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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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The food sector being Putin's hostage begins to take effect. EU should finally switch to war economy. A step they also missed to do during Corona. Baerbock just announced the G7 will increase their effort to vaccinate the global south and other kind of support to mitigate historical mistakes (colonialism) and Putin's propaganda of an at least selfish West. Anyway, vaccine injections cannot replace corn. | The food sector being Putin's hostage begins to take effect. EU should finally switch to war economy. A step they also missed to do during Corona. Baerbock just announced the G7 will increase their effort to vaccinate the global south and other kind of support to mitigate historical mistakes (colonialism) and Putin's propaganda of an at least selfish West. Anyway, vaccine injections cannot replace corn. | ||
'''The 4 new scenarios''' | |||
* '''The optimistic one''' | |||
A miracle happens and Ukraine gets enough weapons to take back Donbas. Keeping that area is Putin's minimal goal, so that still won't be easy. | |||
* '''The realistic one''' | |||
Putin will keep Donbas and the black sea coast under control. | |||
After Putin's suicidal attack on Ukraine Russia will likely become a satellite to China. Russia revived the European part of NATO. Now with a secured back old superpower USA could concentrate more power in the Pacific. China's biggest strategic mistake during the pandemic was to not get mRNA vaccines, for ideological reasons [https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/china-perseveres-with-mrna-covid-shot-development-amid-omicron-commercial-2022-02-28/ they tried stick to their own attempts] and hampered its own growth. Russia and China showed themselves to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in geopolitical questions but given enough push and pull Russia could not just end up as satellite but as pinata, hanging there waiting to get economically slaughtered by a frustrated China to finally win against USA. | After Putin's suicidal attack on Ukraine Russia will likely become a satellite to China. Russia revived the European part of NATO. Now with a secured back old superpower USA could concentrate more power in the Pacific. China's biggest strategic mistake during the pandemic was to not get mRNA vaccines, for ideological reasons [https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/china-perseveres-with-mrna-covid-shot-development-amid-omicron-commercial-2022-02-28/ they tried stick to their own attempts] and hampered its own growth. Russia and China showed themselves to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in geopolitical questions but given enough push and pull Russia could not just end up as satellite but as pinata, hanging there waiting to get economically slaughtered by a frustrated China to finally win against USA. | ||
* '''The pessimistic one''' | |||
Putin draws a full circle on Ukraine, step by step, moving along the boarders to take Moldavia and stop weapon deliveries from the West. Then Ukraine gets choked to death over many years. | |||
* '''The worst case''' | |||
Full-scale asymmetric war. | |||
If Putin sabotages or destroys the corn harvest for another year or even longer he will get his geopolitical cake slice. Not the bigger pieces of Ukraine but in the AU because he can blackmail them and NATO can do little against it. | |||
To say it slightly changed words from Don Winslow: Democracies shouldn't have brought spoons to a knives fight. | |||
Africa should have been enabled to feed itself. Now its too late. The situation of a starving overpopulation will take its toll. "Autarky is not a solution", my ass. If China and Russia come up with a true partnership in geopolitics Europe gets fucked. The refugee waves can be channeled to Europa functioning as "human weapons" like during the Belarus border crisis but much more powerful. To maximize damage, waves in overpopulated Afghanistan could be triggered simultaneously. And then the tone will be "thank you America for pushing Russia and China into kicking out asses while you sit on your far-away island. Thank you for nothing. May you become an idiocracy under Donald Trump and never talk to us again." | |||
(Oh I'm getting salty? Thanks god this is just an improbable scenario, a bad dream we all can wake up from. Right? No? So you really want to sit this one out and take the rest risk? -@_ &°# #</\ %@@(§!) | |||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||