Talk:Restless Souls/Summary

Order of events

Maybe filling in some numbers later to make this a full-fledged timeline. For now I only need the order of events.

This is a rough summary. Details may or may not be added.

• WCG happens
• Bioattack in Suez (Griffin, GATC "indirectly" involved)
• Artificial mycorrhiza happens
• Operation Hotdog (Kimura, Griffin)
• Barabas and others died or went MIA, Griffin frustrated
• Xeno hybrids (mutated mycorrhiza with new symbionts, begin of a new "BioCrisis" that overshadows the others)
• Puppet master program (last chance for winning the war, Griffin knows GATC went too far and kills GATC sci and joins TCTF)
• Blackstars happens (GATC soldiers form merc group)
• ACC construction
• Feng: "after Suez, research must be regulated", sci prisons
• Bioc tech happens, Blackstars destroys the company of Dakosta's father
• Griffin takes Bioc tech, gives it to WCG (trust gain, used for GV's construction)
• GOP happens
• Jamie dies
• CDC, Walker sends Hanna to GV
• Standoff, Hasegawa
• Hasegawa, Kerr join Syndicate
• [Weeks passes until Hanna is invited to GV]
• Marburg incidence
• Hanna Curtis airplane chat
• [Hanna uses a MRSA "blocker"]
• Hanna, Blake, GV
• Kimura, Blue mountain worker
• Kimura gets sample from GV, Hanna ok
• Kimura kills worker
• Hanna talks with Bertram
• Kimura contacts then kidnaps Pensatore
• Avatara finishes Daodan Chrysalis
• Griffin, Iron Demon takeover
• Avatara tries to get back Pensatore, Syn. evacuates/TCTF lab raid (soon after Kerr left the area, the TCTF arrives)
• Kerr takes Mai to TCTF
• Mai Biosafty, Pest control (assassination plans for Muro)
• Maria (Hanna) joins TCTF
• Mai fake OP (Maria, Kerr fool Griffin)
• Corruption of Hasegawa by Kimura
• Shinatama, intro
• Jack, Intro
• Mukade, Intro
• Churi, Intro
• Muro, Ryu, Tomo, Kimura vs Strikers
• Traton, Intro
• Jack's father almost killed
• Griffin, Iron Demon
• Kumo sends killers after Griffin
• Griffin, Mai and the reindeers (indoc)
• Takahashi, intro
• Griffin, Victor planning against Kumo (to eliminate Syn. threat for Neo-Tokio)
• Griffin, Mai, Daya
• Vendret, intro
• Muro (note to self: do more 'chapter rotations' of Muro and Mai)
• - Life in the Camp
• - Friendly rivalry with Ryu
• - Muros's missions with Traton and Daodandroids
• - Saomi, GATC Z
• - Alliance with BGI, Sarai, intro
• Churi, Sledgehammer, bar
• - Car bomb, death of Tomo
• - Furies
• - Further assassination attempts from Z
• - Death of Pensatore
• - Death of Hasegawa
• - Exil of Traton
• - Sturmanderung plans, Muro
• - Dispute with Ryu
• - War against BGI
• - Peace treaty with BGI (temporary, they build Iron Demons)
• Sturmänderung (Oni 1.5) including missing chapters
• Mukade reanimated, enslaved by Pensatore
• Pensatore rescues Shinatama (Shin questions her own ego, is something of her soul missing? Hence removes "(a)tama" from her name, pun: tama = soul, atama = head (in Japanese), also: "Shin" is a base for the word "die", so in total: "died without a soul" or "without a head you die")

Inner conflict is intensified by Mai's cultural background.
* Her mother was American and her father Japanese.
** Western thinking: Robots are dead matter; Japanese thinking: in Shinto pretty much everything can have a soul
** The TCTF does not assume SLD are alive but simulated. On the other hand Shin is based on Mai's original personality and might have a free will - something Pensatore asked her. How much of a copy are "Brain engramms"? If simulated brain activity - or their "results" - are indistinguishable from "real" - why not grand the "host" human rights?

• GATC Z fails to eliminate Muro (Imago stage)
• Mai destroys Syn. mountain complex
• Oni 2 happens

Story lab

Open threads

• Hardy's title names and themes for Oni 2 and 3 - can we recycle some aspects?
• Exploring Mai/Jack story arc based on music album The Unforgiving.
• AI of GOP desert vs. Muro
• Deadly Brain arc (Neuronal Processing Units)
• Green Phönix, evolutionary forerunners of Phyllions (Mai teaches other hosts how to establish symbiosis with daodanized plants. She is seen as a candidate for "New Gaia".)

Merging

I will try to fix inconsistencies later between the summaries.

Summary attempt 2 (focus on Avatara)

I always wanted to introduce some folks that get "ancient". Their emergence is inevitable. They are the consequence of technological progress and human's wish to improve themselves, resulting in longer and longer lifetimes, eventually in their potentially biological immortality.

The Ancients are the first of their kind which puts them into challenges of all sorts. Daodan hosts have a good chance to reach biological immortality before others do and survive possible wars in that new phase of unrest. In theory peaceful coexistence is possible but unlikely. The human mind evolves slower than his tools and powers. The threat of a new world war is not banned. The question is can they survive another one and if yes, will they learn enough from it?

The new summary attempt will only change few aspects. But the technological dimension will be expanded one more time. That expansion looks almost marginal to the existing material but its aftermath will be substantial for some characters.

[Notes/preliminary]

• Syndicate Sky Drive (SSD, ambivalent abbreviation on purpose)

The Network (Comguy/Controller group) aims to create new information processing and transportation means to eventually outsmart WCG and TCTF.

This happens by the abuse of city domes (graphene shields) to create an alternative internet which technological background is completely unknown to the TCTF. The Network's laser technology can create phonon within the graphene structures. The shield is not build homologous which allows for more directed phonon propagation. At another location a second laser is used to read out the information of the phonons.

• As the city domes can fail to function or are shut down by authorities the next step is the development of a more universal infrastructure, SSD2. The Network experimented with nanotechnology to manipulate particle creation within the atmosphere. When they heard of the Bioc, a geo-engenering project, they were all ear. They eventually plan to let erupt some volcanoes to shoot massive quantities of Bioc material into the higher atmospheres. And from that on everything could change. Information control, whether control, control of solar winds/energy. But for that the airborne bioc needs itself a control instance just like its counterpart on the ground. The Network plans to capture Daya to alter and upload her mind to SSD2. When Daya was captured for biosafty concerns the Network ruins Mukade's objective and forces her bioc infection to spread and reach a critical mass. Their plans works out to the point that she successfully merges Daodan and Bioc. However, their attempt to alter her mind fails with her escape from the Syndicate facility. The second attempt also fails when they use Pensatore as a tool to literally let her explode together with the Bioc main mass in Green Village.
• The Network manages to build on the airborne fragments resulting in the birth of an atmospheric AI. They need it all the more as Avatara hunts them for having murdered Shinatama. The Network is then independent from satellites and can kick off a destructive collision cascade (Kessler syndrome) to greatly hamper WCG's and Avatara's communications eventually rendering them incapable of acting quickly enough to win that war.
• Avatara's counter measure against SSD2 started with a Bioc pattern injected into the Tanzania craton (old continental core mass). More exactly, the Bioc worked on the black magma of the Ol Doinyo Lengai volcano. The carbon-rich materials were prepared to create self-assembling structures in the atmosphere once the volcano would be blown up with a series of timed nuclear detonations. For this purpose uran was mined near the Selous Game Reserve. As the Bioc operated in kilometers of depth nobody else than Avatara was really aware of the events. At the same time, the craton is interesting for diamond mining. The diamond particles were processed to have N-V centers, therefor generating more QC building blocks.
• "Fighting fire with fire." Avatara thought he acted adequately to the situation by taking over the airborne AI of the Network with a competing infrastructure (basically a massive hardware trojan). Avatara had to act quickly. The SSD2 AI, Aether, potentially allows for weather control, distribution of sunlight, channeling of solar wind by manipulating the magnetosphere. Ripping a hole into the magnetosphere by supraconducting structures would allow the solar radiation to hit Earth and render good parts of the planet inhabitable. A risk that must be prevented. It turned out that Avatara underestimated the political shockwaves within human communities and therefor the implications on Gaia. Also, the AI of nature herself was mad that Avatara set an end to the annual wildebeest migration at the Ol Doinyo Lengai, sacrificing others of millions of animal lifes, bringing nuclear contamination to the ecosystem and causing a global dimming that endangered all photosynthesis. It destroyed her trust in Avatara almost completely.
• By using a captured proxy of Avatara the Network was eventually ready to write new core functions of Gaia - an act that must be authorized by Gaia herself, Avatara and the omega groups. The threat of an airborne AI (v1) was a red herring. The irony was that Avatara improved that airborne AI but also lost control over it again together with Gaia's trust.
• In an act of desperation Avatara establishes the Mind Seal. This can be seen as an extension of the WCG science prison concept but affecting all humans and "unapproved" artificial life (AL).
• The two volcano eruptions needed a clean up of the atmosphere. Inverse tornadoes concentrated the particles which were collected on the ground to build the Guardians meant to harness the human intellect and protect it from self-destruction.
• Some Network members planed to upload themselves to SSD2. Their most cybernized member actually has no other choice, he had turned himself into an extreme NPU to better connect with computers. It was slowly killing him.
• Mukade hold Pensatore and Hasegawa both hostage in a BGI deep sea research and mining complex. Pensatore freed himself by letting him devour by the Bioc. When the later actions destroyed the complex Hasegawa drowned in flooding corridors. The destruction set the Bioc free that devoured Pensatore before and did the same with Hasegawa. However, Hasegawa's damaged consciousness remains captured within the dark deep sea grave.
• Pensatore: "I sacrificed you, Hasegawa, to save the world, as you sacrificed your son Muro." (Echo of Christian mythology: god sacrificed his only son to safe all humans and Jesus resists the devil in the desert who offers him all empires.) The theme evolved by coincidence as GOP is a religious power set in a desert location. Story-wise this can be used to underline Muro's transformation into "a more good man", rejecting GOP and their sole claim for peace after bringing Armageddon. Muro is no longer a man of pure madness. It shall remain the idea that humans can achieve more paradisaical conditions just if they wanted to by using technology and true cooperation. Of course an naive thought in face of reality and so Muro returns to Ryu and the Syndicate to "minimize evil". He knows he has to make up for Sturmänderung and the corrupted people that believed in it and used any means necessary. In that perspective Pensatore can be seen as evil or the devil himself, trying to save humans from God's plan (Daodan) as Pensatore is too much concerned for the ego of people, to stay in control, while getting himself consumed by hate.
• It takes ages until Muro finds this father and frees him from the grasp of Gaia and her subordinates (King of Styx and other). "It took me a while to get back to you, dad." The reunions remains marred as Hasegawa has lost most of his memories and they can't yet return to the planet's surface.
• While Muro becomes the new ruler of the subterranean Bioc, Mai is on the surface transforming slowly into a part of nature, making her kind of a rival to Gaia which together the airborne AI has turned against all the other major players of the planet.
• [?] (rival) kills Kimura and Mukade (done by Ryu and Muro). In the past Mukade spared his rivals life but that didn't made up for the other acts.
• Avatara detects another personality in the dead Mukade (ego hybrida). The body hosted the consciousness of Kimura and Hasegawa, with the death of all biological cells only Pensatore's SLD cells remained. This Pensatore mind copy pretends to be on Avatara's sides. He aims to get rid of all Daodans and takes the name Pandora, officially working for META as Daodan hunter.
• Pandora and Mai resemble memhunters, one getting into sync with society and the other becoming a rough agent. Mai continues to hunt technology crimes. Avatara sends her on the mission to take down the Network for good and end the Wizard war (see Mind Seal story).
• Corruption of Gaia
• Destruction of planet Earth (collision)

Summary attempt 1.5 (focus on Mai)

GATC administration wanted Mai to go for Green Village. They have a deal with WCG which needed quickly a scapegoat to calm the masses. In return GATC is rehabilitated as military force in the former US state regions and if things go well these states also regain partial sovereignty. That is at least the official version.

GATC told Mai to support the search for her father and that there are hints to be investigated in Green Village. “Now that the Syndicate declared war the WCG gives us access to new information regarding the Daodan. Also, we need you to take down some other symbionts who were not at Muro’s hideout.”

When Green Village was run over by Sarai and her troops Mai retreated. She was simply too powerful for Mai.

(After tracing the GATC transmission at ground zero of Muro's mountain compound Traton ask his BGI contacts to infiltrate the group because the double agent has connection to WCG men and that's not something Traton is good at dealing with. BGI uncovers GATC being a potential rival or rouge element, best to be eliminated from the global equation?)

In a next step BGI invaded GATC’s HQ and blackmailed them. Either they cancel their Daodan program or GATC will be blamed for genocide alongside Mai.

To fulfill BGI’s demands and carry out their own plan GATC set up a rigged scenario: Mai isn’t yet a very fear-inflicting monster (Imago) and they had no footage for WCG’s propaganda so they let fight their Daodan hosts against Mai.

Based on project Spare GATC replicated humans with Mai’s DNA. 13 replicas or “R” were produced to study different routes of hyperevolution.

Number symbolism: 12 functional R, 1 disfunctional R, Mai as first or 14th instance of her own (when all combined). (Will she have the size of "Mutant Muro"?)

As the "powerless" R has no functional cores to pass on, Mai can be seen as the "luckless" merge of 13. Who knows what role the "powerless" cores will play in the future...

When Blackstars got to know that HQ was invaded by an unknown group they decide to re-conquer the HQ. (All the more since in a decoy transmission BGI claimed to found a backup of Griffin’s snatched secured research which they will have decoded in 21 hours.) The administration and BGI cuts off Mai from the rest of her team and let her fight the heavily altered replica. However, Mai received help from a Shinobi (no associated with Mukade) to beat all R. At times he weakened some R and sabotaged their equipment, the administration gave him the means to to so. Mai follows Kojiro’s hint to obtain the Daodan cores of each R to boost her powers so she would stand a chance against the strongest R and Sarai one day. GATC administration hoped to push Mai finally into Imago stage by letting her obtain all cores and fighting nonstop. Sarai stood by to capture Mai.

In a final fight Sarai wounded Mai very badly with an anti-Daodan weapon. Mai managed to escape but felt into stasis shortly afterwards.

Griffin rescued her but one day Black Phönix found their hideout. In Griffin’s absence they capture Mai and transforms her into a mindless killing machine.

Meanwhile Muro escaped from the desert and joined Ryu. When Muro found out about Mai he tried to beat some sense back into her.

However Mai’s body and mind is fragmented by the experiments of Black Phönix. Her Daodan cores that needed to restore her memory and adaptions has been transplanted into soldiers of META. Griffin and friends sent her on missions to get back those cores, therefor restoring her full memory. That is to prepare her for fighting Sarai and Traton, head of META.

Summary attempt 1 (focus on GV)

GATC convinces Mai to join. How exactly do they do this?

They want to secure the Daodan production site and depot at Green Village. Also they want to find out what happened to Hasegawa and ask him how much advanced the Syndicate Daodan program really is.

Mai destroyed the ACCs. She is responsible for poisoning the people with polluted air. She needs to fix that. GATC makes her feel guilty which is an easy game.

GATC also names a fake reason: They are interested in her abilities. They try to bait her with pride. But as a host of a first generation Daodan, she can sense the presence of other symbionts among the GATC team.

Bonus: The administration wants Mai under their control since they plan to trade her against sovereignty, re-establishing USA.

This is recognized by the GATC troops as a dangerous game as the whole organization could be stigmatized as terrorists group if WCG don't agree on the deal. As the administration wants to secure the Daodan technology and depot, this makes it even easier for the WCG to create a suspicion among the population and blame them for the Black Season. ("What are you thinking GATC were doing there?" Traton discovered the puppetmaster in WCG politician circle.

Traton negotiates with WCG to create META. Pensatore's Keslersyndrom cuts off WCG from satellite communication. They need the Syndicates internet and drone technologies.

In order to get back the Daodan depot WCG attacks GV. They don't ask the Syndicate as they might keep the DCs for themselves. They don't know that the Syndicate Daodan depot selfdestruct after Muro's life signal was terminated. A security against rivals. Only Sayomi has one as reserve. So only a half of Camp Sturmanderung is daodanized. Sayomi's body receives very heavy physical treatment to speed up the transformation process. She wants to hunt down Mai for vengeance and to ensure the Striker's loyalty. "We are one family. I will continue to protect your future. Just like Muro has envisioned it. We will surpass these humans."

Traton: "You aren't strong enough yet [against Konoko]. Why don't you pay the old man [Griffin] a visit first?"

Sayomi in Griffin hospital room: "No. You don't know me. And it's not important. But it's important that you are still alive. I will make you pay for taking him away from me." "Who?" Saomi puts Griffin on fire. "You will die just like he did. Burning and buried under rocks."

Sayomi returns from her liquidation mission. Wrath for Griffin's interference in the mountain complex, followed by Muro's death.

BGI sends also their agents to GV to control the situation. Iron Demon 2.0 is used to hunt the DC hosts. (Model v1.0 was destroyed by Mai when she visited BGI HQ. In a cutscene you can see the unfinished, second model. - Checking the google docs later for consistency.)

Traton: "The damage control teams reported our latest upgrades were meant to clean the air even better. - Can we use that information? - Also get me Mukade. Or shot him. I don't care. Set a bounty to one trillion credits." "Huh, that's a lot of money." "And the end of the world. It's worth nothing."

Old Shinobi clan is reactivated to hunt the traitor. Shinatama is going to defend him as she knows that his brain engrams are crucial for Hasegawa's reanimation (just like Shinatama's engrams can be used to reanimate Mai). Avatara tries to remain a neutral bystander.

Operation Proteus: Traton declares Griffin death as justified as WCG and TCTF and Mai caused the black season. Also, his teams were working on repairing/upgrading the ACCs. Traton: "They will not negate with us. We must increase the pressure."

Video clips show Hasegawa working on the DC. It contains information of the old lab. Mai and GATC cannot resist to search for that lab. The Syndicate and Sayomi awaits them. Mai manages to kill the Syndicate team. Saomi barely survives and returns to African HQ. She gets banned by Ryu and his Sniper/Shinobi fellow Okamin.

--

In consideration:

Mai and her GATC team has left Green Village as it was invaded by WCG military. In the lab she should have found something that helps her. Maybe a Daodan upgrade. A telomere regeneration code so that she doesn't age so fast like Muro and something "useful" information. After their trip to Hasegawa's second lab they sneak back into the village. WCG made it a quarantine zone after seeing from close distance what the Bioc infection means. At some point she should meet Ryu. Since Hasegawa isn't in his second lab he should be in a another Syndicate-owned location. Anyway, probably Ryu is going after Green Village too after having killed Kumo who started the chain-reaction.

It seems only a matter of time before WCG decides to extinguish the whole region with a series of nuclear bombs. Also, the nuclear radiation attracts the bioc main mass which degrades them. It's Pensatore's massive energy beam* that overloads the structure while killing almost everyone on the battlefield including the GOP creatures and Mukdade. However, the habitants are going to survives in Daya's bioc catacombs (resemble a second protection layer like a over-dimensionized cell nucleus) while Konoko stands on burned ground. Mai collapses in the believe that she came to late to somehow evacuate the people. Hasegawa was revealed to have drowned and Jack was apparently hanged by a city mob during the Proteus operation.

* Mukade shows that he is not longer under Pensatore's control when he encounters Daya and Nishio on the battlefield. That means that the ninja is of no longer use and Pensotore gives in to his desire for revenge. However, in attempt to eradicate Mukade, the microwave beam creates another enigma. Nishio's pulverized graphene shield becomes resembled, creating a giant crystallized structure with an carbonized orb in its center. It had conducted the energy into bioc main mass and has withstood the following explosion. During all the years, the orb remains untouched as a war memorial. It is said that at dark, cold winter nights aurora sinks down to the orb, guiding lost souls to find a place to rest.

Pensatore: "You think that the Bioc is a danger? I totally agree with you. And you are doing a great job in concentrating it in this area. However, you are also a threat to all of us. After this incidence you will continue where you left off. Avatara is your next target in your egoistic plan, isn't it?! - I cannot allow that." (Shinatama will blame Avatara for sparing Penstore's life because he is his mental father and saved him from Mukade's control.)

5 years later: Mai becomes reanimated by Phönix.

....

Maybe I should try out a plotline without letting Mai fall into a coma. It feels like it shortens her actions too much.

....

BGI backups the rebellion against META as they fear to be eradicated if they don't do something. BGI tries to recruit Mai as she is one of very few Daodan host that isn't working for META. Shinatama tries to help her while fighting against Pandora, META's Daodan hunter. Traton is also killed by her. Avatara watch her preparations in their R&D location. "Looks like you are going to kill even more." "And you just don't seem to care. -- Be honest." "Is that a reproach?" "Well, you don't choose any side. Yet, you are probably the most powerful person on this planet and you don't even try to fight evil." "Is it evil to seek economic dominance. You all support this [capitalistic] system. But as soon as it doesn't pay off you turn against it. META is restricting technology. I don't see anything wrong with that. Humans are destructive. As for your friend Mai Hasegawa, why should she not be punished by the law. She destroyed the ACCs. It's a fact." Shinatama was stopped re-assembling her rifle for a moment. In continuing she said: "Sometimes you still surprise me." "How that?" "That someone that smart can be so stupid."

Worldbuilding

Some brainstorming on fictional timelines, semi-proceeding geopolitics and other topics by taking inspiration from the real world.

My thinking is that "interesting" science fiction has some kind of relevance for our current reality. Ergo, so why not take some more ideas from reality? Our world offers many conflicts to tell interesting stories. The negative side is that politics can be extremely polarizing. The original story was wonderful unpolitical. So I will try to keep that as a tradition even though the brainstorming may not look like that.

Since Green Village feature many WCG-ish but also "old world" characters (Russians, Europeans, etc.) I want to explore their possible backgrounds.

Postnational influences

Because WCG...

Germany

[As a German storyteller I can be a little more specific about Germany as inspiration than for other nations - and therefore have (although not intended) a national-tinted point of view?]

After the Second World War we are the way the world - or at least the West - wanted us to be. Don't blame your creation. Never again must war arise from German ground. And so we got pacifistic, pluralistic, moralistic. Sometimes to such a degree it annoys our partners - and even ourselves. Sometimes our own Remembrance Culture with its strong state-medial and political - therefore dead boring - rituals goes ourselves on the nerve. We try to get along with everyone. With USA, with Russia. With Israel, with Palestine (unofficially).

As part of the indoctrination of humanistic values school classes are dragged to old Nazi concentration camps. A normal educated citizen is meant to always remember history and be fair on everyone. What is generally a good thing has a few bizarre side effects in society: hyper moral and double standards. Besides the traditional right standard racism there are also people from the right spectrum who wear the support for state Israel like an armor. At the same time they have no problem in excessively criticizing other foreign persons, especially when they are immigrates. They seem to believe that when they are pro-Israel they cannot be racists. On the other hand there are people from the left spectrum who have a blind eye for problems immigrates cause. For examples clan criminality, mafia, Arabic/pro-Palestine antisemitism were problems ignored for too many years since their fight back did not fit into the German welcome culture. (In any case it should be common sense that German Jews are the wrong target for Israel criticism, they are not responsible for Israeli politics.) The Israel-Palestine crisis and the Belarus-EU border crisis in 2021 shook Germany's self-image. As a result the underdeveloped migration and inefficient integration politics are finally realized through essentially all political parties. Yet, much work is to do to grind away ideological hardening and formulating improved arrangements.

It can be assumed that the ideology-driven opposing views helped partly in keeping alive a feedback loop hindering to create better domestic policies. The well-intended but way naive left-ish narrative helped the extreme right in their doing which again causes the leftist to counteract to protect immigrants. The leftists shouldn't be blamed for having kickstarted the dynamic. There are historic pragmatic (realpolitisch) reasons for this development. The de-Nazification remained highly incomplete - therefore the need of a left-ish over-caring narrative. On one hand it was not possible to put large portions of Nazi perpetrator and accomplices into jail. There were simply too many of them. On the other hand post-war Europe lay in ashes. Germany was needed for the rebuild. And so USA connected this necessity with their own economic and political (anti-communistic) interests.

As for pacifism and appeasement policy - USA (and rest of NATO) often work hard on Germany so that it agrees to their invitations to wars and sanctions against rivals. This is partly a good thing as USA often act themselves strongly ideological just trying to protect their zone of influence. The collateral damage USA cause on their partners*- despite protestations to the contrary - is eventually secondary for them: America first. -- On a general note the problem with USA is that they didn't had a war on their own ground in younger history. They don't know how total destruction feels like. This mixed with an self-image of superiority they too readily accept military interventions as solutions.

* For example Germany is meant to give up NS2 while the States are not willing to endanger their (even more sanctions worthy) oil imports from Russia. When Biden was asked about that in the presence of Olaf Scholz no answer was given. Also, Biden made clear that ultimately he is the one in control of the NS2 decision, not the chancellor - as if Germany is not fully sovereign - that's at least how many people understood his words. The media tended to speak more of helping out Olaf Scholz against an inconvenient question from a journalist. (Well, both views can be true, they don't really rule out each other.)

At the same time Germany earns good money exporting weapons. The numbers are even increasing on average. Despite many restrictions often enough those weapons find a way into conflict zones.

[...]

Europe

Europe can only preserve its sovereignty by becoming as much self-sustaining as possible. Making itself independent from superpowers by new technologies and political unity is key. A true normalization of relationships with Russia will be likely delayed until US influences are displaced and Russia realizes its expendability to a 2060-future China.

Emancipation from USA. There are two scenarios to improve enforcement of European interests.

• A) As an early adaptor of minimum-military the EU can free resources to successfully compensate effects of climate change and improve living standards. A certain amount of diversification is not a weakness but a resource. A "pluralistic-symbiotic think tank" can better work out alternative solutions and offer them anyone in need - even to (or especially to) highly militarized, ideological narrowed (gleichgeschaltete) superpowers. - It's a risky move as superpowers must recognize Europe as neutral ground so they can profit from it in other ways then depleting it. -- Wanted: A strategy for viable pacifism. [...]
• B) A semi-militarized version. With an European army with focus on east-European partners to ease their security concerns. USA, Russia and China will be given all the same chances to do business with Europe. No special treatments. Critical infrastructure (ownership) will stay under European control at all times. [...]

2022 escalated the geopolitical fight between USA and Russia. It was another wakeup call for Europe to not end as collateral damage between all superpowers - and to become the green continent.

Russia

2022. Russia assured multiple times that it will not attack Ukraine. If Russia attacks the Ukraine nonetheless - in whatever form, no matter whether a false flag action happens before or not - they will lose all credibility for a long time and NATO will be forced to impose sanctions. Germany will be forced to stop NS2 and give up its pacifistic basic attitude. If the attack is big enough it would even trigger a new cold war.

Invasion scenarios

• Based on pure logic a full-fledged war across the entire Ukraine is improbable. (Also, Bundeswehr sees not much of a risk. The Ukraine doesn't want the escalation to be made real by US talk. And Snowden raised questions, too.) Usually, an attack is carried out as fast as possible so the enemy has no time to prepare his defense. Then again, even if Russia invades they cannot keep such a vast area under control.

The communication by western administrations (and media) - especially of USA - has been criticized as warmongering. Apparently, the current strategy is to speak about war as much as possible (to unite own allies behind the banner of NATO) and make Russia not want to prove the West right.

USA had many shady military and secret intelligence missions (CIA) in foreign nations. This includes installation of new government in rogue nations. Consequently these are made pro-USA. And as side effect USA often profits economically in an intesified way.

Among critics you can often hear the "blood for oil" thesis or "No blood for oil" sloagan, saying in quintessence that USA is using its military to protect its advantage in buying, producing or mining the resources. However, nations with less potential power or by simply being smaller are always in disadvantage and are in danger of getting exploited by economic dynamics. (Pretty everyone tries or tried to exploit African nations.) On the other hand there is the military-industrial-complex and ideological factors that add their bits and pieces to foreign policy - may it be the readiness to use military and the "sense of mission" (own belief in being forced) to bring democracy to nations with a different cultural environment.

Sometimes these missions (for new governments / nation building) end up in unwillingly facilitating new radical forces - like the Taliban or the Islamic State. This makes its sometimes hard to believe that USA speaks the truth. The "collateral damage" - including the eavesdrop of global communication - is so massive that whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and Julian Assange (WikiLeaks) can reveal that many tons of mistakes and wrongdoing that they were declared public enemies. USA created an empire not simply by - but yet partially by - questionalable methods. Putin sees Russia as superpower that cannot catch up. The problem with this fact is that there are four reasons: 1) Climate and geography give Russia a disadvantage. 2) Putin's own growing corruption. 3) The economic heritage. 4) The political heritage: For many US-Americans the Russians are evil communists which must be indeed blocked in their development, consequently this includes the sabotage of Russia's connection to Europe. -- Putin reasons that if USA doesn't "play fair" that he also doesn't need to play fair. But since Russia is in disadvantage Putin sees himself forced to use an even intensified level of ruthlessness. To overcome this position of weakness Putin decided to rule Russia in an autocratic style and take by force what he cannot get with legal methods. - Putin must be utterly frustrated that he could not lift Russia's status out of being an underdog. His entire second part of his lifespan was not enough to "restore" Russia. It seems that he snapped about that fact. - Besides the natural economic competition, military and political hardliners intensified a feedback loop in which USA and Russia still fight each each up to this day. - Anyway, the attack on Ukraine was the last red line Putin shouldn't have crossed. There is absolutely no credible justification for this attack.

• A simple end of maneuver sounds almost too good to be real - although it would be still a victory for Putin in having seriously pranked NATO and let them feel how it is to have enemy troops at the boarder (as an official version for mirroring their own security concerns). Though they might delay the final date to push NATO into making concessions.

There are rumors that say that USA and Russia welcome the conflict to distract from their own internal problems - intensified by the pandemic - sometimes connected to US-American LNG fracking gas and Russian pipeline gas. (In the conspiracy theory near thoughts USA is the only profiteer.) While a distraction for own citizen is more plausible for Russia it rises the question how long they are willing to blow money with that gigantic maneuver. Aren't there natural limits to this? Two years? One year? Six month?

Sure, generally USA wants to protect their zone of influence too but you cannot say their motives are specifically about fracking gas. It is an automatic consequence of the conflict (therefore irony of life) that Putin helps USA in selling their fracking gas to EU. Additional conspiracy theory-near constructs or let’s say further ulterior motives are not required to sufficiently explain this. (Our US friends won’t be unhappy about the bonus win though.)

• If Russia is not given any "security" guarantees (geopolitical cake slice) they might acknowledge separatists areas (Luhansk and Donetsk) as independent - and annex them in a more far future. (A victory distributed in smaller steps.) The military maneuver right now is like holding a gun to the head of Ukraine to ensure step one. "Do you want to say no? What are you gonna do. Come on, it could be far worse." It could be a game about building up a massive wall of threats and very high demands and then let the enemy (NATO) agree to seemingly small points. It would be a continuation of a dynamic that started long ago. -- Putin's calculation could be that mediocre sanctions come and go but soil is kept "forever".
  • A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia more or less waits for the conflict between separatists and Ukrainian military to heat up. Western partners tell Ukraine not get provoked. Russia spoke bluntly of military technical responses if no concessions are made. Heavy counter attacks would give Russia the pretext to "secure" the conflict zone. This Scenario is the most probable as it goes hand in hand with the Russian domestic propaganda. -- Some people speculate that Putin overplayed his hand (geopolitical demands) so that he needs something else as a "victory" and exit. In reality it would be a pyrrhic victory but that is something more domestic propaganda would cover.
    • The rat tail of consequences: Ukrainian government was not impressed by Russia's threats. They said they would never accept the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to prevent big scale of Western weapon deliveries and the take back of ground Putin attacked the entire Ukraine underlaid by weird historic justifications and the assertion to prevent a genocide (meant for domestic propaganda). For a long lasting effect he needs to destroy the entire military. And to prevent its rebuild he needs to replace the Ukrainian government as well. -- Putin might have miscalculated how bloody the war would get and therefore needs further justification. The take over of Chernobyl gives him a better possibility to fake Ukrainian plans for dirty bombs. In theory Putin could use all forces at once (even though waves are standard), tactical nukes or other heavy weapons (TOS-1, FOAB) - which he hasn't yet - to accomplish his military goals but in practice the collateral damage in human lifes would make him the mass-murderer (from "mediocre" to top level). His propaganda machinery in not powerful enough to cover that much damage. Also this would very probable trigger even further sanctions.
      • Putin sees himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence is as symbolic as it is frightening. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. Then again it just part of the game? How far is he willing to go? Is the Cold War warrior having a death wish? Usually we think that Putin is either an ice cold rational or an insane person. What if he is both by now?
    • The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that the West wants to hinder Russia's development. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal.

Post-invasion scenarios

• Many people describe Russia as a kleptocracy where Putin, his fellows and the oligarchs are utterly corrupt and feed on the ordinary citizen. The problem with really persisting, devastating Western sanctions is that they won't break Russia's system but push it into more corruption, nationalism, militarism, totalitarianism. In worst case it is possible that Russia takes the world hostage for economic support: not by dominance but by simply being dangerous. North Korea XXL on nuclear steroids. -- Sanctions are fact. And they can not only damage Putin. On a long run Putin can also use them to strengthen his propaganda: that the West is all evil and wants to hinder Russia's development.

Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change…

Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this: if we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression.

• Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA. […] A more probable scenario - Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. Terra Preta 2.0. Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.)

The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid a blame game in context of escalations. This has changed after invasion by Russia.)

In that case we need to prepare against unprecedented retaliations from Russia: massive waves the disinformation, cyberattacks and perhaps total blockage of fossil energy.

Would Russia really cut us off from gas and coal if it is an important source of money for them? If they are cut off from SWIFT it's hard to pay them anyway - and if we do then further political questions would surface. - It turns out a (still difficult) compromise is in the making.

If the invasion is not stopped the Ukraine or its undestroyed remains are in danger of becoming a Russian controlled police state.

However, the Ukrainians are motivated to resist. The war could go on for a long time. Will the Ukraine become another Afghanistan for Russia? Too expensive to be continued by Russia? Some are not so sure. On the other hand there are signs indicating that Putin's advisors and generals gave him too optimistic predictions. As for peace negotiations the West is unlikely to accept new border lines and Russia cannot not simply leave without face-saving. It is the task of diplomacy to find a solution. This hasn't been made easier as more politicians now support Ukraine's joining to EU and NATO. Also NATO members are going increase defense spending and Putin (officially) wanted a demilitarization. A messed up situation. -- Putin seems to lose but cannot easily retreat. Just in case he unfortunately manages to stay in the game. Here's an idea: To make this a success disclosure of all conditions is not advisable. UN peacekeeping forces should be stationed for two, three years in Luhansk and Donetsk guarantee their "security" and prevent discrimination of local Russians.

For the sake of a quick freedom let Putin have face-saving propaganda. He could sell it as "most importantly we removed the neonazis from the areas around Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukrainian Russians will not longer be terrorized and killed. Through the effort of our heroic troops Ukraine is demilitarized and will stay that way. [Mission accomplished.]"

After that also face-saving grace period the areas return to Ukraine. Their should be economic aids to rebuild and modernize the Ukraine but especially these areas to further support the social healing and strengthen the peaceful coexistence. Secret condition: make a green deal with Russia - with technology transfers and future cooperation in research and in the economic sectors. (We also need Russia to stop climate change!) The Ukraine would be allowed to join EU and NATO but they also need to demilitarize. The Ukraine will have the luxury to not need a military - Germany will fill that gap. The Ukraine can focus on economy, especially the hydrogen for EU. In return NATO partners GUARANTEE Ukraine's security so that no local troops are needed. They can rely on article 5. They would pay 0% for the defense budget during the first 20 years and 1% GDP in the next additional 20 years. (As real economic support but also as motivation to agree to the deal.) This can serve Putin's own narrative of "security" needs and name Ukraine a "buffer zone".

The longer the invasion continues the higher costs Russia will have to pay. The expulsion of millions of Ukrainians will make the negotiations extra, extra spicy.

If the Russians are unwilling to pay unrealistic high amount of compensation they need to give back the Crimea. Keep pressure high with continued SWIFT blockage.

If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such.

China

China demands its domestic economy to become resilient so that they can win the final power battle against USA.

Russia and China are backing up each other.

• They work on an alternative financial transaction system so that sanction on them lose their power. (How many years will its installment take?)
• China is working on its switch from coal to natural gas: that way Russia has a guaranteed income and five eyes and AUKUS member Australia gets damaged in multiple ways. China can later mix in hydrogen and even point the finger at Australia for being an energetic dinosaur.

Update: After Russia's suicidal attack on Ukraine they will likely become a bare satellite to China.

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You don't often see Xi smiling when he is involved in propaganda and military parades. It can be interpreted that he tries to create an image of himself being unemotional therefore a serious and thoughtful leader. Given his special past it is also possible that he is thinking about Mao in that moments. He knows very well what propaganda and ideology can cause. The cultural revolution is estimated to have caused up to 20 million casualties. And he is a survivor of it. -- There were two roads for him to go. A more democratic one and totalitarian one. His most important adviser told him to go with totalitarianism as a necessary evil. The efficiency of totalitarianism allows for faster economic development but also creates awkward costs (collateral damage), "the need" to get rid of dissidents. His own family suffered from such practices. He needed many tries and a false identity to be accepted by the communist party. This might explain why even the sale of Western, seemingly uncritical books about his life are not welcomed so that his cult of personality is protected. Inconvenient questions shall not be asked. The aggressive nationalism (One China) is core to transport the Chinese Dream, promised prosperity for everyone. The paradoxical consequence of China's rise in power is that as stronger they get as the less they need Taiwan. The longer China waits to annex Taiwan the easier it gets military-wise but the more they will damage their inner logic of the narrative. Right now Taiwan is a technological important resource. That will certainly not stay that way. Everybody sees the threat of being dependent to it. USA and Europa are building now chip factories on their own territory to mitigate the dependency. In this lays the threat for Taiwan of getting expendable to Western partners.

[...]

USA

Today USA rightfully thinks of NATO being dysfunctional* (this has historic reasons) - and the European partners don't have strong interests in securing the Pacific. This led to the less powerful but dedicated alliance AUKUS. Besides that USA tries to normalize their relationship to the Islamic world (Abraham Accords, lifting sanctions on Iran) as Russia and China strengthen their own relationship more and more. It's their last straw to significantly increase their weight in the game of superpowers.

* NATO was a self-defense alliance against a hypothetical new aggressive Germany and then against Soviet Union and communism. What started with a legit objective became more and more obsolete and is now in greater part a geopolitical tool of USA.

Russia uses ambiguity to put pressure into their demands against Ukraine and NATO. Biden is now forced to use ambiguity himself. NATO stands weak and will not fight Russian soldiers on Ukrainian ground. By enhancing somewhat the defence of European NATO members Biden can claim the prevention paradox for himself. On one hand he can ease the pressure from Republicans and Democrats on the other hand he can seemingly increase NATO‘s legitimation.

Still it would have been better to not increase defence in Ukraine and NATO partners. That way they cannot be blamed for provocations against Russia and an escalation spiral. It would allow USA to expose Russia as an absolute liar in case of an attack and have an even better point that NATO is still necessary nowadays.

War and money

A story about bloc(k)heads.

A more detailed look on why the WCG is 90% demilitarized.

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Generally spoken military alliances are the consequence of mutually shared interests. At first sight the main interest is attack or defense. In times of peace they have more notably the last word in diplomatic relationships and economy and on how soft power is used: Establishment of industry standards (e.g. 5G), weapons, non-distribution of goods / embargos and sanctions. Therefore military alliances are always a factor in geopolitics.

Eventually geopolitics are always about securing your slice of cake in another country - may it be USA (and rest of NATO), Russia, China or whosoever. The only difference is how they are doing it. (After decades long Afghanistan conflict the Western self-image got cracks. Consequences are being discussed.)

China was the new candidate for hegemony. The corona pandemics prolonged the transition. The world will stay multi-polar for an even longer time. It is not clear if that's a good thing in terms of given time for USA's mental adaption or a bad thing in terms of a power vacuum.

Addendum: More decisive - pessimistic - Spiegel columnist Henrik Müller sees through the eyes of Henry Kissinger a new time of instability ahead of us. A view shared by more and more people. It kind of rises the question again how many times we need to repeat history before we learn from it.

Russia is working on its comeback. Does it just want respect? It's a term that caused strong diplomatic turbulence between Germany and Ukraine January 2021. Everybody knows the Crimea will not come back to the Ukraine but drawing it as a fatalistic fact therefore seemingly excusable was reckless. While that conflict is a problem for itself Kay-Achim Schönbach should have said "Russia wants to be taken serious" instead of "respect". Russia wants also a piece of the cake, the geopolitical cake, money. NATO expanded eastward multiple times, therefore expanded their zone of influence. Why in the world would Russia just stand still and say "that's okay with us"? Sure, the smaller nations should be free to choose which alliance they want to join but that's not how the world works. That's the ugly truth. Only Realpolitik can solve this conflict. The unofficial rules in the club of supercriminals (*cough*) superpowers should be that you don't poach in the territory of another superpower and that undecided territory should remain bloc free.

The question is how can we finally grow out of these studiedly dangerous kindergarten superpower mentalities.

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On a long run overgrown military and war industry tend to deplete their host empires and allies.

Especially USA cannot modernizing their infrastructure, repair/compensate damages from climate change, invest in green technologies and do a new arms race all simultaneously.

The debts of USA are projected to reach a critical stage of 200% GDP in 2050.

Climate change will make war industry an unaffordable luxury.

Climate change and overpopulation will worsen the resource problems on a global scale. Armed conflicts increase. War industry of superpower burn money in war and peace times. Smaller states buy weapons from superpowers to protect themselves (or resources) against other smaller states or superpowers. Superpowers will through military alliances demand their bloc members to contribute more to the budget - putting more weight behind their East-vs.-West-tinted geopolitics - as they cannot do it themselves anymore.

It's a vicious circle, setting a bomb prone to self-ignition. The military-industrial-complex highly contributes to globally rising and distributed debts until they reach a critical limit and any spontaneous mega crisis like a new pandemic can blow up THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

After the probable slimming of USA and the rise of China in 2050 the new leading superpower will stand at the crossroad to deepen its totalitarianism or to fulfill its old promise of a new form of democracy.

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It seems that behind all ideology rest the motivation to serve human needs. Ideology mostly defines the how. Since there are multiple systems concurrence and questions of fairness in distribution occur. As physiological needs are served in very most systems the second stage - safety needs, especially economic security (wealth) - is most often in our focus. The imbalance is clearly visible. The permanent effort to secure peaceful coexistence has to tackle the pyramid bottom up. But the ideological hardening keeps us imprisoned in the dynamics of competing systems - meanwhile the fights waste additional resources to the disadvantage of everyone.

Build into all this is the fact that humans cheat each other. To marginalize this fact only utterly inconvenient pyrrhic events and tools are thinkable. With maybe one exception.