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::: The rat tail of consequences: Ukrainian government was not impressed by Russia's threats. They said they would never accept the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to prevent big scale of Western weapon deliveries and the take back of ground Putin attacked the entire Ukraine backed up by weird historic justifications and the assertion to prevent a genocide (meant for domestic propaganda). For a long lasting effect he needs to destroy the entire military. And to prevent its rebuild he needs to replace the Ukrainian government as well. -- '''Putin might have miscalculated how bloody the war would get and therefore needs further justification.''' The take over of Chernobyl gives him a better possibility to fake Ukrainian plans for [[wp:Dirty_bomb|dirty bombs]]. In theory Putin could use all forces at once (even though waves are standard), other heavy weapons (TOS-1, vacuum bombs) or nukes to accomplish his military goals but in practice the collateral damage in human lives would make him the mass-murderer (from "mediocre" to top level). His propaganda machinery in not powerful enough to cover that much damage. Also this would very probable trigger even further sanctions. | ::: The rat tail of consequences: Ukrainian government was not impressed by Russia's threats. They said they would never accept the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk. In order to prevent big scale of Western weapon deliveries and the take back of ground Putin attacked the entire Ukraine backed up by weird historic justifications and the assertion to prevent a genocide (meant for domestic propaganda). For a long lasting effect he needs to destroy the entire military. And to prevent its rebuild he needs to replace the Ukrainian government as well. -- '''Putin might have miscalculated how bloody the war would get and therefore needs further justification.''' The take over of Chernobyl gives him a better possibility to fake Ukrainian plans for [[wp:Dirty_bomb|dirty bombs]]. In theory Putin could use all forces at once (even though waves are standard), other heavy weapons (TOS-1, vacuum bombs) or nukes to accomplish his military goals but in practice the collateral damage in human lives would make him the mass-murderer (from "mediocre" to top level). His propaganda machinery in not powerful enough to cover that much damage. Also this would very probable trigger even further sanctions. | ||
:::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | :::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | ||
:::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | :::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | ||
:::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage control''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and Balkan becoming soon attack targets are unrealistic. | |||
::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ||
:: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | :: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | ||
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::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ||
:: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | :: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | ||
'''Rat tail of consequences''' | '''Rat tail of consequences''' | ||