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:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner and outer political reasons he will try to avoid a slaughtering of all Ukrainians. Their rejection is a bonus in destabilizing Europe. Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could still declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. In worst case '''Ukraine could become (temporarily) a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | :: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner and outer political reasons he will try to avoid a slaughtering of all Ukrainians. Their rejection is a bonus in destabilizing Europe. Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could still declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. In worst case '''Ukraine could become (temporarily) a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | ||
::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ||
:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural | :::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural immunization occurred by now. We might see a continued Omicron wave that increases '''hospitalization numbers''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the seasonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | ||
:::* Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a mediocre scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | :::* Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a mediocre scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
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::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ||
:: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | :: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | ||
* Scenario 4: The permanent conflict zone. Overall scenario 1 to 3 became less probable. With the desolate forces available Putin tries to save his face by taking Donbas. Putin knows he fucked up. Damage control. | |||
'''Rat tail of consequences''' | '''Rat tail of consequences''' | ||