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Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
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::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ||
:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural immunization occurred by now. We might see a continued Omicron wave that increases '''hospitalization numbers''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the seasonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | :::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural immunization occurred by now. We might see a continued Omicron wave that increases '''hospitalization numbers''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the seasonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | ||
:::: Update: Putin's attempt to continue the blitzkrieg as "regular" war also failed. The collapsed wave of refugees helped stop fueling the Omikron wave. But that doesn't mean to throw over all current efforts and preparation plans for new refugees. ''Better save than sorry.'' -- As a SPIEGEL reporter noted some terror acts were the result of a wrath dynamic against the civil population, other terror acts were probably ordered and were part of the new strategy. In any case we will probably witness more of them. But if every massacre forces an reaction we would have an gas embargo by midsummer because we don't have that many Russian diplomats that we could kicked out for face saving. If no gas embargo is done politicians will have to rethink their option on transferring heavy weapons to Ukraine. Are the Marder infantry fighting vehicles really indispensable because they are bound resources in NATO duty? As long as Russia is busy in Ukraine - and they will be even more when the Marders are moved there - the argument feels "not on point". Also, if NVA tanks can be moved then the MiG jets should be moved as well. | :::: Update: Putin's attempt to continue the blitzkrieg as "regular" war also failed. The collapsed wave of refugees helped stop fueling the Omikron wave. But that doesn't mean to throw over all current efforts and preparation plans for new refugees. ''Better save than sorry.'' -- As a SPIEGEL reporter noted some terror acts were the result of a wrath dynamic against the civil population, other terror acts were probably ordered and were part of the new strategy. In any case we will probably witness more of them. But if every massacre forces an reaction we would have an gas embargo by midsummer because we don't have that many Russian diplomats that we could kicked out for face saving. If no gas embargo is done politicians will have to rethink their option on transferring heavy weapons to Ukraine. [https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article238015209/Ukraine-Krieg-Ukraine-bittet-Scholz-direkt-um-Panzer-doch-dieser-zoegert.html Are the Marder infantry fighting vehicles really indispensable because they are bound resources in NATO duty?] As long as Russia is busy in Ukraine - and they will be even more when the Marders are moved there - the argument feels "not on point". Also, if NVA tanks can be moved then the MiG jets should be moved as well. | ||
:::* <span style="color:gray;">Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a "mediocre" scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.</span> | :::* <span style="color:gray;">Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a "mediocre" scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.</span> | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||