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* '''The optimistic one''' | * '''The optimistic one''' | ||
A miracle happens and Ukraine gets enough weapons to | A miracle happens and Ukraine gets enough weapons to restore all its territory. The Donbas is Putin's minimal goal, so that still won't be easy. | ||
The West actually has to deliver or he gets incredible. Taiwan would go down even faster if not done. | |||
The argument that further weapons delivers are not possible is not valid. That would be a pure political decision. Concerns about own alliance duty is a red herring. The more weapons are transferred to Ukraine the more weapons Russia need to win the war and the less a threat it is elsewhere. Any war game - even common sense - tells you that sending droplets of reinforcement into the enemy's superior forces is a waste of own resources. It's very simple: If Ukraine is meant to win the war military-wise as soon as possible it needs to be the superior hitter. | |||
* '''The realistic one''' | * '''The realistic one''' | ||
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Phase II (option) | Phase II (option) | ||
Africa should have been enabled to feed itself. Now it's too late. The situation of a starving overpopulation will take its toll. "Autarky is not a solution", my ass. If China and Russia come up with a true partnership in geopolitics Europe gets fucked. The refugee waves can be channeled to | Africa should have been enabled to feed itself. Now it's too late. The situation of a starving overpopulation will take its toll. "Autarky is not a solution", my ass. If China and Russia come up with a true partnership in geopolitics Europe gets fucked. The refugee waves can be channeled to Europe functioning as "human weapons" - like during the Belarus border crisis but much more powerful because, unlike the Ukrainians, black people won't be welcomed by Europe. To maximize damage, waves from the overpopulated Afghanistan could be triggered simultaneously. And then the tone will be "thank you America for pushing Russia and China into kicking out asses while you sit on your far-away island. Thank you for nothing. May you become an idiocracy under Donald Trump and never talk to us again." | ||
It's said that naturally most refugees stay in their country and hence this is just a "horror scenario". The difference is that this wouldn't be a "natural" dynamic. The question is whether Russia can effort the resources to prepare for an "African front", all the more as they are now under the eyes of an alerted NATO. | It's said that naturally most refugees stay in their country and hence this is just a "horror scenario". The difference is that this wouldn't be a "natural" dynamic. The question is whether Russia can effort the resources to prepare for an "African front", all the more as they are now under the eyes of an alerted NATO. | ||
If Ukraine completely falls then China and Russia will dominate Africa first and then more and more parts of the remaining world. As soon as | If Ukraine completely falls then China and Russia will dominate Africa first and then more and more parts of the remaining world. As soon as that happens Europe would need to truly unite and aim for technology-driven Autarky so it doesn't become a satellite. | ||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||
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** When Putin honors the war crimes in Bucha as "heroism" and "courage" we may see it as a cynical, barbarian doing but in a rationalized view it is logical: He believes he depend on the terror acts and cannot tell his troops that they did wrong and decrease their moral even further. Russian soldiers are dying for him after all. | ** When Putin honors the war crimes in Bucha as "heroism" and "courage" we may see it as a cynical, barbarian doing but in a rationalized view it is logical: He believes he depend on the terror acts and cannot tell his troops that they did wrong and decrease their moral even further. Russian soldiers are dying for him after all. | ||
* The aggressor would be faced pretty early on with the crime of attempted genocide. A international like-minded community of states couldn't ignore that as the continued war tells them that they are next to be attacked. For damage containment they would to participate in the war - in one way or another - and make sure the aggressor does not win. | * The aggressor would be faced pretty early on with the crime of attempted genocide. A international like-minded community of states couldn't ignore that as the continued war tells them that they are next to be attacked. For damage containment they would to participate in the war - in one way or another - and make sure the aggressor does not win. | ||
===Thought experiment: How to disable nuclear deterrence - the radical way=== | |||
Deescalation by escalation 2.0 | |||
Nukes are answered with nukes. Therefore no nuclear party can use nukes against each other. The nuclear options cancel out each other. It's "just" one big scare game. | |||
"What about the escalation spiral?" What about it? '''You just have to lower the trigger point.''' The agreement has to be: as soon as any nuclear weapon is fired it has to be answered by the start of the entire other nuclear arsenal. Zero tolerance. Collective suicide. There would be no escalation because the smallest step of escalation would be already too much. | |||
This radical version of nuclear deterrence renders itself useless. Because there is no space for exceptions - or errors. | |||
Therefore all humans of planet Earth would be forced to unite in a policy to destroy all nuclear weapons. These weapons mean only one thing: self-destruction. There is absolute no point in keeping them. The remaining conventional armies would be tasked to disarm any deviant who does not agree. Any attempt in constructing new nuclear weapons would be answer by a global community with obliteration of the deviant. | |||
"If someone had secretly created new nukes wouldn't the others be scared off in attacking him?" That someone would be very unlikely to create enough warheads in time but yes that would be a weak point. A far-future solution to this could be a neutral AI with independent infrastructure. It would not fear termination and could enforce the global policy. To use Voltaire's words in this different context: ''If god did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.'' | |||
"Wouldn't that create the problem of an AI overlord?" It's only a problem when you define it as such. -- It all boils down to "fear vs. hope". You can create an endless list of dilemmas. The only solution is to make a step of faith. | |||
===German political parties in a nutshell=== | ===German political parties in a nutshell=== | ||