Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

====Feng's scenarios====

* In addition to a multi-pandemic, single pandemics are itself a threat and a possible kickstarter for hypercrisis.

::[https://www.spektrum.de/news/vogelgrippe-das-naechste-pandemievirus-ist-vielleicht-schon-da/1875904 New viruses are everywhere available] in nature and can be made lethal in biolabs. As for known killer viruses like smallpox, its reconstruction would take less then <!--microbiologist David Evans, Edmonton, 2016-->[[wp:de:Pocken#Pockengefahr_nach_der_Ausrottung|100.000 credits and half a year of work for a small team]].

* Pandemics can also be triggered in insects. Extinction of bees have been discussed in other contexts. And while such an event would not drive humans into extinction it would still mean a severe problem. Also insects could be used as biological weapon. They could destroy specific flora: [https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/insect-allies DARPA]'s [https://web.archive.org/web/20210912140741/https://www.science.org/news/2018/10/crop-protecting-insects-could-be-turned-bioweapons-critics-warn Insect Allies] was identified as such a threat as it could be re-purposed.

* An asteroid impact could drive humans into extinction. The bigger the asteroid the more difficult it gets to prevent such an event. Therefore global teamwork is needed.  

* While a [[wp:Kessler_syndrome|Kessler syndrome]] itself is a serious threat, intentionally triggered it would slow down detection of killer asteroids and the launch of countermeasures.

* Isotopes filtration technology (e.g. metal-organic frameworks and nanopores) could make it easy to produce [[wp:Enriched_uranium|enriched uranium]] for dirty bombs, [[wp:Operation_Argus|EMP]] or nuclear weapons - too easy for certain states, groups or eventually one day for individuals.

* Gammaray bursts

'''Moderate filters'''

* Cyber-crimes and cyber-terrorism are itself more of a smaller problem. But if used by organized crime or states in combination with other means it can become a serious threat. With self-improving AI this would get even worse although only a very [[wp:Technological singularity#Hard or soft takeoff|soft takeoff]] is likely to happen.

** [https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-warns-cyber-attacks-could-lead-a-real-shooting-war-2021-07-27/ Nuclear retaliation has been named as a reaction to a large-scale cyber attack.] The final consequence would be a nuclear holocaust. It can speculated that such warning was meant as a leverage to sway the minds of hardliners in one's own government and let them agree on the necessity for disarmament. Since no party can use nuclear weapons, they are good for nothing. Actually it is even worse. Besides being a symbol for our failure in expressing sanity, compassion and any humanistic value nuclear weapons and their maintaining is simply burning money. -- The idea of a WCG avoids international cyberwars as well as the rest risk of nuclear holocaust and the weapons to trigger such. -- Feng proposes that all weapon-ready uranium and plutonium is gathered and repurposed for anti-asteroid devices and power sources for space probes.

* Robots and androids could be a target for hackers and turned against their "hosts". (SLDs fall out of this category because their programming is more "hard-wired".)

* Super-volcanos

* [[wp:Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere|Geomagnetic reversals]] could damage electronics in satellites and anything at the surface and cause health problems for flora and fauna. It could also cause volcanism. Due to globalization the accumulated effects would put massive stress on markets and societies.  

* Self-consuming capitalism: AI and robots let many people lose their job due to effects of competition and rationalization. Therefore these technologies are restricted until the political discussion has been ended. An unlimited use could eventually destabilize all WCG markets and hence the whole political and social system. (Could be avoided by taxes on digital businesses and robots.)

::'''3D printers increasingly create a field of tension of security concerns and a sustainable economy.'''

::Lobbies could use pretextual arguments to ban 3D printing in public (not including companies of course). However, a matured technology enables cheap products and spare parts since it reduces packaging, transport and storage costs. Also the goods are produced "on demand". This reduces overproduction (less raw materials, less energy) and recycling of unsold goods.

::The problem is not the technology but the mentality, the people who want to own weapons. That reminds to the discussion about the NRA in the USA. Theoretically it is correct that weapon itself are no problem but the people using them. However in real life the availability of weapons increase violence and a social climate of fear. You can even see it at the US police officers. Potential racist tendencies alone could never explain this. There is a reason why those officers always hold their gun ready: on top of the general frustration that leads to police violence, there is the specific fear of getting shot on duty.

:: The murder rate (per 100.000 per year) in USA is 5. Germany has 0.7. USA has vast areas with low population numbers therefore a second look at cities is helpful. [[wp:List of cities by homicide rate|Detroit has a murder rate of 40]] while [[wp:de:Tötungsrate_nach_Ländern#Liste_der_Tötungsraten_2013_für_ausgewählte_Großstädte|Berlin has 1]].

::The obvious interpretation is that availability of weapons creates crimes out of an existing potential of violence. Therefore it should be task of politics to ensure social freedom by improving financial security (“minimum wage”), health insurance, integration of migrants, refugees and ex-inmates, and strongly promote education, so that the mentality of insecurity and hence the desire to own weapons – and therefore the potential misuse of 3D printers – is greatly reduced. Besides the rebuild of classical firearms (ghost guns) there will be also the creation of [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwHRjgVWFno coil guns] which are quite silent and don't need chemical gun propellants. Some polices downplay the emerging threat as they don't want to wake up sleeping dogs. Given incremental progress in 3D printing, AI-assisted design, capacitors and batteries, the techs will have matured so much around 2040 that the problem can't be ignored any longer.

:** True reason why biological immortality is not intended: it is simply difficult to maintain because very cost-intensive.

:** Conspiracy theory, [[Manual#Tech_Note_1|Hanna]]: The World Coalition Government realizes the extent of the ecological damage and has the ability to reverse a lot of it but has decided not to. It is in their best interest to maintain the centralization of wealth so the large population centers are preserved while "third world" regions are not. As a bonus the mounting death toll solves some of their overpopulation problems. (In that context Hanna also believes the WCG is doing less than it could to improve public healthcare.)