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But progress on the hardware level is only one side of the coin. You also need software to utilize it. A Russian team demonstrated that [http://phys.org/news/2016-06-scientists-pc-complex-problems-tens.html some scenarios requiring supercomputing can actually by handled on a desk PC] after installing a new graphics card [http://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.07441.pdf (GTX-670, CUDA supported) and self-written software.] | But progress on the hardware level is only one side of the coin. You also need software to utilize it. A Russian team demonstrated that [http://phys.org/news/2016-06-scientists-pc-complex-problems-tens.html some scenarios requiring supercomputing can actually by handled on a desk PC] after installing a new graphics card [http://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.07441.pdf (GTX-670, CUDA supported) and self-written software.] | ||
Still many PC programs can't draw advantage from multi-cores processors and will not. That is because not every program need multiple cores, like text editors. However the trend is here to stay: more cores. (See Intel's Core X and AMD's Threadripper.) Or more exactly: parallelism. It's the new hype | Still many PC programs can't draw advantage from multi-cores processors and will not. That is because not every program need multiple cores, like text editors. However the trend is here to stay: more cores. (See Intel's Core X and AMD's Threadripper.) Or more exactly: parallelism. It's the new hype. Together with machine learning and AI which started to regain traction again after its past [wikipedia:AI_winter|winters]]. | ||
After these tricks (stacking, multi-core architecture, parallelism) has been fully exploited, the companies will be forced to turn to new technologies such | After these tricks (stacking, multi-core architecture, parallelism) has been fully exploited, the companies will be forced to abandon energy hungry [wikipedia:Speculative_execution|speculative code execution] and turn to new technologies such as optical computing, memristors, and spintronics. | ||
Harnessing the magnetic property of electrons will not only result in less power consumption but also high clock rates. In the past years the clock speed stagnated between 4 and 5 GHz due to overheating. Processors based on spintronics won't heat up that fast, so they can operate at higher frequencies. And higher frequencies means more calculations per second. | Harnessing the magnetic property of electrons will not only result in less power consumption but also high clock rates. In the past years the clock speed stagnated between 4 and 5 GHz due to overheating. Processors based on spintronics won't heat up that fast, so they can operate at higher frequencies. And higher frequencies means more calculations per second. | ||
Finally, quantum computers. You often hear of "breakthroughs" but still practical examples are nowhere to be found. That's because there is quite a number of different approaches. | |||
* Quantum annealing (limited use, not a general-purpose QC), see: [[wikipedia:D-Wave_Systems|D-Wave]] | * Quantum annealing (limited use, not a general-purpose QC), see: [[wikipedia:D-Wave_Systems|D-Wave]] | ||
* Superconducting electronic circuits | * Superconducting electronic circuits | ||
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Powerful, universal quantum computer might just gain traction by 2050. | Powerful, universal quantum computer might just gain traction by 2050. | ||
However, we should see more and more specialization and hybridization of processor types in the meantime. The demand for non-standard solutions can be seen by the existance of ASIC and FPGA. But as even more processor types will emerge they will require AI to be | However, we should see more and more specialization and hybridization of processor types in the meantime. The demand for non-standard solutions can be seen by the existance of ASIC and FPGA. But as even more processor types will emerge they will require AI to be managed in highly diverse systems. | ||
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NV-centers should take over when the ion traps cannot be shrinked any further thus giving birth to real "large scale" QC. | NV-centers should take over when the ion traps cannot be shrinked any further thus giving birth to real "large scale" QC. | ||
2019.10.23 - Google announced quantum supremacy by using superconducting circuits - at least for generating random numbers. So for what's worth: two out of four quantum processor technologies reached infancy and will compete for leadership. | 2019.10.23 - Google announced quantum supremacy by using superconducting circuits - at least for generating random numbers. So for what's worth: two out of the four major quantum processor technologies reached infancy and will compete for leadership. | ||
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