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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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:: The call for Islamic volunteers and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". | :: The call for Islamic volunteers and mercenaries seems to be a hint that Putin cannot win the war with ground forces. He is left with using more bombs and kill Selenskyj "in time". | ||
::: Scenario 2 extension: 2022.03.13 Conventional attacks couldn't destroy all Ukrainian forces. Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries by constantly warning (bluffing) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer. Given how bad the Russian army is performing it seems that substantial deliveries can turn tables. | ::: Scenario 2 extension: 2022.03.13 Conventional attacks couldn't destroy all Ukrainian forces. Putin showed himself nervous about new weapon deliveries by constantly warning (bluffing) the West. He cannot use NBC retaliation as it would render him a full-fledged mass murderer. Given how bad the Russian army is performing it seems that substantial deliveries can turn tables. | ||
:::: As consequence Putin might block or destroy all conveys even humanitarian ones in suspect that they will secretly transport weapons. | |||
* Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022 - Putin's death [ - up to 2050]) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | * Scenario 3: <!--''Russians, useful idiots to China. Europeans, useful idiots to USA.'' […]--> Cold War 1.5 (2022 - Putin's death [ - up to 2050]) - is that Russia endures most financial and economic sanctions with help of China. Russia will get computer chips and other high-tech products from China. Russia will remain in a mediocre bad condition with a trend for even worse because it slides more and more into Chinese dependencies. Alone the different growth rates will make them complete uneven partners. Russia has little to await from the West and eventually China - superpower number one. - Then when enough time past fully disillusioned post-Putin Russians can hope for normalization with Europe. [[Restless_Souls/Technology#Terra_Preta_2.0|Terra Preta 2.0.]] Russia's economy never really recovered from World War II. They need a modernization - a Russian Marshal plan - also to deradicalize the political system. Poverty begets negative development and slows down positive development. (See Afghanistan.) | ||
:: The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid escalations (and a followup blame game). This has of course changed after the invasion by Russia.) | :: The decision to include SWIFT in the sanctions package is a tough one, a dilemma in the face of damage dealt to everyone. It should be done anyway since the other sanctions are not strong enough and SWIFT was already announced. NATO make themselves incredible if they make a retraction. Especially Germany SHOULD NOT block this decision after its steel helmets "joke". (In general the denial of weapon deliveries was justifiable to avoid escalations (and a followup blame game). This has of course changed after the invasion by Russia.) | ||