Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

Talk:Restless Souls/Summary (view source)

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 Summarized, Putin walks ruthlessly over bodies but he is a rational killer after all. We didn't had the "wrong" estimation per se. It was Putin who had the wrong estimation because he was given false information. His own intelligence agencies and military gave him wrong facts. They were too afraid of telling him the truth about Russian forces and Ukraine's situation. That means that Putin would still have attacked Ukraine but only when he had the power to do so.
-: * These days you often hear that Putin has an ideology. I think that's just pretextual, a justification and tool for mass manipulation. He had no problem in keeping the MiGs for war and not let them fly at the military parades. He tried to calm the families of fallen soldiers. He only halfhearted held a sign to remember the deads during the march of the immortal regiment, a once concurrent movement he found to be useful for his own ends. He isn’t talking of taking the entire Ukraine anymore, but the Donbas, simply changing a war goal that was placed in that ideology. Putin ended his speech with a halfhearted hooray and before it was fully out of his mouth he was about to turn away. Sarcastic undertones on. If he is given the right information he knows what he is doing. Sarcastic undertones off. Just because Putin "has" (uses) an ideology doesn't necessarily mean he believes it himself. Unfortunately, Putin is not ready yet to give up on his stubbornness, he is not used to lose.
+: * These days you often hear that Putin has an ideology. I think that's just pretextual, a justification and tool for mass manipulation. He had no problem in keeping the MiGs for war and not let them fly at the military parades. He tried to calm the families of fallen soldiers. He only halfhearted held a sign to remember the dead during the march of the immortal regiment, a once concurrent movement he found to be useful for his own ends. He isn’t talking of taking the entire Ukraine anymore, but the Donbas, simply changing a war goal that was placed in that ideology. Putin ended his speech with a halfhearted hooray and before it was fully out of his mouth he was about to turn away. Sarcastic undertones on. If he is given the right information he knows what he is doing. Sarcastic undertones off. Just because Putin "has" (uses) an ideology doesn't necessarily mean he believes it himself. Unfortunately, Putin is not ready yet to give up on his stubbornness, he is not used to lose.
 The food sector being Putin's hostage begins to take effect. EU should finally switch to war economy. A step they also missed to do during Corona. Baerbock just announced the G7 will increase their effort to vaccinate the global south and other kind of support to mitigate historical mistakes (colonialism) and Putin's propaganda of an at least selfish West. Anyway, vaccine injections cannot replace corn.
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 The relationship between Ukraine and Germany will be probably permanently damaged.
+:There is already a suspicion that the Ukraine is not supposed to win. The stab-in-the-back myth was to be heard from Johannes Hano in ZDF when he quote Ukrainians "What the hell is the West waiting for?" On the quiet Ukrainians start to think that the West, especially Germany, doesn't deliver enough weapons on purpose so Putin can have the Donbas as face-saving minimum goal. In scope of that myth this would go hand in hand with Scholz' and Macron's warning that Putin shall not be humiliated.
+:Scholz also repeatedly said: "The Ukraine must not lose." He doesn't say "has to win". That is a difference, not nitpicking. (Baerbock actually said "win" but as Scholz has the last word this doesn't count.) There are intermediate stages between lose and win if "to lose" means a complete takeover or destruction.
+:The suspicion is strengthened by the official position of USA and the Baltic states that Russia is meant to be weakened so that it cannot start a new war for a very long time.
+:Also, Habeck and Scholz "admits" that Germany is not "doing everything possible" to help the Ukraine. These words could kinda go down the wrong pipe if ripped out of context. They said so because they want to prevent a war between Russia and NATO and therefore the risk of nuclear holocaust.
+:The belated but eventual delivery of heavy weapons could be interpreted by the Ukrainians as "correction" to keep up the equilibrium so that the war keeps raging until both countries are mentally and physically exhausted.
+:Russia will probably try to foster that myth to its own advantage.
+:Should this myth turn out true someday it will reveal another tragic. It would unwillingly and seemingly give the radical pacifists right. "Weapon prolong the war."
+: The Ukrainians would have sacrificed their blood for us then-to-be-called hypocrites and cowards.
+: "States don't have friends. They have interests."
 After Putin's suicidal attack on Ukraine Russia will likely become a satellite to China. Russia revived the European part of NATO. Now with a secured back old superpower USA could concentrate more power in the Pacific. China's biggest strategic mistake during the pandemic was to not get mRNA vaccines, for ideological reasons [https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/china-perseveres-with-mrna-covid-shot-development-amid-omicron-commercial-2022-02-28/ they tried stick to their own attempts] and hampered its own growth. Russia and China showed themselves to stand shoulder-to-shoulder in geopolitical questions but given enough push and pull Russia could not just end up as satellite but as pinata, hanging there waiting to get economically slaughtered by a frustrated China to finally win against USA.
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 To say it with slightly changed words from Don Winslow: Democracies shouldn't have brought spoons to a knives fight.
+Phase I
 If Putin sabotages or destroys the corn harvest for another year or even longer he will get his geopolitical cake slice. Not the bigger pieces of Ukraine but in the AU because he can blackmail them and NATO can do little against it. China can passively support Russia's doing by simply buying large quantities of corn on the world market pushing the price even higher.
+Phase II (option)
 Africa should have been enabled to feed itself. Now its too late. The situation of a starving overpopulation will take its toll. "Autarky is not a solution", my ass. If China and Russia come up with a true partnership in geopolitics Europe gets fucked. The refugee waves can be channeled to Europa functioning as "human weapons" - like during the Belarus border crisis but much more powerful because, unlike the Ukrainians, black people won't be welcomed by Europe. To maximize damage, waves from the overpopulated Afghanistan could be triggered simultaneously. And then the tone will be "thank you America for pushing Russia and China into kicking out asses while you sit on your far-away island. Thank you for nothing. May you become an idiocracy under Donald Trump and never talk to us again."
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 (Oh I'm getting salty? Thanks god this is just an improbable scenario, a bad dream we all can wake up from. Right? No? So you really want to sit this one out and take the rest risk? -@_ &@# #</\ %@@(§!)
-It's said that naturally most refugees stay in their country and hence this is just a "horror scenario". The difference is that this wouldn't be a "natural" dynamic. Interesstingly the Russians have shown lately calmer tones about the corn exports. Who knows what dirty deal was involved in that or whether they just don't have the reasources to prepare for an "African front" right now under the eyes of an alerted NATO.
+It's said that naturally most refugees stay in their country and hence this is just a "horror scenario". The difference is that this wouldn't be a "natural" dynamic. The question is whether Russia can effort the resources to prepare for an "African front", all the more as the they are now under the eyes of an alerted NATO.
 ====China====