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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ||
:: Scenario 1 extension: Lacking face-saving options. Change of plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. Putin could declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans and takes the food sector hostage. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into that area. | :: Scenario 1 extension: Lacking face-saving options. Change of plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. Putin could declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans and takes the food sector hostage. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into that area. | ||
::: The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will cause new racism of Ukrainians and Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. | ::: The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will cause new racism of Ukrainians and Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | * Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | ||