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::: In that case we need to '''prepare against unprecedented retaliations''' from Russia: massive waves the disinformation, '''cyberattacks''' and and perhaps total blockage of fossile energie. | ::: In that case we need to '''prepare against unprecedented retaliations''' from Russia: massive waves the disinformation, '''cyberattacks''' and and perhaps total blockage of fossile energie. | ||
:::: Would Russia really cut us off from gas and coal if it is an important source of money for them. If they are cut off from SWIFT it's hard to pay them anyway - and if we do further political questions would surface.) | :::: Would Russia really cut us off from gas and coal if it is an important source of money for them. If they are cut off from SWIFT it's hard to pay them anyway - and if we do further political questions would surface.) | ||
:: A far-future normalization probably will have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctionated government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that " | :: A far-future normalization probably will have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctionated government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | ||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||