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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ||
:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | :: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | ||
::: The sanctions on Russia start to boomerang harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the Ukrainian refugees is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now an Omicron wave - initially fired up by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. The combination is like a recipe for disaster. The public support for the refugees will drop and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. | ::: The sanctions on Russia start to boomerang harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the Ukrainian refugees is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now an Omicron wave - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. The combination is like a recipe for disaster. The public support for the refugees will drop and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. | ||
::: The ethnic group of Ukrainians count about 37 million. The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism of Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ::: The ethnic group of Ukrainians count about 37 million. The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism of Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||