Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

Edit: Summarized, Putin walks ruthlessly over bodies but he is a rational killer after all. We didn't had the "wrong" estimation per se. It was Putin who had the wrong estimation because he was given false information. His own intelligence agencies and military gave him wrong facts. They were too afraid of telling him the truth about Russian forces and Ukraine's situation. That means that Putin would still have attacked Ukraine but only when he had the power to do so.

: * These days you often hear that Putin has an ideology. I think that's just pretextual, a justification and tool for mass manipulation. He had no problem in keeping the MiGs for war and not let them fly at the military parades. He tried to calm the families of fallen soldiers. He only halfhearted held a sign to remember the deads during the march of the immortal regiment, a once concurrent movement he found to be useful for his own ends. He isn’t talking of taking the entire Ukraine anymore, but the Donbas, simply changing a war goal that was placed in that ideology. Putin ended his speech with a halfhearted hooray and before it was fully out of his mouth he was about to turn away. Sarcastic undertones on. If he is given the right information he knows what he is doing. Sarcastic undertones off. Just because Putin "has" (uses) an ideology doesn't necessarily mean he believes it himself. Unfortunately, Putin is not ready yet to give up on his stubbornness, he is not used to lose.

The food sector being Putin's hostage begins to take effect. EU should finally switch to war economy. A step they also missed to do during Corona. Baerbock just announced the G7 will increase their effort to vaccinate the global south and other kind of support to mitigate historical mistakes (colonialism) and Putin's propaganda of an at least selfish West. Anyway, vaccine injections cannot replace corn.

'''Invasion scenarios'''

* Scenario 1: Based on pure logic a full-fledged war across the entire Ukraine is improbable. (Also, Bundeswehr sees not much of a risk. The Ukraine doesn't want the escalation to be made real by US talk. And Snowden raised [https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016?cxt=HHwWgMC55bfOvbopAAAA questions], too.) Usually, an attack is carried out as fast as possible so the enemy has no time to prepare his defense. Then again, even if Russia invades they cannot keep such a vast area under control.

:: The communication by western administrations (and media) - especially of USA - has been criticized as warmongering. Apparently, the current strategy is to speak about war as much as possible (to unite own allies behind the banner of NATO) and make Russia not want to prove the West right.

::: USA had many shady military and secret intelligence missions (CIA) in foreign nations. This includes installation of new government in rogue nations. Consequently these are made pro-USA. And as side effect USA often profits economically in an intensified way.

:::: '''Among critics you can often hear the "blood for oil" thesis or "No blood for oil" slogan, saying in quintessence that USA is using its military to protect its advantage in buying, producing or mining the resources. However, nations with less potential power or by simply being smaller are always in disadvantage and are in danger of getting exploited by economic dynamics.''' (Pretty everyone tries or tried to exploit African nations.) On the other hand there is the military-industrial complex and ideological factors that add their bits and pieces to foreign policy - may it be the readiness to use military and the "sense of mission" (own belief in being forced) to bring democracy to nations with a different cultural environment.

::: Sometimes these missions (for new governments / nation building) end up in unwillingly facilitating new radical forces - like the Taliban or the Islamic State. This makes its sometimes hard to believe that USA speaks the truth. '''The "collateral damage" - including the eavesdrop of global communication - is so massive that whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange (WikiLeaks) can reveal that many tons of mistakes and wrongdoing that they were declared public enemies. USA is at times itself a problematic role model. They created an empire not simply by - but yet partially by - questionable methods and accepted high amounts of killed civilians and violated human rights at [[wp:CIA_black_sites|CIA black sides]] like [[wp:Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp|Guantanamo]] which not even Nobel peace laureate Barack Obama was willing to close.''' If the inmates were not radicalized at the beginning they were after years of humiliation and torture. Their release poses a new threat to USA so the shutdown of Guantanamo is considered possible only in small steps. Putin sees Russia as superpower that cannot catch up. The problem with this fact is that there are four reasons: 1) Climate and geography give Russia a disadvantage. 2) Putin's own growing corruption. 3) The economic heritage. 4) The political heritage: For many US-Americans the Russians are evil communists which must be indeed blocked in their development, consequently this includes the sabotage of Russia's connection to Europe. -- Putin reasons that if USA doesn't play fair that he also doesn't need to play fair. But since Russia is in disadvantage Putin sees himself forced to use an even intensified level of ruthlessness. '''To overcome this position of weakness Putin decided to rule Russia in an autocratic style and take by force what he cannot get with legal methods.''' - Putin must be utterly frustrated that he could not lift Russia's status out of being an underdog. His entire second part of his lifespan was not enough to "restore" Russia. It seems that he snapped about that fact. - '''Besides the natural economic competition, military and political hardliners intensified a feedback loop in which USA and Russia still fight each each up to this day. - Anyway, the attack on Ukraine was the last red line Putin shouldn't have crossed. There is absolutely no credible justification for this attack.'''

Scenario 2: A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions.

:: There are rumors that say that USA and Russia welcome the conflict to distract from their own internal problems - intensified by the pandemic - sometimes connected to US-American LNG fracking gas and Russian pipeline gas. (In the conspiracy theory near thoughts USA is the only profiteer.) While a distraction for own citizen is more plausible for Russia it rises the question how long they are willing to blow money with that gigantic maneuver. Aren't there natural limits to this? Two years? One year? Six month?

::: Sure, generally USA wants to protect their zone of influence too but you cannot say their motives are specifically about fracking gas. It is an automatic consequence of the conflict (therefore irony of life) that Putin helps USA in selling their fracking gas to EU. Additional conspiracy theory-near constructs or let’s say further ulterior motives are not required to sufficiently explain this. (Our US friends won’t be unhappy about the bonus win though.)

Scenario 3: '''If Russia is not given any "security" guarantees''' (geopolitical ''cake slice'') they might acknowledge separatists areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) as independent - and annex them in a more far future. (A victory distributed in smaller steps.) The military maneuver right now is like holding a gun to the head of Ukraine to ensure step one. "Do you want to say no? What are you gonna do. Come on, it could be far worse." '''It could be a game about building up a massive wall of threats and very [https://www.nzz.ch/international/ukraine-und-russland-neues-szenario-fuer-den-donbass-ld.1666400?reduced=true high demands] and then let the enemy (NATO) agree to seemingly small points.''' It would be a [https://web.archive.org/web/20180222154736/https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/ostukraine-konflikt-russland-separatisten-paesse-anerkennung-waffenruhe continuation] of a dynamic that started [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/separatistengebiete-in-ukraine-putin-deutet-anerkennung-an-a-1029376.html long ago]. -- Putin's calculation could be that mediocre sanctions come and go but soil is kept "forever".

:: A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia more or less waits for the conflict between separatists and Ukrainian military to heat up. Western partners tell Ukraine not get provoked. Russia spoke bluntly of military technical responses if no concessions are made. Heavy counter attacks would give Russia the '''pretext to "secure" the conflict zone'''. This Scenario is the most probable as it goes hand in hand with the Russian domestic propaganda. -- Some people speculate that Putin overplayed his hand (geopolitical demands) so that he needs something else as a "victory" and exit. In reality it would be a pyrrhic victory but that is something more domestic propaganda would cover.

::: The rat tail of consequences: Ukrainian government was not impressed by Russia's threats. They said they would never accept the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to prevent big scale of Western weapon deliveries and the take back of ground Putin attacked the entire Ukraine backed up by weird historic justifications and the assertion to prevent a genocide (meant for domestic propaganda). For a long lasting effect he needs to destroy the entire military. And to prevent its rebuild he needs to replace the Ukrainian government as well. -- '''Putin might have miscalculated how bloody the war would get and therefore needs further justification.''' The take over of Chernobyl gives him a better possibility to fake Ukrainian plans for [[wp:Dirty_bomb|dirty bombs]]. In theory Putin could use all forces at once (even though waves are standard), other heavy weapons (TOS-1, vacuum bombs) or nukes to accomplish his military goals but in practice the collateral damage in human lives would make him the mass-murderer (from "mediocre" to top level). His propaganda machinery in not powerful enough to cover that much damage. Also this would very probable trigger even further sanctions.

:::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. 

:::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s>

:::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be to skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage containment''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and NATO embedded Western Balkan states becoming soon attack targets are therefore unrealistic. This leaves Moldova and the Caucasus states like Georgia as plausible attack options.

::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter.

:: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal.

* Scenario 1: Many people describe Russia as a kleptocracy where Putin, his fellows and the oligarchs are utterly corrupt and feed on the ordinary citizen. '''The problem with really persisting, devastating Western sanctions is that they might not break Russia's system but push it into more corruption, nationalism, militarism, totalitarianism.''' In worst case it is possible that Russia takes the world hostage for economic support: not by dominance but by simply being dangerous. '''North Korea XXL on nuclear steroids.''' -- Sanctions can not only damage Putin. He can also use them to strengthen his propaganda: that ''the West is all evil and wants to hinder Russia's development''. There are plans to make an isolated Russian internet. With a leaving of intelligencia and financial better situated people competition for Russia will get additionally more difficult. Will Putin close the borders someday?

:: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change.

:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner and outer political reasons he will try to avoid a slaughtering of all Ukrainians. Their expulsion is a bonus in destabilizing Europe. Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could still declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. In worst case '''Ukraine could become (temporarily) a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders.

:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural immunization occurred by now. We might see a continued Omicron wave that increases '''hospitalization numbers''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the seasonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP.

:::: Update: Putin's attempt to continue the blitzkrieg as "regular" war also failed. The collapsed wave of refugees helped stop fueling the Omikron wave. But that doesn't mean to throw over all current efforts and preparation plans for new refugees. ''Better save than sorry.'' -- As a SPIEGEL reporter noted some terror acts were the result of a wrath dynamic against the civil population, other terror acts were probably ordered and were part of the new strategy. In any case we will probably witness more of them. But if every massacre forces an reaction we would have an gas embargo by midsummer because we don't have that many Russian diplomats that we could kicked out for face saving. If no gas embargo is done politicians will have to rethink their option on transferring heavy weapons to Ukraine. [https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article238015209/Ukraine-Krieg-Ukraine-bittet-Scholz-direkt-um-Panzer-doch-dieser-zoegert.html Are the Marder infantry fighting vehicles really indispensable because they are bound resources in NATO duty?] As long as Russia is busy in Ukraine - and they will be even more when the Marders are moved there - the argument feels "not on point". Also, if NVA tanks can be moved then the MiG jets should be moved as well.

:::* <span style="color:gray;">Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a "mediocre" scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.</span>

:: The call for Islamic "volunteers" and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Zelenskyy "in time". '''Then again, will Putin run out of bombs someday?''' The West riddles why dumb bombs are dropped instead of guided bombs. Is it just wishful thinking? Allegedly Putin already asked Xi to restock his weapon and ammunition depots and allegedly Lawrow's airplane returned home midway after getting under US-induced pressure from China.

:: The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid escalations (and a followup blame game). This has of course changed after the invasion by Russia.)

::: However, '''the Ukrainians are motivated to resist'''. The war could go on for a long time. Will the Ukraine become another Afghanistan for Russia? Too expensive to be continued by Russia? Some are [https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/02/22/will-ukraine-be-russias-next-afghanistan/?sh=32c4fe0763f2 not so sure.] On the other hand there are signs indicating that Putin's advisors and generals gave him too optimistic predictions. '''As for peace negotiations the West is unlikely to accept new border lines and Russia cannot not simply leave without face-saving. It is the task of diplomacy to find a solution.''' This hasn't been made easier as more politicians now support Ukraine's joining to EU and NATO. Also NATO members are going increase defense spending and Putin (officially) wanted a demilitarization. A messed up situation. -- Putin seems to lose but cannot easily retreat. Just in case he unfortunately manages to stay in the game. Here's an idea: '''To make this a success disclosure of all conditions is not advisable.''' UN peacekeeping forces should be stationed for two, three years in Luhansk and Donetsk guarantee their "security" and prevent discrimination of local Russians. For the sake of a quick freedom let Putin have face-saving propaganda. He could sell it as "most importantly we removed the [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZEhLpSjHZk neo-Nazis] from the areas around Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukrainian Russians will not longer be terrorized and killed. Through the effort of our heroic troops Ukraine is demilitarized and will stay that way. [Mission accomplished.]" After that also face-saving grace period the areas return to Ukraine. Their should be economic aids to rebuild and modernize the Ukraine but especially these areas to further support the social healing and strengthen the peaceful coexistence. Secret condition: make a green deal with Russia - with technology transfers and future cooperation in research and in the economic sectors. (We also need Russia to stop climate change!) The Ukraine would be allowed to join EU and NATO but they also need to demilitarize. (Equipment gets handed over to nearest NATO partners.) '''The Ukraine will have the luxury to not need a military - Germany will fill that gap. The Ukraine can focus on economy, especially the hydrogen for EU. In return NATO partners GUARANTEE Ukraine's security so that no local troops are needed. They can rely on article 5.''' They would pay 0% for the defense budget during the first 20 years and 1% GDP in the next additional 20 years. (As real economic support but also as motivation to agree to the deal.) This can serve Putin's own narrative of "security" needs and name Ukraine a "buffer zone". Also, would Russia show anytime new aggression against Ukraine this decision is revoked and Ukraine get Blitz armed by NATO.

:: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future post-Putin Russian government is honestly interested in such.

 

 

 

After Putin's suicidal attack on Ukraine Russia will likely become a mere satellite to China: The red giant had a few concerns at the beginning but is now "supporting" his new subordinate more openly. Though the relationship will remain complicated - and limited, at least for now. Getting more resources from Russia is more of a mid- and long-term option because they need time and investment and stand in concurrence to the amount of business China can do with the West right now.

 

''Schlimmer geht immer.''

However, Russia revived the European part of NATO. Now with a secured back old superpower USA could concentrate more power in the Pacific. China's biggest strategic mistake during the pandemic was to not get mRNA vaccines, for ideological reasons [https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/china-perseveres-with-mrna-covid-shot-development-amid-omicron-commercial-2022-02-28/ they tried stick to their own attempts] and hampered its own growth. Russia and China showed themselves to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in geopolitical questions but given enough push and pull Russia could not just end up as satellite but as pinata, hanging there waiting to get economically slaughtered by a frustrated China to finally win against USA.