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If Ukraine completely falls then China and Russia will dominate Africa first and then more and more parts of the remaining world. As soon as that happens Europe would need to truly unite and aim for technology-driven autarky so it doesn't become a satellite. | If Ukraine completely falls then China and Russia will dominate Africa first and then more and more parts of the remaining world. As soon as that happens Europe would need to truly unite and aim for technology-driven autarky so it doesn't become a satellite. | ||
'''Asymmetric warfare''' | |||
The Russians lack a clear supremacy to win the war so it would be plausible to intensify asymmetric attacks again. | |||
As for the destroyed pipelines the question about who caused it is pretty tough. | |||
{| class="wikitable" width="100%" | |||
|- | |||
!width="50%"| USA | |||
! Russia | |||
|- | |||
|valign=top| | |||
Pro: | |||
* Biden wished NS2 to be ''dead''. An inactivation doesn't count as such. A literal destruction would have been needed. | |||
* With NS2's destruction Germany is even more depending on LNG fracking gas. (This is usually a CT argument.) | |||
* Pure speculation: After Russia's nuclear threatening the destruction of the pipelines could be a sign to Moskau to no further escalate or else pipelines for China and India will be damaged. | |||
Contra: | |||
* A few weeks ago the CIA warned about potential sabotages. | |||
* '''The most important piece in this puzzle might be the observed drones around Norway's offshore oil fields. Besides NS1 and NS2, USA wouldn't go so far to destroy more energy infrastructure of befriended European nations. It is much more likely Russia is looking for more targets.''' | |||
|valign=top| | |||
Neutral: | |||
* The detection of chemical traces from explosives proves nothing. It could have been a false-flag attack. | |||
Pro: | |||
* Suspicious: The Russians were not really upset / surprised when the pipelines blew up. | |||
* The gas prices went up. | |||
Contra: | |||
* The gas prices went up but the effect was rather small since there were no more deliveries. Therefore the Russians must be really desperate to blow up their own pipes. An expensive repair with a German proportion is unlikely. | |||
* A not marginal number of Germans supported the reopening of NS1 and NS2. The leverage on those people is now gone. | |||
* The explosions happened when the new Polish Euro Pipe was opened. It would have been more plausible to blowup be that pipe as well to have a better effect of the prices. | |||
* There were ideas to repurpose the pipe for hydrogen (mixes). | |||
|} | |||
====China==== | ====China==== | ||