Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions

As for pacifism and appeasement policy - USA (and rest of NATO) often work hard on Germany so that it agrees to their ''invitations'' to wars and sanctions against rivals. This is partly a good thing as USA often act themselves strongly ideological just trying to protect their zone of influence. The collateral damage USA cause on their partners*- despite protestations to the contrary - is eventually secondary for them: ''America first''. -- On a general note the problem with USA is that they didn't had a war on their own ground [[wp:American_Revolutionary_War|in younger history]]. They don't know how total destruction feels like. This mixed with an self-image of superiority they too readily accept military interventions as solutions.

: * '''For example Germany is meant to give up NS2 while the States are not willing to endanger their (even more sanctions worthy) oil imports from Russia. When Biden was asked about that in the presence of Olaf Scholz no answer was given.''' Also, Biden made clear that ultimately he is the one in control of the NS2 decision, not the chancellor - as if Germany is not fully sovereign - that's at least how many people understood his words. The media tended to speak more of helping out Olaf Scholz against an inconvenient question from a journalist. (Well, both views can be true, they don't really rule out each other.)

At the same time Germany earns good money exporting weapons. [https://www.dw.com/en/german-arms-sales-drop-to-second-highest-levels-on-record/a-37243336 The numbers are even increasing on average]. Despite many restrictions often enough those weapons find a way into conflict zones.

::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression.

:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner-political reasons he will try to prevent a slaughter of all Ukrainians: Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could simply declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. '''Ukraine could be become a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they are must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders.

::: The ethnic group of Ukrainians count about 37 million. The long-lasting expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism of Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.

* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient.

* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022 - Putin's death [ - up to 2050]) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.)

:: The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid escalations (and a followup blame game). This has of course changed after the invasion by Russia.)

===Zones of influence===

China

* [...]

** [[wp:Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization|CSTO]]

** Ukraine

USA

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: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases

: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_bases

: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_military_bases_abroad