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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ||
:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now a continued Omicron wave bringing up hospitalization rate - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. It won't cause a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | :::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now a continued Omicron wave bringing up hospitalization rate - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. It won't cause a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | ||
:::* Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees could leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | :::* Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees could leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. Societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
:: The call for Islamic "volunteers" and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". '''Then again, will Putin run out of bombs someday?''' The West riddles why dumb bombs are dropped instead of guided bombs. Is it just wishful thinking? Allegedly Putin already asked Xi to restock his weapon and ammunition depots and allegedly Lawrow's airplane returned home midway after getting under US-induced pressure from China. | :: The call for Islamic "volunteers" and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". '''Then again, will Putin run out of bombs someday?''' The West riddles why dumb bombs are dropped instead of guided bombs. Is it just wishful thinking? Allegedly Putin already asked Xi to restock his weapon and ammunition depots and allegedly Lawrow's airplane returned home midway after getting under US-induced pressure from China. | ||