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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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:::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | :::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | ||
:::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | :::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | ||
:::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage control''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and Balkan becoming soon attack targets are unrealistic. | :::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage control''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and NATO embedded Western Balkan states becoming soon attack targets are therefore unrealistic. This leaves Moldova and the Caucasus states like Georgia as plausible attack options. | ||
::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ||
:: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | :: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | ||