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* A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions. | * A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions. | ||
* '''If Russia is not given any guarantees''' (geopolitical "cake slice") they might acknowledge separatists areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) as independent - and annex them in a more far future. (A victory distributed in smaller steps.) The military maneuver right now is like holding a gun to the head of Ukraine to ensure step one. "Do you want to say no? What are you gonna do. Come on, it could be far worse." '''It could be a game about building up a massive wall of threats and very [https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-und-russland-neues-szenario-fuer-den-donbass-ld.1666400 high demands] and then let the enemy (NATO) agree to seemingly small points.''' It would be a [https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/ostukraine-konflikt-russland-separatisten-paesse-anerkennung-waffenruhe continuation] of a dynamic that started [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/separatistengebiete-in-ukraine-putin-deutet-anerkennung-an-a-1029376.html long ago]. -- Putin's calculation could be that mediocre sanctions come and go but soil is kept "forever". | * '''If Russia is not given any guarantees''' (geopolitical "cake slice") they might acknowledge separatists areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) as independent - and annex them in a more far future. (A victory distributed in smaller steps.) The military maneuver right now is like holding a gun to the head of Ukraine to ensure step one. "Do you want to say no? What are you gonna do. Come on, it could be far worse." '''It could be a game about building up a massive wall of threats and very [https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-und-russland-neues-szenario-fuer-den-donbass-ld.1666400 high demands] and then let the enemy (NATO) agree to seemingly small points.''' It would be a [https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/ostukraine-konflikt-russland-separatisten-paesse-anerkennung-waffenruhe continuation] of a dynamic that started [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/separatistengebiete-in-ukraine-putin-deutet-anerkennung-an-a-1029376.html long ago]. -- Putin's calculation could be that mediocre sanctions come and go but soil is kept "forever". | ||
** A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia waits for the conflict between separatists and | ** A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia more or less waits for the conflict between separatists and Ukrainian military to heat up. Western partners tell Ukraine not get provoked. Russia spoke bluntly of military technical responses if no concessions are made. Heavy counter attacks would give Russia the '''pretext to "secure" the conflict zone'''. This Scenario is the most probable as goes hand in hand the Russian domestic propaganda. -- Some people speculate that Putin overplayed his hand (geopolitical demands) so that he needs something else as a "victory" and exit. In reality it would be a pyrrhic victory but that is something more domestic propaganda would cover. | ||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||