Restless Souls/Technology: Difference between revisions

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the race for quantum computers isn't hot any longer, it's on fire - first blueprints published
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m (the race for quantum computers isn't hot any longer, it's on fire - first blueprints published)
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Harnessing the magnetic property of electrons will not only result in less power consumption but also high clock rates. In the past years the clock speed stagnated between 4 and 5 GHz due to overheating. Processors based on spintronics won't heat up that fast, so they can operate at higher frequencies. And higher frequencies means more calculations per second.
Harnessing the magnetic property of electrons will not only result in less power consumption but also high clock rates. In the past years the clock speed stagnated between 4 and 5 GHz due to overheating. Processors based on spintronics won't heat up that fast, so they can operate at higher frequencies. And higher frequencies means more calculations per second.


Next, we will see photonic processors. If we give spintronics 15 years to become fully developed, photonics should arrive at 2040. These appear quite late in this technological vision since individual light particles (photons) are even more difficult to handle than electrons.
Oh yeah, and of course quantum computers... You often hear of "breakthroughs" but still practical examples are nowhere to be found. That's because there is quite a number of different approaches towards QC and the ToDo-lists are huge. Most parts have to be constructed from scratch and the underlying logic rests on fragile particle states such as entanglement. While powerful quantum computer might just gain traction by 2050, we should see more and more hybridization of processor technologies in the meantime.


Oh yeah, and of course quantum computers... You often hear of "breakthroughs" but still practical examples are nowhere to be found. That's because the ToDo-lists for all its parts are huge. Most parts have to be constructed from scratch and the underlying logic rests on fragile particle states like entanglement. While quantum computer might just gain traction by 2050, we should see more and more hybridization of processor technologies in the meantime.
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2017.02.02 Update: The first blueprint for a significant large QC has been published. The [https://phys.org/news/2017-02-blueprint-unveiled-large-scale-quantum.html article on phys.org] had 5000 shares after one day, a number that is rarely reached.


As you already guessed these numbers (2025, 2040, 2050) are just rough estimates. All I can do here is explaining my estimates in some more detail.
The foundation of this kind of QC are trapped ions. They require bulky vacuum chambers. That's not very elegant but due to economics' tendency to create cash cows the development of better approaches will be delayed. It can only be hoped that the ion QC will provide enough computing power to accelerate further research and therefor compensate the economic influence.
 
Eventually NV-centers should take over when the ion traps cannot be shrinked any further thus giving birth to real "large scale" QC.
 
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As you already guessed these numbers (2025, 2050) are just rough estimates. All I can do here is explaining my estimates in some more detail.


Let's make also an approach via economy. A company will only invest a serious amount of money into a new R&D field if it doesn't have another option. If they try it anyway, there's a high risk to fail. Latest example is HP's the machine, a still-hypothetical computer driven by memristors. The technological gap is still too wide.
Let's make also an approach via economy. A company will only invest a serious amount of money into a new R&D field if it doesn't have another option. If they try it anyway, there's a high risk to fail. Latest example is HP's the machine, a still-hypothetical computer driven by memristors. The technological gap is still too wide.
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neurosynaptic chips
neurosynaptic chips


memristors
memristors <!-- chemo vs. spin  -->


artifial neurons
artifial neurons
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