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Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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===Global threats=== | ===Global threats=== | ||
====Feng's scenarios==== | ====Feng's scenarios==== | ||
'''Great filters''' | |||
* In addition to a multi-pandemic, single pandemics are itself a threat and a possible kickstarter for hypercrisis. | * In addition to a multi-pandemic, single pandemics are itself a threat and a possible kickstarter for hypercrisis. | ||
::[https://www.spektrum.de/news/vogelgrippe-das-naechste-pandemievirus-ist-vielleicht-schon-da/1875904 New viruses are everywhere available] in nature and can be made lethal in biolabs. As for known killer viruses like smallpox, its reconstruction would take less then <!--microbiologist David Evans, Edmonton, 2016-->[[wp:de:Pocken#Pockengefahr_nach_der_Ausrottung|100.000 credits and half a year of work for a small team]]. | ::[https://www.spektrum.de/news/vogelgrippe-das-naechste-pandemievirus-ist-vielleicht-schon-da/1875904 New viruses are everywhere available] in nature and can be made lethal in biolabs. As for known killer viruses like smallpox, its reconstruction would take less then <!--microbiologist David Evans, Edmonton, 2016-->[[wp:de:Pocken#Pockengefahr_nach_der_Ausrottung|100.000 credits and half a year of work for a small team]]. | ||
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* While a [[wp:Kessler_syndrome|Kessler syndrome]] itself is a serious threat, intentionally triggered it would slow down detection of killer asteroids and the launch of countermeasures. | * While a [[wp:Kessler_syndrome|Kessler syndrome]] itself is a serious threat, intentionally triggered it would slow down detection of killer asteroids and the launch of countermeasures. | ||
* Isotopes filtration technology (e.g. metal-organic frameworks and nanopores) could make it easy to produce [[wp:Enriched_uranium|enriched uranium]] for dirty bombs, [[wp:Operation_Argus|EMP]] or nuclear weapons - too easy for certain states, groups or eventually one day for individuals. | * Isotopes filtration technology (e.g. metal-organic frameworks and nanopores) could make it easy to produce [[wp:Enriched_uranium|enriched uranium]] for dirty bombs, [[wp:Operation_Argus|EMP]] or nuclear weapons - too easy for certain states, groups or eventually one day for individuals. | ||
* Gammaray bursts | |||
'''Moderate filters''' | |||
* Cyber-crimes and cyber-terrorism are itself more of a smaller problem. But if used by organized crime or states in combination with other means it can become a serious threat. With self-improving AI this would get even worse although only a very [[wp:Technological singularity#Hard or soft takeoff|soft takeoff]] is likely to happen. | * Cyber-crimes and cyber-terrorism are itself more of a smaller problem. But if used by organized crime or states in combination with other means it can become a serious threat. With self-improving AI this would get even worse although only a very [[wp:Technological singularity#Hard or soft takeoff|soft takeoff]] is likely to happen. | ||
** [https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-warns-cyber-attacks-could-lead-a-real-shooting-war-2021-07-27/ Nuclear retaliation has been named as a reaction to a large-scale cyber attack.] The final consequence would be a nuclear holocaust. It can speculated that such warning was meant as a leverage to sway the minds of hardliners in one's own government and let them agree on the necessity for disarmament. Since no party can use nuclear weapons, they are good for nothing. Actually it is even worse. Besides being a symbol for our failure in expressing sanity, compassion and any humanistic value nuclear weapons and their maintaining is simply burning money. -- The idea of a WCG avoids international cyberwars as well as the rest risk of nuclear holocaust and the weapons to trigger such. -- Feng proposes that all weapon-ready uranium and plutonium is gathered and repurposed for anti-asteroid devices and power sources for space probes. | ** [https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-warns-cyber-attacks-could-lead-a-real-shooting-war-2021-07-27/ Nuclear retaliation has been named as a reaction to a large-scale cyber attack.] The final consequence would be a nuclear holocaust. It can speculated that such warning was meant as a leverage to sway the minds of hardliners in one's own government and let them agree on the necessity for disarmament. Since no party can use nuclear weapons, they are good for nothing. Actually it is even worse. Besides being a symbol for our failure in expressing sanity, compassion and any humanistic value nuclear weapons and their maintaining is simply burning money. -- The idea of a WCG avoids international cyberwars as well as the rest risk of nuclear holocaust and the weapons to trigger such. -- Feng proposes that all weapon-ready uranium and plutonium is gathered and repurposed for anti-asteroid devices and power sources for space probes. | ||
* Robots and androids could be a target for hackers and | * Robots and drones: mass production for a loyal army (Geopolitics and AI equals a recipe for disaster.) | ||
* Amok-running AIs are mostly fiction but a | * Robots and androids could be a target for hackers and turned against their "hosts". (SLDs fall out of this category because their programming is more "hard-wired".) | ||
* Amok-running AIs are mostly fiction, but a residual risk remains. | |||
* Super-volcanos | |||
* [[wp:Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere|Geomagnetic reversals]] could damage electronics in satellites and anything at the surface and cause health problems for flora and fauna. It could also cause volcanism. Due to globalization the accumulated effects would put massive stress on markets and societies. | |||
'''Small filters''' | |||
* Self-consuming capitalism: AI and robots let many people lose their job due to effects of competition and rationalization. Therefore these technologies are restricted until the political discussion has been ended. An unlimited use could eventually destabilize all WCG markets and hence the whole political and social system. (Could be avoided by taxes on digital businesses and robots.) | * Self-consuming capitalism: AI and robots let many people lose their job due to effects of competition and rationalization. Therefore these technologies are restricted until the political discussion has been ended. An unlimited use could eventually destabilize all WCG markets and hence the whole political and social system. (Could be avoided by taxes on digital businesses and robots.) | ||
* 3D-printing technologies | * 3D-printing technologies | ||
** Production of common goods | ** Production of common goods | ||