Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

:: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change.

::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression.

* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient.

* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.)

::: However, '''the Ukrainians are motivated to resist'''. The war could go on for a long time. Will the Ukraine become another Afghanistan for Russia? Too expensive to be continued by Russia? Some are [https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/02/22/will-ukraine-be-russias-next-afghanistan/?sh=32c4fe0763f2 not so sure.] On the other hand there are signs indicating that Putin's advisors and generals gave him too optimistic predictions. '''As for peace negotiations the West is unlikely to accept new border lines and Russia cannot not simply leave without face-saving. It is the task of diplomacy to find a solution.''' This hasn't been made easier as more politicians now support Ukraine's joining to EU and NATO. Also NATO members are going increase defense spending and Putin (officially) wanted a demilitarization. A messed up situation. -- Putin seems to lose but cannot easily retreat. Just in case he unfortunately manages to stay in the game. Here's an idea: '''To make this a success disclosure of all conditions is not advisable.''' UN peacekeeping forces should be stationed for two, three years in Luhansk and Donetsk guarantee their "security" and prevent discrimination of local Russians. For the sake of a quick freedom let Putin have face-saving propaganda. He could sell it as "most importantly we removed the neonazis from the areas around Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukrainian Russians will not longer be terrorized and killed. Through the effort of our heroic troops Ukraine is demilitarized and will stay that way. [Mission accomplished.]" After that also face-saving grace period the areas return to Ukraine. Their should be economic aids to rebuild and modernize the Ukraine but especially these areas to further support the social healing and strengthen the peaceful coexistence. Secret condition: make a green deal with Russia - with technology transfers and future cooperation in research and in the economic sectors. (We also need Russia to stop climate change!) The Ukraine would be allowed to join EU and NATO but they also need to demilitarize. (Equipment gets handed over to nearest NATO partners.) '''The Ukraine will have the luxury to not need a military - Germany will fill that gap. The Ukraine can focus on economy, especially the hydrogen for EU. In return NATO partners GUARANTEE Ukraine's security so that no local troops are needed. They can rely on article 5.''' They would pay 0% for the defense budget during the first 20 years and 1% GDP in the next additional 20 years. (As real economic support but also as motivation to agree to the deal.) This can serve Putin's own narrative of "security" needs and name Ukraine a "buffer zone". Also, would Russia show anytime new aggression against Ukraine this decision is revoked and Ukraine get Blitz armed by NATO.

:::: The longer the invasion continues the higher costs Russia will have to pay. The destruction of all infrastructure and the expulsion of millions of Ukrainians will make the negotiations extra, extra spicy. If Russia doesn't want to pay the reparations they need to let EU help rebuild and not reject Ukraine being a member of them.

:: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such.