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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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::: USA had many shady military and secret intelligence missions (CIA) in foreign nations. This includes installation of new government in rogue nations. Consequently these are made pro-USA. And as side effect USA often profits economically in an intesified way. | ::: USA had many shady military and secret intelligence missions (CIA) in foreign nations. This includes installation of new government in rogue nations. Consequently these are made pro-USA. And as side effect USA often profits economically in an intesified way. | ||
:::: '''Among critics you can often hear the "blood for oil" thesis or "No blood for oil" sloagan, saying in quintessence that USA is using its military to protect its advantage in buying, producing or mining the resources. However, nations with less potential power or by simply being smaller are always in disadvantage and are in danger of getting exploited by economic dynamics.''' (Pretty everyone tries or tried to exploit African nations.) On the other hand there is the military-industrial-complex and ideological factors that add their bits and pieces to foreign policy - may it be the readiness to use military and the "sense of mission" (own belief in being forced) to bring democracy to nations with a different cultural environment. | :::: '''Among critics you can often hear the "blood for oil" thesis or "No blood for oil" sloagan, saying in quintessence that USA is using its military to protect its advantage in buying, producing or mining the resources. However, nations with less potential power or by simply being smaller are always in disadvantage and are in danger of getting exploited by economic dynamics.''' (Pretty everyone tries or tried to exploit African nations.) On the other hand there is the military-industrial-complex and ideological factors that add their bits and pieces to foreign policy - may it be the readiness to use military and the "sense of mission" (own belief in being forced) to bring democracy to nations with a different cultural environment. | ||
::: Sometimes these missions (for new governments / nation building) end up in unwillingly facilitating new radical forces - like the Taliban or the Islamic State. This makes its sometimes hard to believe that USA speaks the truth. '''The "collateral damage" - including the eavesdrop of global communication - is so massive that whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange (WikiLeaks) can reveal that many tons of mistakes and wrongdoing that they were declared public enemies. USA created an empire not simply by - but yet partially by - questionable methods and accepted high amounts of killed civilians and violated human rights at [[wp:CIA_black_sites|CIA black sides]] like Guantanamo which not even Nobel peace laureate Barack Obama was willing to close.''' If the | ::: Sometimes these missions (for new governments / nation building) end up in unwillingly facilitating new radical forces - like the Taliban or the Islamic State. This makes its sometimes hard to believe that USA speaks the truth. '''The "collateral damage" - including the eavesdrop of global communication - is so massive that whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange (WikiLeaks) can reveal that many tons of mistakes and wrongdoing that they were declared public enemies. USA created an empire not simply by - but yet partially by - questionable methods and accepted high amounts of killed civilians and violated human rights at [[wp:CIA_black_sites|CIA black sides]] like [[wp:Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp|Guantanamo]] which not even Nobel peace laureate Barack Obama was willing to close.''' If the inmates were not radicalized at the beginning they were after years of humiliation and torture. Their release poses a new threat to USA so the shutdown of Guantanamo is considered possible only in small steps. Putin sees Russia as superpower that cannot catch up. The problem with this fact is that there are four reasons: 1) Climate and geography give Russia a disadvantage. 2) Putin's own growing corruption. 3) The economic heritage. 4) The political heritage: For many US-Americans the Russians are evil communists which must be indeed blocked in their development, consequently this includes the sabotage of Russia's connection to Europe. -- Putin reasons that if USA doesn't "play fair" that he also doesn't need to play fair. But since Russia is in disadvantage Putin sees himself forced to use an even intensified level of ruthlessness. '''To overcome this position of weakness Putin decided to rule Russia in an autocratic style and take by force what he cannot get with legal methods.''' - Putin must be utterly frustrated that he could not lift Russia's status out of being an underdog. His entire second part of his lifespan was not enough to "restore" Russia. It seems that he snapped about that fact. - '''Besides the natural economic competition, military and political hardliners intensified a feedback loop in which USA and Russia still fight each each up to this day. - Anyway, the attack on Ukraine was the last red line Putin shouldn't have crossed. There is absolutely no credible justification for this attack.''' | ||
Scenario 2: A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions. | Scenario 2: A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions. | ||
:: There are rumors that say that USA and Russia welcome the conflict to distract from their own internal problems - intensified by the pandemic - sometimes connected to US-American LNG fracking gas and Russian pipeline gas. (In the conspiracy theory near thoughts USA is the only profiteer.) While a distraction for own citizen is more plausible for Russia it rises the question how long they are willing to blow money with that gigantic maneuver. Aren't there natural limits to this? Two years? One year? Six month? | :: There are rumors that say that USA and Russia welcome the conflict to distract from their own internal problems - intensified by the pandemic - sometimes connected to US-American LNG fracking gas and Russian pipeline gas. (In the conspiracy theory near thoughts USA is the only profiteer.) While a distraction for own citizen is more plausible for Russia it rises the question how long they are willing to blow money with that gigantic maneuver. Aren't there natural limits to this? Two years? One year? Six month? | ||
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:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | :: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | ||
::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ||
:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now a continued Omicron wave bringing up hospitalization rate - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. It won't cause a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will | :::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now a continued Omicron wave bringing up hospitalization rate - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. It won't cause a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | ||
:::* Given that the conflict and depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees could leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | :::* Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees could leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
:: The call for Islamic "volunteers" and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". '''Then again, will Putin run out of bombs someday?''' The West riddles why dumb bombs are dropped instead of guided bombs. Is it just wishful thinking? Allegedly Putin already asked Xi to restock his weapon and ammunition depots. | :: The call for Islamic "volunteers" and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". '''Then again, will Putin run out of bombs someday?''' The West riddles why dumb bombs are dropped instead of guided bombs. Is it just wishful thinking? Allegedly Putin already asked Xi to restock his weapon and ammunition depots and allegedly Lawrow's airplane returned home midway after getting under US-induced pressure from China. | ||
::: Scenario 2 extension: 2022.03.13 Conventional attacks couldn't destroy all Ukrainian forces. Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries by constantly warning (bluffing) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer and provoke harder NATO answers. Given how bad the Russian army is performing it seems that substantial deliveries can turn tables - at least in a bloody long lasting guerilla war. | ::: Scenario 2 extension: 2022.03.13 Conventional attacks couldn't destroy all Ukrainian forces. Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries by constantly warning (bluffing) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer and provoke harder NATO answers. Given how bad the Russian army is performing it seems that substantial deliveries can turn tables - at least in a bloody long lasting guerilla war. | ||
:::: As consequence Putin might block or destroy all conveys even humanitarian ones in real or pretextual suspect that they will secretly transport weapons. | :::: As consequence Putin might block or destroy all conveys even humanitarian ones in real or pretextual suspect that they will secretly transport weapons. | ||
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::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ||
:: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | :: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | ||
=====Rat tail of consequences===== | |||
* Pro-Ukrainian Belarus create an exile army, a possible begin for a Belarus civil war after the Russia-Ukraine war? | |||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||