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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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A new disaster on the horizon: financial hardening by boomeranging sanctions and caretaking of refugees, a new Corona wave, racism
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'''Putin's KGB training and cold war experiences ''shaped'' him for using questionable methods. He raised to represent but not fulfilled Russia's claim in power while also becoming disappointed by Europe's half-hearted partnership - additionally hampered by US hardliners. A growing frustration and long-running multifarious corruption of Putin took place.''' Ultimately it drove him into attacking Ukraine. Does this retrospectively legitimize NATO's expansion? Now the voices of the ''eternal alerters'' are loud. "See! We always told you!" And yet they fall short to realize the broader picture. | '''Putin's KGB training and cold war experiences ''shaped'' him for using questionable methods. He raised to represent but not fulfilled Russia's claim in power while also becoming disappointed by Europe's half-hearted partnership - additionally hampered by US hardliners. A growing frustration and long-running multifarious corruption of Putin took place.''' Ultimately it drove him into attacking Ukraine. Does this retrospectively legitimize NATO's expansion? Now the voices of the ''eternal alerters'' are loud. "See! We always told you!" And yet they fall short to realize the broader picture. | ||
'''Cold warrior Putin has turned into a full-fledged monster - and the West is not without guilt in creating that monster. Right now we need the strength of NATO to contain | '''Cold warrior Putin has turned into a full-fledged monster - and the West is not without guilt in creating that monster. Right now we need the strength of NATO to contain him. But someday the question will resurface: How can we exit the dangerous bloc mentality? That is actually not a question but a necessity. | ||
====Germany==== | ====Germany==== | ||
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* B) A semi-militarized version. With an European army with focus on east-European partners to ease their security concerns. USA, Russia and China will be given all the same chances to do business with Europe. No special treatments. Critical infrastructure (ownership) will stay under European control at all times. [...] | * B) A semi-militarized version. With an European army with focus on east-European partners to ease their security concerns. USA, Russia and China will be given all the same chances to do business with Europe. No special treatments. Critical infrastructure (ownership) will stay under European control at all times. [...] | ||
2022 escalated the geopolitical fight between USA and Russia. It was | 2022 escalated the geopolitical fight between USA and Russia. It was the last wakeup call for Europe to not end as collateral damage between all superpowers - and to become the green continent. | ||
====Russia==== | ====Russia==== | ||
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:: A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia more or less waits for the conflict between separatists and Ukrainian military to heat up. Western partners tell Ukraine not get provoked. Russia spoke bluntly of military technical responses if no concessions are made. Heavy counter attacks would give Russia the '''pretext to "secure" the conflict zone'''. This Scenario is the most probable as it goes hand in hand with the Russian domestic propaganda. -- Some people speculate that Putin overplayed his hand (geopolitical demands) so that he needs something else as a "victory" and exit. In reality it would be a pyrrhic victory but that is something more domestic propaganda would cover. | :: A spiced up version of scenario 3 is that Russia more or less waits for the conflict between separatists and Ukrainian military to heat up. Western partners tell Ukraine not get provoked. Russia spoke bluntly of military technical responses if no concessions are made. Heavy counter attacks would give Russia the '''pretext to "secure" the conflict zone'''. This Scenario is the most probable as it goes hand in hand with the Russian domestic propaganda. -- Some people speculate that Putin overplayed his hand (geopolitical demands) so that he needs something else as a "victory" and exit. In reality it would be a pyrrhic victory but that is something more domestic propaganda would cover. | ||
::: The rat tail of consequences: Ukrainian government was not impressed by Russia's threats. They said they would never accept the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to prevent big scale of Western weapon deliveries and the take back of ground Putin attacked the entire Ukraine underlaid by weird historic justifications and the assertion to prevent a genocide (meant for domestic propaganda). For a long lasting effect he needs to destroy the entire military. And to prevent its rebuild he needs to replace the Ukrainian government as well. -- '''Putin might have miscalculated how bloody the war would get and therefore needs further justification.''' The take over of Chernobyl gives him a better possibility to fake Ukrainian plans for [[wp:Dirty_bomb|dirty bombs]]. In theory Putin could use all forces at once (even though waves are standard), other heavy weapons (TOS-1, vacuum bombs) or nukes to accomplish his military goals but in practice the collateral damage in human lifes would make him the mass-murderer (from "mediocre" to top level). His propaganda machinery in not powerful enough to cover that much damage. Also this would very probable trigger even further sanctions. | ::: The rat tail of consequences: Ukrainian government was not impressed by Russia's threats. They said they would never accept the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to prevent big scale of Western weapon deliveries and the take back of ground Putin attacked the entire Ukraine underlaid by weird historic justifications and the assertion to prevent a genocide (meant for domestic propaganda). For a long lasting effect he needs to destroy the entire military. And to prevent its rebuild he needs to replace the Ukrainian government as well. -- '''Putin might have miscalculated how bloody the war would get and therefore needs further justification.''' The take over of Chernobyl gives him a better possibility to fake Ukrainian plans for [[wp:Dirty_bomb|dirty bombs]]. In theory Putin could use all forces at once (even though waves are standard), other heavy weapons (TOS-1, vacuum bombs) or nukes to accomplish his military goals but in practice the collateral damage in human lifes would make him the mass-murderer (from "mediocre" to top level). His propaganda machinery in not powerful enough to cover that much damage. Also this would very probable trigger even further sanctions. | ||
:::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | |||
:::: 2022.03.01 There were reports of vacuum bombs being used this day but that hasn't been confirmed. Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now want to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties. | :::: 2022.03.01 There were reports of vacuum bombs being used this day but that hasn't been confirmed. Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now want to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties. | ||
::: Putin sees himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence is as symbolic as it is concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ::: Putin sees himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence is as symbolic as it is concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ||
:: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | :: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | ||
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:: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change. | :: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change. | ||
::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ||
:: Scenario 1 extension: | :: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no mans land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | ||
::: The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will cause | ::: The sanctions on Russia start to boomerang harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the Ukrainian refugees are an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now an Omikron wave - initially fired up by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. The combination is like a recipe for disaster. The public support for the refugees will drop and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. | ||
::: The ethnic group of Ukrainians count about 37 million. The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism of Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | |||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | * Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | ||
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===Zones of influence=== | ===Zones of influence=== | ||
China | China | ||
* Afghanistan | |||
* Russia | * Russia | ||
* Ukraine | ** Ukraine | ||
* [...] | * [...] | ||
USA | USA | ||
* First level partners: Five Eyes | |||
* Second level partners: Israel and other unknown nations | |||
* Third level partners: NATO, Japan | |||
* Fourth level partners: the rest of geopolitical primed nations | |||
EU | EU | ||
Turkey | |||
Arabic middle east? | |||
AU | |||
India | |||