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* Moore's law ended. And serious quantum is decades away. A fast take-off cannot happen. An AI cannot improve itself fast enough to become uncontrollable. | * Moore's law ended. And serious quantum is decades away. A fast take-off cannot happen. An AI cannot improve itself fast enough to become uncontrollable. | ||
While GPTs will likely have their niches where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to a new AI winter until spintronics/memristors/quantum gives AI development a new push. | While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to a new AI winter until spintronics/memristors/quantum gives AI development a new push. | ||
===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ||