autark, nicht eigenständig. Da wir keine drei Erden haben, leben wir stattdessen auf Kredit. Die Hypothek wird immer größer. Probleme werden in die Zukunft verlagert - bis der Tag anbricht, an dem die Rechnung nicht mehr zu begleichen ist und theatralisch ausgedrückt alles den nicht mehr vorhandenen, austrockneten Bach runter geht. Wir wären nicht viel schlauer als eine zusammenbrechende Bakterienkolonie gewesen. Der kollektive Verstand der Menschheit war anscheinend einfach nicht viel größer ...

Planetarisch gesehen müssen wir insgesamt autark leben, mit dem auskommen, was auch auf lange Zeit vertretbar nutzbar ist. Und idealerweise sollte auch jeder Nationalstaat autark sein. Ein Staat dürfte nur so viele Menschen beherbergen wie er selbst versorgen kann. Das würde ein nachhaltiges Leben und Wirtschaften geradezu garantieren. Der Nachteil wäre, dass dies höchst ineffizient wäre. Erst der Handel ermöglicht überhaupt die nennenswerte Besiedlung mancher Gebiete -- nicht weil das Gebiet überhaupt wenig Ressourcen hat, sondern weil ein paar wenige Arten von Ressourcen wie Metalle fehlen.

Menschen treiben seit jeher Handel, um Waren zu erhalten zu denen sie selbst kein Zugriff haben, die sie selbst nur schwer herstellen können oder die sie aus psychologischen Gründen einfach nur gerne haben würden - Luxus.

Andererseits ist absolute Autarkie auch eher die Ausnahme. Selbst viele nicht Kolonien bildende Bakterien kennen Kooperation. Und bei multizellularen Leben ist Kooperation (gegenseitige Abhängigkeit) schon fast überdeutlich sichtbar. Dieses Konzept gewinnt an Stärke je mehr Zellen bzw. "Individuen" involviert sind.

Familie, Gruppe, Dorf, Stadt, Nation, Region/Wirtschaftsblock, globaler Markt. Die Effizienz kann mit dem Umfang von Kooperation immer weiter steigen. 

Eng an die Kooperation ist Spezialisierung und damit Arbeitsteilung gebunden.

Plus: Je mehr Individuen existieren desto mehr Wissen wird generiert. (Zu viel Aukarkie bremst Entwicklung.)

Sinn und Unsinn von Globalisierung

Transportkosten (Nur weil man um den Globus schippern kann, sollte man es nicht tun. CO2 = versteckte Kosten (Klimawandel))
3D-Drucker nutzen. Etwas, dass in Kanada designt wurde, kann auch Australien geprintet werden. Der Transport entfällt.
3D-Drucker sind ein schönes Beispiel wie eine Symbiose aus Globalisierung (Wissen/Kooperation) und Autarkie (lokale, "eigene" Produktion) aussehen kann.

"Der Markt regelt das." vs. "Ein Scheiß regelt der Markt."

Globalisierung outsourced Probleme des Kapitalismus in andere Regionen. (Was kann das Lieferkettengesetz leisten?)

Schaffung und Ausnutzung von Abhängigkeiten. (Theoretisch würde Autarkie dies verhindern und für Gerechtigkeit sorgen.
Autarkie steht Geopolitik und Imperialismus entgegen.)

Sinn und Unsinn der Positive-Sum-Theory.

Ausbeutung Gesellschaft 

Globalisierung kann Nationalstaaten und ganze Regionen in latenter Weise destabilisieren.

Effizienz als Risikofaktor (zu starke Spezialisierung schafft Anfälligkeit für Störungen)

Eine totale Deglobalisierung wäre nicht sinnvoll - gleichzeitig würde der Umbau selbst Ressourcen auch verbrauchen.
Upgrades für Effizienzsteigerungen können eine eher positive Perspektive vermitteln:
möglichst viel Wohlstandsbewahrung bei gleichzeitiger Schonung der Umwelt.
"It is easier to give people something than taking something away from them." (Realpolitical break through strategy.)

Je höher das technologische Level einer Zivilisation desto mehr Gebiete können autark genutzt werden.

Urban lebende Menschen in Wüstengebieten sollte Aquaponik und Vertical Farming mit Solarenergie verbinden.
(Wasserverlust durch möglichst geschlossene Systeme gering halten,)


[...]

Die ideale Form des Zusammenlebens wäre eine ausbalancierte, globalisierte Autarkie.

Die Menschheit sollte sich als einen multizellulären Organismus begreifen, in welchem das Gehirn sich nicht ständig fragt, "welchem anderen Organ kann ich jetzt die Ressourcen klauen?" 


Langzeitperspektive: Lebensstandard aller kann auch wieder steigen, einfach durch weiteren Fortschritt, der bestehende Strukturen effizienter und nachhaltig macht. (Energiegewinnung kann dekarbonisiert, sodass sie den Treibhauseffekt nicht länger stärkt. Außerdem können mit Effizienzsteigerungen sogar dazu führen, dass mit weniger Energie mehr Arbeit erledigt wird.)

These: Autarkie begünstigt Aggressionen anderer Staaten, weil fehlende Abhängigkeiten sie motivieren Gewalt anzuwenden.

Wandel durch Handel gilt als gescheitert. Abhängigkeiten haben "nichts" gebracht. Sie können eine dämpfenden Wirkung haben. Letztendlich ist das politische System entscheidend, nicht das wirtschaftliche System. Ein Diktator der unbedingt Krieg führen will, wird das auch bei eigenen Abhängigkeiten tun.
Globalisierte Autarkie

Wenn eine Großmacht in allen Wirtschaftszweigen führend in Entwicklung und Export ist, hat es die Möglichkeit kleinere Staaten durch die Dynamiken des Marktes in den Ruin zu treiben oder auf unbestimmte Zeit klein zu halten. (EU vs. Afrika)

Eine auf Koexistenz ausgelegte globalisierte Autarkie würde bedeuten den kleineren Staaten Nischen zuzugestehen, sodass jeder mindestens eine sichere Einkommensquelle hat und gemessen am globalen Durchschnitt einen fairen Wohlstand erreichen kann.

Biokratie westlicher Prägung

Pensatore's ursprüngliche Version. (Nationale Biokratie.)

Biokratie chinesischer Prägung

Feng's Adaption. (Nationale Biokratie.)

Xi's Idee einer Schicksalsgemeinschaft der Menschheit hat einige Schnittmenge zur Biokratie und globalisierte Autarkie. Dass sich Xi hinter den schönen Worten noch anderes denkt, sei mal für ein Moment beiseite gestellt.

Ziel dieser Sektion ist es eine Biokratie "chinesischer Prägung" zu skizzieren, um somit Überlegungen für eine globale (chinesisch-westlich) Biokratie zu ermöglichen.

[...]

WCG-Ideologie

Um die Zustimmung der Bevölkerungen für die WCG zu erhöhen, wurde über eine Ideologie nachgedacht. Da die Welt aus etwa 200 Staaten besteht, kann es kein simples Set verbindender Ideen, Vorstellungen und Werte geben. Ein Mindestmaß an Komplexität war erforderlich. Feng: "Die WCG bedient sich der natürlichen Vielfalt der Völker, um eine leistungsfähigere Einheit zu schmieden. Regionale Kompetenzen aus Kultur, Wissenschaft, Politik und Wirtschaft werden sowohl geschützt als auch kombiniert, um globale Herausforderungen zu meistern. Es ist gewissermaßen auch eine Aussöhnung von Konkurrenz und Kooperation, Föderalismus und Zentralismus, sowie Individualismus und Kollektivismus auf globaler Ebene." Konkret heißt das, dass alte nationale Ideologien in einer neuen globalen Ideologie integriert werden.

Gewichtung auf nationaler Ebene:
Konservative wurden mit dem "nationalem Erbe" beauftragt. Bewahrung von Kultur, Religion, Sprache, etc. Die nationalen Erben stellen insgesamt einen großen Pool an Inspirationen und Geisteshaltungen dar. Ressourcen. Die Bewahrung von Vielfalt, daher eigenen Identitäten, war auch in einer globalisierten Welt wichtig, um evolutionär förderliche Konkurrenz beizubehalten. Einige Aspekte des Nationalstaats entfielen: Historisch gesehen ging es auch früher hauptsächlich um Effizienzsteigerung. Die Kleinstaaterei wurde beendet, Gesetze vereinheitlicht, die zu vielen Zölle und Währungen abgeschafft, ein großer gemeinsamer Wirtschaftsraum entstand. Da die "Zonen" streng gemanagt wurden und Teil eines übergeordneten Systems waren, könnten einige militärische Kapazität abgebaut werden, ohne die eigene Sicherheit zu gefährden.

Progressiven und liberale Kräften wurde Raum zum experimentieren zugestanden. Föderale Strategien, die sich als effektiver als Bestehende herausstellen, wurden durch den Zentralismus aufgenommen und weiterverteilt. Neue Strategien dürfen wiederum gerne getestet werden, müssen aber um so mehr im Konzept überzeugen. 

Gewichtung auf globaler Ebene:
Soziale und grüne Kräfte dienten der Harmonisierung und dem Ausgleich. [...]

WCG-Politik

Da in der WCG anfangs noch demokratische Abstimmungen durch ihre demokratischen und nicht-demokratischen Mitglieder vorgesehen waren, wurde das System gelegentlich auch Meta-Demokratie genannt. [...]

Die Abstimmungen wurden dem gemeinsamen Wohl (einer funktionierenden und halbwegs fairen Weltwirtschaft) untergeordnet. Die Beseitigung von Problemen gegenüber dem Verfolgen von Interessen genoss Priorität. Da weniger Probleme gleich höhere Effizienz. Die Polykrise sollte überwunden werden, während gleichzeitig wieder der Wohlstand wachsen sollte, um für die Zustimmung der Bevölkerung zu sorgen. Um handlungsfähig zu sein, gab es keine harten Vetos. So ziemlich alles wurde über eine Zweidrittelmehrheit erledigt. [...]

Trotz aller Anstrengungen entwickelte sich die WCG zu einem halb dysfunktionalem und ziemlich autoritärem System. Pensatore und Feng strebten es an die WCG zu reformieren. Biokratischen Aspekte sollen bestehende Schwachstellen reparieren. Insbesondere sollte ein symbiotisches Zusammenleben durch eine wahrhaftige Informations- und Wissenschaftsgesellschaft gestärkt werden.

META: WCG's more corrupt successor

Before a reform could be initiated the "cataclysm" happened. META was the fast stitched together, rudimentary successor of WCG and its "meta-democracy". The rudimentariness is symbolized by just using the one word. The democratic part and the national ideologies broke away. Therefore it goes along the line "Beyond everything" (so, also, "beyond itself"). META prevented a total breakdown of world economy. After that the corrupt system served itself. It's in greater parts a totalitarian kleptocracy.

Klimadiktatur

Das Wort "Klimadiktatur" und "Ökodiktatur" beinhaltet wie auch "Klimawandel" ein dem rechten Spektrum nützliches Nudging. Statt zu verharmlosen, wird diesmal das Wort "Diktatur" genutzt, um Angst zu schüren. Vertreter klimaschonender Politik sollen so diskreditiert werden. Klimaschutz sei nur ein Vorwand, um die Macht an sich zu reißen und den einfachen Bürger zu schikanieren und zu kontrollieren.

Wenn überhaupt handelt es sich hierbei um ein "Diktat des Klimas". Es sind äußere Zwänge, planetare Grenzen, die unsere Freiheiten einschränken werden. In welchen Schweregraden und in welcher Geschwindigkeit wird vermutlich Gegenstand immer heißer werdenden Debatten sein.

So warnte Neubauer bereits 2020 selbst vor dem Verlust von Freiheiten: "Die große Bedrohung für die Freiheit geht in der Klimakrise ganz klar vom Nichthandeln aus. Die Frage lautet also: Wie können wir so viele Freiheiten wie möglich für die Menschen heute und morgen gewährleisten – und zwar durch eine Politik, die wir heute umsetzen?"

China hat mit seinen sehr strengen Lockdowns während der Corona-Pandemie gezeigt, dass Naturkatastrophen für die eigenen Machtfestigung und Diktaturbestrebungen genutzt werden können. Es ist also denkbar, dass besonders autoritäre Staaten, den Klimawandel und die entstehenden Notsituationen als Ausrede nutzen werden, um Opposition und Dissidenten aus dem Weg zu räumen.

Durch die Pandemie driftet auch Europa immer weiter nach rechts. Egal welche Katastrophen noch auftauchen werden, Migration wird fester Bestandteil der Politik bleiben.

  • Der linksgrüne "Block" hat strategische Nachteile: Von den tätsächlichen Kapazitätsgrenzen mal abgesehen, werden einige Gruppen sich genötigt fühlen die Migrationspolitik soweit zu verschärfen, dass möglichst keine Wählerstimmen nach rechts wandern. (Beispiel: Dänemark, 2022.) Es droht Streit und Zersplitterung. Letztendlich wird an der "Festung Europa" von links wie von rechts gebaut werden. Klimaschutzmaßnahmen bleiben unattraktiv. Wirtschaftlich begründeter Wohlstand wird immer wichtiger für die Zustimmung in die Politik. Ein Teufelskreis. Notwendige Investitionen stehen teilweise in Konkurrenz zu andere staatlichen Ausgaben. Der eigentlich hohe Zuspruch für grüne Politik in Zeiten des Klimawandels läuft Gefahr durch das Schüren von Verlustängsten sabotiert zu werden.
  • Rechte Parteien haben einen strategischen Vorteil: durch das Leugnen oder Verharmlosen des Klimawandels können sie so lange ein Blockadehaltung für effektiven Klimaschutz einnehmen bis die Auswirkungen so schwerwiegend werden, dass Mixed Migration ein kritisches Level erreicht und ihnen durch Populismus die absolute Mehrheit sichert.

Auf langer Sicht basteln sie - bewusst oder nicht - an dem, was ihnen angeblich selbst zuwider ist. Ironischerweise wird letztendlich eine radikal grüne Politik auch von den Rechten ausgehen: Ganz einfach um die Kettenreaktion innerhalb der Kipppunkte zu stoppen, um den klimatischen Supergau zu verhindern.

Insbesondere in den USA hat sich eine starke Wissenschaftsfeindlichkeit breit gemacht. Sie ist fester Bestandteil der republikanischen Partei. Nebenbei wird auch noch die Demokratie an sich verächtlich gemacht. Demokratie sei nur ein System der Mehrheit, um die Minderheiten niederzuknüppel. Im Umkehrschluss schützen Republiken die Freiheiten der "Minderheiten".

"Democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51% of the people may take away the rights of the other 49%." - Vermeintliches Zitat von Thomas Jefferson, Urvater der US-Demokraten
Die Volksverhetzung geht soweit, dass Republikaner offen fantasieren, man müsse an den Demokraten per Enthauptung ein Exempel statuieren.

Es zeichnet sich ein Bild der Sündenbock-Politik ab. Bei den ganzen Waffen und dem Rassismus entwickelt sich die USA zu einem nicht kalkulierbaren Risiko.

In ärmeren Staaten des globalen Südens werden vermutlich Klimadiktaturen im Sinne von Militärjunta entstehen, die im besten Fall "nur" damit beschäftigt sind die tatsächlichen Probleme ihrer Nation zu managen: Wassermangel, Überflutungen, Seuchen, Nahrungsmangel, Bürgerkriege, usw.

In den extremsten Klimapfaden bzw. ihren emergenten Äquivalenten ist es also wahrscheinlich, dass sich global viele rechtspopulistischen und ultranationalistischen "Klimadiktaturen" entwickeln werden. Bei weiterer Verschärfung der Lebensumstände würden einige Systeme abermals kippen und linksgrüne Klimadiktaturen hervorbringen, weil es allen Anschein nicht mehr anders geht.

Alles hanebüchen? Selbst bei der NATO wächst langsam das Bewusstsein, dass der Klimawandel zu einem schweren Sicherheitsproblem wird.

"Die Zielsetzung des Pariser Abkommens, die weltweite Erwärmung deutlich unter zwei Grad Celsius, besser unter 1,5 Grad zu halten, scheint kaum mehr erreichbar. Klimaforscher halten heute langfristig eine globale Erwärmung von etwa drei Grad für realistischer. Zusätzliche Risiken wie mögliche Kipppunkte, die ganze Ökosysteme kollabieren lassen könnten, sind bei den Bewertungen noch gar nicht berücksichtigt."
Bundesministerium der Verteidigung, 2021.06.18, NATO verabschiedet Aktionsplan zum Klimawandel
Details, die die NATO bekannt gab:
3.1 The Security Environment: The Return of Systemic Rivalry and Rise of Global Threats
[...] Transnational threats and risks continue to pose a major challenge to the Alliance, from terrorism to the security challenges posed by pandemics, climate change, and migratory flows. [...] Climate change is becoming a threat multiplier. It is likely to accelerate resource scarcity and global food and water insecurity. As ocean levels rise, and the world’s habitable landmass is reduced, migration flows could accelerate towards NATO territory. New theatres of competition will emerge as icecaps melt and new transport corridors open, such as the Northern Sea Route in the High North, which geopolitical rivals are seeking to control and exploit. [...]
4.2 [...] Climate and Green Defence
[...] NATO should monitor and assess the impact of climate change on security in the coming decade and increase its situational awareness of threats that could emanate from consequent heightened activity and increased freedom of navigation. In support of this goal, NATO should increase situational awareness, early warning and information sharing on climate and security, including by Allies considering the establishment of a NATO Centre of Excellence on Climate and Security or adding climate to the NATO Centre of Excellence on Energy Security. [...]

5-Grad-Plus-Erde

Jor, man kann natürlich argumentieren, dass RCP8.5 und RCP6.0 unrealistisch sind. Oder man macht sich Gedanken zu was unterschätzte Selbstverstärkung, RCP4.5 und die Kipppunkte führen (können). Höhere RCP-Äquivalente? Ich persönlich glaube ja auch nicht, dass die gesamte Menschheit ausstirbt. Irgendein Rest moderne Zivilisation wird schon noch übrig bleiben. Aber man muss es ja nicht drauf anlegen, das Restrisiko Realität werden zu lassen. Oder?

Warum so pessimistisch? Die Prognosen werden immer wieder nach oben verschoben. Hier eine Region, da eine Region, und schließlich doch global. Das heißt, dass da noch etwas ist von dem wir nichts wissen und gegen uns arbeitet und/oder der sich selbst verstärkende Temperaturanstieg noch immer unterschätzt wird. Die große Gefahr ist, dass die Kipppunkte wie Dominosteine einer nach dem anderem umkippen. Einige Kipppunkte liegen in polnahen Regionen, die sich sowieso besonders schnell erwärmen.

Womöglich ist die Zeit schon abgelaufen, weil dieser träge Tanker gar nicht mehr rechtzeitig bremsen kann. Zeit sich auf das Schlimmste vorzubereiten.

https://earth.org/data_visualization/a-brief-history-of-co2/

Co2-levels-historic.jpg

Temperature-Historical.png

  • Für CO2 sind wir bereits über 400 ppm. Als ob das noch nicht schlimm genug wäre, fehlt heute die globale Verdunkelung (global dimming) durch Vulkanausbrüche.
  • Der Ausstoß der Treibhausgase steigt immer weiter. Die Erwärmung beschleunigt sich. Rückkopplungseffekte verstärken die Entwicklung. Kipppunkte werden überschritten.
    • Je wärmer es wird desto mehr Wasserdampf gelangt in die Atmosphäre und blockiert die Wärmeabgabe in den Weltraum.
    • Beim Betrachten der Messwerte 10.000 vor Christus fällt sehr irritierend auf, dass die CO2-Konzentration anscheinend der Temperatur nachläuft, also, als ob, Ursache und Wirkung vertauscht sind. Die Erklärung ist, dass die erwärmten Meere wiederum CO2 abgeben. Das kommt also verzögert noch mal on top.
    • Je mehr reflektierendes Eis schmilzt desto mehr Sonnenlicht kann durch freigelegtes Land und dunklere Wasserflächen absorbiert werden.
    • Der Permafrost in Sibirien, Kanada, Alaska, Arktis und generell in den Bergen löst sich auf. Das lässt sich gar nicht mehr verhindern. So gelangt kurzfristig das noch viel stärkere Treibhausgas Methan in die Atmosphäre, das unsere Klimaschutzbemühungen sabotiert. Sollte die Wassertemperatur um 4° ansteigen, schmilzt auch noch das Methanhydrat auf dem Meeresboden und die Kettenreaktion setzt sich fort.
    • Der Planet wird gerade so warm, dass Wälder mehr CO2 abgeben als zu speichern. Der besonders betroffene Regenwald droht komplett zu kippen, da dort noch immer Brandrodung stattfindet. Auch die "natürlichen" Waldbrände werden immer häufiger.
  • An das Thema (weiter wachsende) Überbevölkerung traut man sich immer noch nicht so recht ran. Das stabilisiere sich ja sowieso um 2080. Und was passiert in bis dahin in den nächsten 60 Jahren? Auch heißt es immer wieder beschwichtigend, dass die wachsenden Bevölkerungen gegenüber den Industrienationen das kleinere Übel ist, weil wir ja diejenigen sind, die die meisten Emissionen verursachen. Da stimmt zwar, wird aber nicht so bleiben. Die Menschen in den Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer - wer könnte es ihnen verübeln - wollen auch eine moderne Industrie und einen höheren Lebensstandard. Und wenn die Dinge nicht zu den Menschen kommen, machen sich die Menschen auf den Weg. Mixed Migration: Kriegsflüchtlinge, Klimaflüchtlinge und Wirtschaftsflüchtlinge. "Ihr dürft euch nicht industrialisieren und ihr dürft aber auch nicht zu uns." Das wird nicht funktionieren. -- Wenn also schon nicht das Bevölkerungswachstum früher gebremst werden kann, muss man zumindest bei der Industrialisierung mit grüner Technologie helfen. Kooperationen (Technologietransfers, "Hilfe zur Selbsthilfe" und angestrebte Partnerschaften) klingen erst einmal logisch, werden es uns aber nicht ersparen selbst auch autarker zu werden. Das Risiko für störende Konflikte ist einfach zu groß. Zukünftige islamistische Terrorgruppen - womöglich mit Unterstützung Russlands, um die BRICS-Einflusssphäre sichern zu helfen - könnten die EU-Pläne für Wasserstoffpartnerschaften in Nord-, West- und Ost-Afrika über den Haufen werfen: "Klimakriege" könnten die neu geschaffenen Energie-Abhängigkeiten mal wieder in Europa spürbar werden lassen. -- Falls diese Geopolitik-Kindergarten-Scheiße nicht endlich aufhört und halb Afrika in Chaos versinkt, wird die EU über 100-prozentige eigene Autarkie nachdenken müssen. Das ist technisch machbar, kostet aber auch mehr und wirft uns alle in der Bekämpfung des Klimawandels zurück. - Todo: Beende und verlinke Autarkie-Abschnitt. - Der Westen und der Osten dürfen nicht Afrika zur Kampfzone machen.
  • Kriege und politische Fehlentscheidungen sorgen dafür, dass Geld nicht für die Bekämpfung des Klimawandels ausgegeben wird. Dem kommt konkurrierend hinzu, dass neben den Ursachen auch immer mehr Geld zur Bekämpfung der Symptome des Klimawandels ausgegeben werden wird: Wassermangel, Überflutungen, Nahrungsmittelmangel, Landverlust, Artenverlust, Sturmschäden, Ausbreitung von mehr Krankheiten, Hitzetote, Mixed Migration. Der allgemeine Wohlstandsverlust droht Gesellschaften zu radikalisieren und diese in nicht helfende Nationalismen zurückfallen zu lassen. -- Jedes weitere Zögern rächt sich im Notwendigwerden zusätzlicher Maßnahmen. Es ist zu spät? Ja, vielleicht, aber Nichtstun macht es nur noch schlimmer und noch teurer.

Um den Planeten wieder abzukühlen, müsste man ihn buchstäblich wieder begrünen.

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