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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
:: The call for Islamic volunteers and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". | :: The call for Islamic volunteers and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". | ||
::: Scenario 2 extension: 2022.03.13 Conventional attacks couldn't destroy all Ukrainian forces. Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries by constantly warning (bluffing) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer. Given how bad the Russian army is performing it seems that substantial deliveries can turn tables - at least in a long lasting guerilla war. | ::: Scenario 2 extension: 2022.03.13 Conventional attacks couldn't destroy all Ukrainian forces. Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries by constantly warning (bluffing) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer and provoke harder NATO answers. Given how bad the Russian army is performing it seems that substantial deliveries can turn tables - at least in a bloody long lasting guerilla war. | ||
:::: As consequence Putin might block or destroy all conveys even humanitarian ones in suspect that they will secretly transport weapons. | :::: As consequence Putin might block or destroy all conveys even humanitarian ones in suspect that they will secretly transport weapons. | ||
* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022 - Putin's death [ - up to 2050]) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | * Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022 - Putin's death [ - up to 2050]) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | ||