Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

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 ====Russia====
-Russia assured multiple times that it will not attack Ukraine. If Russia attacks the Ukraine nonetheless - in whatever form, no matter whether a false flag action happens before or not - they will lose all credibility for a long time and NATO will be forced to impose sanctions. Germany will be forced to stop NS2 and give up its pacifistic basic attitude. If the attack is big enough it would even trigger a new cold war.
+. Russia assured multiple times that it will not attack Ukraine. If Russia attacks the Ukraine nonetheless - in whatever form, no matter whether a false flag action happens before or not - they will lose all credibility for a long time and NATO will be forced to impose sanctions. Germany will be forced to stop NS2 and give up its pacifistic basic attitude. If the attack is big enough it would even trigger a new cold war.
-Based on pure logic a war is improbable. (Also, Bundeswehr sees not much of a risk. The Ukraine don't want the escalation to be made real by US talk. And Snowden rised [https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016?cxt=HHwWgMC55bfOvbopAAAA questions], too.) -- A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions. -- Third option: '''If Russia is not given any guarantees''' (geopolitical "cake slice") they might acknowledge separatists areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) as independent - and annex them in a more far future. (A victory distributed in smaller steps.) The military maneuver right now is like holding a gun to the head of Ukraine to ensure step one. "Do you want to say no? What are you gonna do. Come on, it could be far worse." '''It could be a game about building up a massive wall of threats and very [https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-und-russland-neues-szenario-fuer-den-donbass-ld.1666400 high demands] and then let the enemy (NATO) agree to seemingly small points.''' It would be a [https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/ostukraine-konflikt-russland-separatisten-paesse-anerkennung-waffenruhe continuation] of a dynamic that started [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/separatistengebiete-in-ukraine-putin-deutet-anerkennung-an-a-1029376.html long ago]. -- Putin's calculation could be that mediocre sanctions come and go but soil is kept "forever".
+Scenarios:
+* Based on pure logic a full-fledged war across the entire Ukraine is improbable. (Also, Bundeswehr sees not much of a risk. The Ukraine don't want the escalation to be made real by US talk. And Snowden rised [https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016?cxt=HHwWgMC55bfOvbopAAAA questions], too.) Usually, an attack is carried out as fast as possible so the enemy has no time to prepare his defense.
+:: The communication by western administrations (and media) - especially of USA - has been criticized as warmongering. Apparently, the current strategy is to speak about about war as much as possible (to unite own allies behind the banner of NATO) and make Russia not want to prove the West right.
+* A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions.
+* '''If Russia is not given any guarantees''' (geopolitical "cake slice") they might acknowledge separatists areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) as independent - and annex them in a more far future. (A victory distributed in smaller steps.) The military maneuver right now is like holding a gun to the head of Ukraine to ensure step one. "Do you want to say no? What are you gonna do. Come on, it could be far worse." '''It could be a game about building up a massive wall of threats and very [https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-und-russland-neues-szenario-fuer-den-donbass-ld.1666400 high demands] and then let the enemy (NATO) agree to seemingly small points.''' It would be a [https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/ostukraine-konflikt-russland-separatisten-paesse-anerkennung-waffenruhe continuation] of a dynamic that started [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/separatistengebiete-in-ukraine-putin-deutet-anerkennung-an-a-1029376.html long ago]. -- Putin's calculation could be that mediocre sanctions come and go but soil is kept "forever".
+** A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia waits for the conflict between separatists and Ukraine military to heat up. Western partners tell Ukraine not get provoked. Heavy counter attacks would give Russia the '''pretext to "secure" the conflict zone'''. This Scenario is the most probable as goes hand in hand the Russian domestic propaganda. -- Some people speculate that Putin overplayed his hand (geopolitical demands) so that he needs something else as a victory and exit.
 ====China====