Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

* Scenario 1: Many people describe Russia as a kleptocracy where Putin, his fellows and the oligarchs are utterly corrupt and feed on the ordinary citizen. '''The problem with really persisting, devastating Western sanctions is that they might not break Russia's system but push it into more corruption, nationalism, militarism, totalitarianism.''' In worst case it is possible that Russia takes the world hostage for economic support: not by dominance but by simply being dangerous. '''North Korea XXL on nuclear steroids.''' -- Sanctions can not only damage Putin. He can also use them to strengthen his propaganda: that ''the West is all evil and wants to hinder Russia's development''. There are plans to make an isolated Russian internet.

:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to avoid a slaughtering of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could still declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders.

:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now a continued Omicron wave bringing up '''hospitalization rate''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the saisonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP.

:::* Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees could leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.