8,452
edits
Talk:Restless Souls/Summary: Difference between revisions
m
no edit summary
m (replacing 404 links with Archive.org links) |
Paradox-01 (talk | contribs) mNo edit summary |
||
| Line 326: | Line 326: | ||
After the Second World War we are the way the world - or at least the West - wanted us to be. Don't blame your creation. ''Never again must war arise from German ground.'' '''And so we got pacifistic, pluralistic, moralistic. Sometimes to such a degree it annoys our partners - and even ourselves.''' Sometimes our own Remembrance Culture with its strong state-medial and political - therefore dead boring - rituals goes ourselves on the nerve. We try to get along with everyone. With USA, with Russia. With Israel, with Palestine (unofficially). | After the Second World War we are the way the world - or at least the West - wanted us to be. Don't blame your creation. ''Never again must war arise from German ground.'' '''And so we got pacifistic, pluralistic, moralistic. Sometimes to such a degree it annoys our partners - and even ourselves.''' Sometimes our own Remembrance Culture with its strong state-medial and political - therefore dead boring - rituals goes ourselves on the nerve. We try to get along with everyone. With USA, with Russia. With Israel, with Palestine (unofficially). | ||
As part of the '''indoctrination of humanistic values''' school classes are dragged to old Nazi concentration camps. A normal educated citizen is meant to always remember history and be fair on everyone. What is generally a good thing has a few '''bizarre side effects in society''': hyper moral and double standards. Besides the traditional right standard racism [https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/israel-und-europas-rechtspopulisten-verbuendete-gegen-islam-und-islamismus/23938578.html there are also people from the right spectrum who wear the support for state Israel like an armor.] At the same time they have no problem in excessively criticizing other foreign persons, especially when they are immigrates. They seem to believe that when they are pro-Israel they cannot be racists. On the other hand there are people from the left spectrum who have a blind eye for problems immigrates cause. For examples clan criminality, mafia, Arabic/pro-Palestine antisemitism were problems ignored for too many years since their fight back did not fit into the German | As part of the '''indoctrination of humanistic values''' school classes are dragged to old Nazi concentration camps. A normal educated citizen is meant to always remember history and be fair on everyone. What is generally a good thing has a few '''bizarre side effects in society''': hyper moral and double standards. Besides the traditional right standard racism [https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/israel-und-europas-rechtspopulisten-verbuendete-gegen-islam-und-islamismus/23938578.html there are also people from the right spectrum who wear the support for state Israel like an armor.] At the same time they have no problem in excessively criticizing other foreign persons, especially when they are immigrates. They seem to believe that when they are pro-Israel they cannot be racists. On the other hand there are people from the left spectrum who have a blind eye for problems immigrates cause. For examples clan criminality, mafia, Arabic/pro-Palestine antisemitism were problems ignored for too many years since their fight back did not fit into the German [[wp:Willkommenskultur|welcoming culture]]. (In any case it should be common sense that German Jews are the wrong target for Israel criticism, they are not responsible for Israeli politics.) The [[wp:2021_Israel–Palestine_crisis|Israel-Palestine crisis]] and the [[wp:2021–2022_Belarus–European_Union_border_crisis|Belarus-EU border crisis]] in 2021 shook Germany's self-image. As a result the underdeveloped migration and inefficient integration politics are finally realized through essentially all political parties. Yet, much work is to do to grind away ideological hardening and formulating improved arrangements. | ||
:It can be assumed that the '''ideology-driven opposing views helped partly in keeping alive a feedback loop''' hindering to create better domestic policies. The well-intended but way naive left-ish narrative helped the extreme right in their doing which again causes the leftist to counteract to protect immigrants. The leftists shouldn't be blamed for having kickstarted the dynamic. There are historic pragmatic (realpolitisch) reasons for this development. The denazification remained highly incomplete - therefore the need of a left-ish over-caring narrative. On one hand it was not possible to put large portions of Nazi perpetrator and accomplices into jail. There were simply too many of them. On the other hand post-war Europe lay in ashes. [[wp:Marshall_Plan|Germany was needed for the rebuild.]] And so USA connected this necessity with their own economic and political (anti-communistic) interests. | :It can be assumed that the '''ideology-driven opposing views helped partly in keeping alive a feedback loop''' hindering to create better domestic policies. The well-intended but way naive left-ish narrative helped the extreme right in their doing which again causes the leftist to counteract to protect immigrants. The leftists shouldn't be blamed for having kickstarted the dynamic. There are historic pragmatic (realpolitisch) reasons for this development. The denazification remained highly incomplete - therefore the need of a left-ish over-caring narrative. On one hand it was not possible to put large portions of Nazi perpetrator and accomplices into jail. There were simply too many of them. On the other hand post-war Europe lay in ashes. [[wp:Marshall_Plan|Germany was needed for the rebuild.]] And so USA connected this necessity with their own economic and political (anti-communistic) interests. | ||
| Line 366: | Line 366: | ||
:::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | :::: Nuclear explosions cannot be made hidden and they are symbolic for mass murder. Large scale usage of biological weapons like Anthrax is the same. Anthrax is not transmitted from human to human. However Putin will not be so stupid to drop it near his own troops. A rest risk remains that west Ukrainian cities and farm land get contaminated so that no guerrilla war can take place. A small scale usage of chemical weapons to spread terror is more plausible than N and B weapons. N and B would make it almost impossible for China to keep supporting Putin without losing all face. The current propaganda about Ukrainian B weapons - like the not existing dirty bombs - is another justification to continue the war. | ||
:::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | :::: <s>2022.03.01 Right now a military convoy over 60 km long is on the way to Kiev. Apparently, Putin now wants to carry out the "denazification" - the removal of Ukrainian administration by force. The urban warfare will probably cause tons of casualties.</s> | ||
:::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage control''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and NATO embedded Western Balkan states becoming soon attack targets are therefore unrealistic. This leaves Moldova and the Caucasus states like Georgia as plausible attack options. | :::: '''The permanent conflict zone that binds resources. Putin begins to realize that he fucked up.''' Some troops are regrouping. His face saving goal should be to skip the puppet state creation and just do '''damage control''' instead which means to take at least the Donbas under control. This has been coined Phase 2. Since there might be some suicidal rest pride/ambition left he might still go against Zelenskyy in form of leveling Kiev. The Donbas could generally serve as retreat area no matter what will happen next. Being still busy there Putin will probably be unable to target any of the non-NATO Balkan nations - all the more as they already '''surrounded by a reinforced NATO'''. Putin's tanks cannot simply roll through team blue territory and get away with that. Russia and China can only try to bring those into stronger economical dependencies. The Baltic states are already protected by article 5. Current news posts about Baltic and NATO embedded Western Balkan states becoming soon attack targets are therefore unrealistic. This leaves Moldova and the Caucasus states like Georgia as plausible attack options. | ||
::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ::: Putin saw himself running out of milder options. His reaction to blockage of SWIFT with nuclear deterrence was as symbolic as it was concerning. SWIFT itself was described as a nuclear bomb. So his acting can be interpreted as face-saving counter. | ||
:: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | :: The simpler interpretation of all this is that Putin wants geopolitical influence but cannot bluntly say so. At some point he actually did: that ''the West wants to hinder Russia's development''. While that is not completely untrue - in context of USA - the usual told version is that Russia feels threatened by NATO which is nonsense as NATO is an alliance for defense. - When NATO decided to not give in and reject future membership of Ukraine Russia went on to create facts. The invasion covers both: the pretextual argumentation to prevent NATO expansion and the actual geopolitical goal. | ||
| Line 374: | Line 374: | ||
:: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change. | :: Biden once said Russia is dangerous because they have nothing but fossil energy. This needs to change. | ||
::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ::: Counter action: Let me dream of peace though not many want to hear this. If we save Russia's economical ass with modernization while Putin goes into retirement and a new generation of politicians raise to power we have a chance to let Russia join NATO and let them help contain China's aggression. | ||
:: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner and outer political reasons he will try to avoid a slaughtering of all Ukrainians. Their | :: Scenario 1 extension: Putin lacks face-saving options and might have changed his plan. After a failed halfhearted blitzkrieg Putin might go onward by depopulating Ukraine and take their terrain. For inner and outer political reasons he will try to avoid a slaughtering of all Ukrainians. Their expulsion is a bonus in destabilizing Europe. Those who don't flee after initial hard attacks might do so in face of siege, terror and starvation. He could try to block humanitarian convoys that deliver food and medicine. If things get worse Putin could still declare all refugees and combatants as Nazis and sympathizers. In worst case '''Ukraine could become (temporarily) a literal no man's land.''' The takeover would hamper EU's hydrogen plans, take the food sector hostage and put EU under pressure as they must take care of the refugees. On the long run China can keep growing by investing into Ukraine if Putin manages to secure the borders. | ||
::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ::: Refugees, Corona, long lasting financial and economic hardening: a recipe for social tensions and racism. | ||
:::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural immunization occurred by now. We might see a continued Omicron wave that increases '''hospitalization numbers''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the seasonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | :::* '''The sanctions''' on Russia start to '''boomerang''' harder and harder on Germany. Cost of daily life increase. The presence of the '''Ukrainian refugees''' is an additional hardening. Also, their official vaccination rate is 35%. The open question is how much a natural immunization occurred by now. We might see a continued Omicron wave that increases '''hospitalization numbers''' - initially fired up by a change from BA.1 to BA.2, then by carnival and anti-war protest marches and then by the new population. (The grace period before really easing the regulations so that the seasonal effects get visible in April will probably save our ass especially FDP's one.) There won't be a break down of the health care system but might still create strong social tensions. The public support for the refugees will get smaller and will increase pressure on Germany's political leaders to propose a compromise for Ukraine and Russia to agree on. A narrative of "a source for new skilled work forces" can only be useful to a limited degree. The refugees need to be distributed among all European states. Germany needs to learn real pragmatism and to simplify and digitize its bureaucracy ASAP. | ||
:::: Update: Putin's blitzkrieg | :::: Update: Putin's attempt to continue the blitzkrieg as "regular" war also failed. The collapsed wave of refugees helped stop fueling the Omikron wave. But that doesn't mean to throw over all current efforts and preparation plans for new refugees. ''Better save than sorry.'' -- As a SPIEGEL reporter noted some terror acts were the result of a wrath dynamic against the civil population, other terror acts were probably ordered and were part of the new strategy. In any case we will probably witness more of them. But if every massacre forces an reaction we would have an gas embargo by midsummer because we don't have that many Russian diplomats that we could kicked out for face saving. If no gas embargo is done politicians will have to rethink their option on transferring heavy weapons to Ukraine. Are the Marder infantry fighting vehicles really indispensable because they are bound resources in NATO duty? As long as Russia is busy in Ukraine - and they will be even more when the Marders are moved there - the argument feels "not on point". Also, if NVA tanks can be moved then the MiG jets should be moved as well. | ||
:::* <span style="color:gray;">Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a "mediocre" scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.</span> | :::* <span style="color:gray;">Given that the conflict continues to escalate and the depopulation continues: 10 up to 20 million refugees in a "mediocre" scenario leave their state. The long-lasting fleeing / expulsion of Ukrainians will not only cause racism against Ukrainians but also against Russians. Putin will use the later to polarize and further "fortify" isolated Russia by propaganda, ideology and physical means. As the conflict continues Putin will let his supporters fight pro-Ukrainians Russians. [https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/putin-tv-verraeter-101.html Political cleansing], societal Gleichschaltung. China might upgrade Putin's mass surveillance in the bigger cities and even help him to install a social credit system.</span> | ||
* Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | * Scenario 2: The real amount of sanctions and their impact were somewhat unclear. They seem to devastate Russia on the mid and '''long run'''. Even if Russia "wins" the war against Ukraine the own damage is that high that a military or even '''civil revolt''' cannot be ruled out as the ordinary Russians will economically utterly suffer under the sanctions. The kleptocrates lack a strong ideology to cover a mass-murder against the Ukrainian sister people. A mere anti-West propaganda is insufficient. | ||
| Line 391: | Line 391: | ||
:::: The longer the invasion continues the higher costs Russia will have to pay. The destruction of all infrastructure and the expulsion of millions of Ukrainians will make the negotiations extra, extra spicy. If Russia doesn't want to pay the reparations they need to let EU help rebuild and not reject Ukraine being a member of them. | :::: The longer the invasion continues the higher costs Russia will have to pay. The destruction of all infrastructure and the expulsion of millions of Ukrainians will make the negotiations extra, extra spicy. If Russia doesn't want to pay the reparations they need to let EU help rebuild and not reject Ukraine being a member of them. | ||
::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ::::: The kleptocrates‘ corruption eventually lead to the war and it is their corruption that might end it: money for food, fuel, equipment and heavy vehicles has been redirected. Soldiers start to renegade. | ||
:: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future Russian government is honestly interested in such. | :: If no solution is found the cold war scenario continues. -- A far-future normalization might have an interface in structural weak East Germany at first. The more sanctions there are the more Russia will be hit but also specifically East Germany. Pro-Russian (AfD, Linke) and tendential pro-Russian (SPD, CDU) political parties in that region will probably support a normalization in hope for economic improvements. (In East Germany it is common knowledge that sanctions hit the civil population harder than the sanctioned government.) The far right AfD will serve as a catalyst - as a mutual opponent to the democratic (or self-proclaimed democratic) parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke). As those do not want AfD to grow they might try to occupy (serve) the topic for themselves - or back it in coalitions at least. West German parties will remember the idiom that "elections are not won but lost in East Germany". They will not want to repeat past mistakes. So in total an absolute majority of German parties will probably support a cautious normalization given that the 2050/2060-future post-Putin Russian government is honestly interested in such. | ||
'''Rat tail of consequences''' | '''Rat tail of consequences''' | ||