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:::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | :::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | ||
:::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | :::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | ||
:::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be to skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage | :::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be to skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage containment''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and NATO embedded Western Balkan states becoming soon attack targets are therefore unrealistic. This leaves Moldova and the Caucasus states like Georgia as plausible attack options. | ||
::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ||
:: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | :: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | ||
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: [[wp:List_of_United_States_military_bases|List of United States military bases]] | : [[wp:List_of_United_States_military_bases|List of United States military bases]] | ||
: [[wp:List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad|List of Russian military bases abroad]] | : [[wp:List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad|List of Russian military bases abroad]] | ||
==Random notes about politics== | |||
===Base attitude of leftists in a nutshell=== | |||
Leftists put the social aspects over profit and fight for those who need the most help. Therefore they have a traditional tendency to be more anti-authoritarian, anti-fascistic, anti-capitalistic, pro-communistic, anti-US-American/pro-Russian, and anti-Israeli/pro-Palestine and support minority-identitarian ideas. | |||
===Pacifism=== | |||
Pacifism has charm to prevent an escalation to war but cannot prevent it if the aggressor doesn't listen to reason. As soon as a full-fledged war is raging then pacifism is in danger of getting wiped out. | |||
Moderate pacifists recognize self-defense as an instrument of damage containment. The usage of counter-violence is an investment into the future so that the aggressor gets discouraged in starting new conflicts. Own casualties can bring a persistent peace. On the net side more lives were saved. | |||
Radical pacifists are imprisoned by their ideology and are willing to sacrifice the live of their own and potentially those of others. An aggressor could easily exploit their position, start new conflicts, force them into slavery or kill them right away. | |||
: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKzAdCGdbmg This topic is such a mood killer. How about this packed into comedy? Oh wait, this is still sad. Well, screw it...]<!--TFS - Android 16's speech--> | |||
==Moderate pacifism combined with radical self-defense== | |||
The entire population is defending its country. Nobody flees. Everyone is helping. In praxis this is unrealistically to achieve - due to human instinct to leave the war zone. In theory it would maximize the chance to successfully fight back the aggressor: | |||
* The aggressor faces so much resistance that winning the war might simply become impossible. | |||
* The huge resistance means own immense casualties. Are the war goals worth that much trouble? | |||
* The killing of huge numbers of people and children renders an early moralic defeat over the aggressor. The justification of own goals stands against mass murder and possibly genocide. The support for the war would drop. It demoralizes own soldiers and population very fast. | |||
* The aggressor would be faced pretty early on with the crime of attempted genocide. A sympathizing international like-minded community of states couldn't ignore that as the continued war tells them that they are next to be attacked. For damage containment they would be forced to join the war and make sure the aggressor does not win. | |||