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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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[Recycle in "schizophrenia within democracy". Why democracies sometimes bypass opposing opinions and how to improve.] | [Recycle in "schizophrenia within democracy". Why democracies sometimes bypass opposing opinions and how to improve.] | ||
In 2022 Scholz couldn’t decide whether he wanted to be a leader of mediocreness or a true deliverer. Diverse material could also be delivered by the industry. But the administration pretended the inquiries didn't exist, were not yet received, or simply answered them very late. Ring exchanges were sabotaged by delays and bad offers. 2022.09.22 Oh hey, [https:// | In 2022 Scholz couldn’t decide whether he wanted to be a leader of mediocreness or a true deliverer. Diverse material could also be delivered by the industry. But the administration pretended the inquiries didn't exist, were not yet received, or simply answered them very late. Ring exchanges were sabotaged by delays and bad offers. 2022.09.22 Oh hey, [https://archive.ph/7vfF1 attempted damage control]? Interesting with what argumentation this went now. | ||
: It's known to public that Scholz hides behind the argument "other nations also don't deliver tanks [because we don't allow them to]". The "leopards" made by Germany now [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/kampfpanzer-deutschland-osteuropa-101.html in 13 European states] are best suited for delivery but Scholz can refuse their export because of contract clauses. | : It's known to public that Scholz hides behind the argument "other nations also don't deliver tanks [because we don't allow them to]". The "leopards" made by Germany now [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/kampfpanzer-deutschland-osteuropa-101.html in 13 European states] are best suited for delivery but Scholz can refuse their export because of contract clauses. | ||
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* Frustrating conclusion: Scholz must be thinking there is [https://web.archive.org/web/20220918035215/https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/haubitze-rch155-ukraine-bekommt-bessere-deutsche-artillerie-18323559.html no other option left but to wait]<!-- delivery in 2025--> until Putin runs out of ammunition or troops. The proverbial bite into granite. The weak point is: When Putin runs out of conventional ammunition he will still have the nuclear bombs. Therefore Scholz' plan might be after all to not give Ukraine enough weapons so they cannot take back Crimea. In that scenario neither Ukraine wouldn't have lost "older" territory nor would have Russia its "newer". Back to status quo. There we have it again, as Scholz said: "Ukraine must not lose." (At the beginning he avoided to say "Ukraine has to win.") | * Frustrating conclusion: Scholz must be thinking there is [https://web.archive.org/web/20220918035215/https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/haubitze-rch155-ukraine-bekommt-bessere-deutsche-artillerie-18323559.html no other option left but to wait]<!-- delivery in 2025--> until Putin runs out of ammunition or troops. The proverbial bite into granite. The weak point is: When Putin runs out of conventional ammunition he will still have the nuclear bombs. Therefore Scholz' plan might be after all to not give Ukraine enough weapons so they cannot take back Crimea. In that scenario neither Ukraine wouldn't have lost "older" territory nor would have Russia its "newer". Back to status quo. There we have it again, as Scholz said: "Ukraine must not lose." (At the beginning he avoided to say "Ukraine has to win.") | ||
:: We shouldn't fall for Putin's threatening and framing comments [https:// | :: We shouldn't fall for Putin's threatening and framing comments [https://archive.ph/JaJEa like that of Veit Medick]. Medick starts his comment by discrediting people as "tank fans". People supporting weapons deliveries are "in a fever", drawing a picture of mentally illness. And "[this is not a] videogame." Yea, everybody knows that. Especially the people in Butcha. Actual arguments are few and packed with fears. For stronger arguments there is a little interview with Klaus Wittmann, General a.D, on WELT. If you are interested make sure to not read the text but watch [https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article241106455/Waffenhilfe-Deutschland-liefert-weitere-Geschuetze-an-die-Ukraine.html the video]. -- The training of Ukrainian soldiers for modern German tanks better should have started months ago. | ||
:: Putin: "We are not in a hurry. [Because we are running out of good ideas.]" A simple lie followed by partial mobilization, sharpened laws against deserters, and the order to produce military goods as fast as possible. '''The home front was about to erode.''' Look into the [https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1571712271063072773 long sad faces in their propaganda talk show]. -- Nuclear weapons aren't an option. Therefore more ''conventional'' escalations. He could have blown away Zelenskyy together with Kyiv but didn't. Putin hopes to buy time and be successful with his scare game. -- The 300.000+X reservists would be badly equipped but still a threat by their number. Therefore it is careless to just wait and see how the Ukrainian soldiers can defend against them. Only ''enough'' weapons to defend Ukraine will be ''enough''. No less. If Putin dictates how much we are "allowed" to give them, they cannot win. Homeopathic doses will not do. -- A Russian military warned that they could repeat the call-up, several times. Improbable. When the first wave of 300.000 reservists has returned home - either servery wounded, with lost limbs or dead - the last idiot will have understood that there waits nothing good for him in Ukraine. Edit: Because of the public obvious disliking some analysts expect the mobilization will continue in a covered fashion. | :: Putin: "We are not in a hurry. [Because we are running out of good ideas.]" A simple lie followed by partial mobilization, sharpened laws against deserters, and the order to produce military goods as fast as possible. '''The home front was about to erode.''' Look into the [https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1571712271063072773 long sad faces in their propaganda talk show]. -- Nuclear weapons aren't an option. Therefore more ''conventional'' escalations. He could have blown away Zelenskyy together with Kyiv but didn't. Putin hopes to buy time and be successful with his scare game. -- The 300.000+X reservists would be badly equipped but still a threat by their number. Therefore it is careless to just wait and see how the Ukrainian soldiers can defend against them. Only ''enough'' weapons to defend Ukraine will be ''enough''. No less. If Putin dictates how much we are "allowed" to give them, they cannot win. Homeopathic doses will not do. -- A Russian military warned that they could repeat the call-up, several times. Improbable. When the first wave of 300.000 reservists has returned home - either servery wounded, with lost limbs or dead - the last idiot will have understood that there waits nothing good for him in Ukraine. Edit: Because of the public obvious disliking some analysts expect the mobilization will continue in a covered fashion. | ||
::: Zelenskyy's and the West's statements* changes nothing. Even if the taboo break happens. A nuclear attack will bring nothing but new problems. At the end of the day there is only one way to go. With brutal honest logic: if we allow nuclear blackmailing for one time, we allow it for all times. We must stop playing the "scare game". Nuclear weapons must be destroyed for our all future. The cold war must end. Live and let live. | ::: Zelenskyy's and the West's statements* changes nothing. Even if the taboo break happens. A nuclear attack will bring nothing but new problems. At the end of the day there is only one way to go. With brutal honest logic: if we allow nuclear blackmailing for one time, we allow it for all times. We must stop playing the "scare game". Nuclear weapons must be destroyed for our all future. The cold war must end. Live and let live. | ||
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====5-Grad-Plus-Erde==== | ====5-Grad-Plus-Erde==== | ||
[https:// | [https://archive.ph/T53B6 Jor, man kann natürlich argumentieren, dass RCP8.5 und RCP6.0 unrealistisch sind.] Oder man macht sich Gedanken zu was unterschätzte Selbstverstärkung, RCP4.5 und die Kipppunkte führen (können). Höhere RCP-Äquivalente? Ich persönlich glaube ja auch nicht, dass die gesamte Menschheit ausstirbt. Irgendein Rest moderne Zivilisation wird schon noch übrig bleiben. Aber man muss es ja nicht drauf anlegen, das Restrisiko Realität werden zu lassen. Oder? | ||
Warum so pessimistisch? Die Prognosen werden immer wieder nach oben verschoben. Hier eine Region, [https://phys.org/news/2022-09-5c-century-eastern-mediterranean-middle.html da eine Region], und schließlich doch global. Das heißt, dass da noch etwas ist von dem wir nichts wissen und gegen uns arbeitet und/oder der sich selbst verstärkende Temperaturanstieg noch immer unterschätzt wird. Die große Gefahr ist, dass die Kipppunkte wie Dominosteine einer nach dem anderem umkippen. Einige Kipppunkte liegen in polnahen Regionen, die sich sowieso besonders schnell erwärmen. | Warum so pessimistisch? Die Prognosen werden immer wieder nach oben verschoben. Hier eine Region, [https://phys.org/news/2022-09-5c-century-eastern-mediterranean-middle.html da eine Region], und schließlich doch global. Das heißt, dass da noch etwas ist von dem wir nichts wissen und gegen uns arbeitet und/oder der sich selbst verstärkende Temperaturanstieg noch immer unterschätzt wird. Die große Gefahr ist, dass die Kipppunkte wie Dominosteine einer nach dem anderem umkippen. Einige Kipppunkte liegen in polnahen Regionen, die sich sowieso besonders schnell erwärmen. | ||