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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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:: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change. | :: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change. | ||
::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ||
:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no | :: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | ||
::: The sanctions on Russia start to boomerang harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the Ukrainian refugees are an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now an Omikron wave - initially fired up by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. The combination is like a recipe for disaster. The public support for the refugees will drop and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. | ::: The sanctions on Russia start to boomerang harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the Ukrainian refugees are an additional hardening. Also, their vaccination rate is 35%. We will likely see now an Omikron wave - initially fired up by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. The combination is like a recipe for disaster. The public support for the refugees will drop and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. | ||
::: The ethnic group of Ukrainians count about 37 million. The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism of Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ::: The ethnic group of Ukrainians count about 37 million. The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism of Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system. | ||
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:: The hiring of islamic mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". | :: The hiring of islamic mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". | ||
::: Scenario 2 extension: Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries and constantly warns (bluffs) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer. And convention strikes couldn't even fully destroy Ukrainian forces. Substantial deliveries would accelerate his defeat. | ::: Scenario 2 extension: Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries and constantly warns (bluffs) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer. And convention strikes couldn't even fully destroy Ukrainian forces. Substantial deliveries would accelerate his defeat. | ||
* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022-2050) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | * Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022 - Putin's death [ - up to 2050]) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | ||
:: The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid escalations (and a followup blame game). This has of course changed after the invasion by Russia.) | :: The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid escalations (and a followup blame game). This has of course changed after the invasion by Russia.) | ||
::: In that case we need to '''prepare against unprecedented retaliations''' from Russia: massive waves the disinformation, '''cyberattacks''' and perhaps total blockage of fossil energy. | ::: In that case we need to '''prepare against unprecedented retaliations''' from Russia: massive waves the disinformation, '''cyberattacks''' and perhaps total blockage of fossil energy. | ||