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===Why we thought it would hit the working class at first again=== | ===Why we thought it would hit the working class at first again=== | ||
The '''nature of | The '''nature of automation''' changed over the '''industrial revolutions''', from raw power over how it is used (management by computers, control through digitalization) to information itself. In school, the first thing we learned - and that remained - is the steam engine and the power loom. | ||
Scaled up machine learning and AI will change everything, eventually. But from now on it will happen '''in software at first'''. Software is naturally the first target and any '''implementation in robotics will need additional development''' and testing. -- Or in short: Improvements (and job change) in any "classic" industry happens too, but in a delayed fashion. | |||
A wave of '''job change''' is about to happen with GPT5+. It will presumably give birth to a range of really good ANI. But the far '''long-term trend''' with real AI (AGI) is more and '''more unemployment''' because '''not everybody can adapt to AGI'''. And eventually there will be ASI where everybody will be "a dumb nut" if compared to ASI. -- While there is a delay in removal of physical demanding jobs, paradoxically, intellectual demanding jobs are the ones that will die out last. | A wave of '''job change''' is about to happen with GPT5+. It will presumably give birth to a range of really good ANI. But the far '''long-term trend''' with real AI (AGI) is more and '''more unemployment''' because '''not everybody can adapt to AGI'''. And eventually there will be ASI where everybody will be "a dumb nut" if compared to ASI. -- While there is a delay in removal of physical demanding jobs, paradoxically, intellectual demanding jobs are the ones that will die out last. | ||
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Climate change. Population aging. '''Enemies will not sleep.''' (Think forward "Team Jorge", "Vulcan Files", etc.) (Defense of social media and cyberspace in general.) | Climate change. Population aging. '''Enemies will not sleep.''' (Think forward "Team Jorge", "Vulcan Files", etc.) (Defense of social media and cyberspace in general.) | ||
The race is on. Pausing or stopping AI research across the entire planet is not possible, an illusion. If USA pauses, China is unlikely to follow suit, and vice versa. Like nuclear weapons, AI will spread. — Research should continue at all times. What services should be given public access is a different question. — AI regulation is realistically a topic for later when mutual delivered punches have increased mutual agreement. Like restriction of [[wp:Weapon_of_mass_destruction#International_law|weapons of mass destruction]]. | The race is on. [https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/ Pausing or stopping AI research] across the entire planet is not possible, an illusion. If USA pauses, China is unlikely to follow suit, and vice versa. Like nuclear weapons, AI will spread. — Research should continue at all times. What services should be given public access is a different question. — AI regulation between states is realistically a topic for later when mutual delivered punches have increased mutual agreement. Like restriction of [[wp:Weapon_of_mass_destruction#International_law|weapons of mass destruction]]. | ||
Hallucinated facts and discrimination through bias call for more research… If this is not about their irrational fears, the arguments by the tech scene seems pretextual twisted to not lose the race against competitors. A camouflaged lobby action… | Hallucinated facts and discrimination through bias call for more research… If this is not about their irrational fears, the arguments by the tech scene seems [https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/04/11/elon-musk-working-on-ai-at-twitter-despite-calling-for-6-month-pause-report/ pretextual] twisted to not lose the race against competitors. A camouflaged lobby action… | ||
[...] | [...] | ||
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===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ||
Reading material: | Reading material: | ||
* General | * General criticism: LLMs are "stochastic parrots", Emily Bender, [https://www.zeit.de/digital/2023-04/emily-bender-ki-gefahr-ethik zeit.de] | ||
* Potential loophole: "[LLM] shows how far the approach of stringing together words and word sequences on the basis of statistical probabilities can go. However, there is no evidence that the '''semantics can be fully deduced via syntactic relations'''. However, the opposite cannot be proven either.", [https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Grenzen-der-Sprach-KI-ChatGPT-zwischen-Effizienz-und-Wunschdenken-7583232.html heise.de] | * Potential loophole: "[LLM] shows how far the approach of stringing together words and word sequences on the basis of statistical probabilities can go. However, there is no evidence that the '''semantics can be fully deduced via syntactic relations'''. However, the opposite cannot be proven either.", [https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Grenzen-der-Sprach-KI-ChatGPT-zwischen-Effizienz-und-Wunschdenken-7583232.html heise.de] | ||
In philosophical view | In philosophical view a GPT is quite similar to a mind-uploaded intelligence whereas language serves as a transport container: semantics via syntax. The training of a LLM is therefore not "learning" but "rewritting" algorithms from biological to synthetic hardware. And it is good that we cannot do direct mind-uploads of individual minds: | ||
* Beside technical not being possible - there is no way to let one person formulate all his knowledge into text - it avoids person specific bias and ethical questions. | |||
* Active emotions are not transferred into the model. No motivations or biological-based intrinsic dynamics get transported. | |||
We rather do an indirect mind-upload: a condensate of human's collective knowledge. | |||
''''Anyway, humans did all the work by having learned intelligence by simply growing up and by going to school, the LLM get it (poorly) transplanted.''' | |||
-- | -- | ||
''Repair this mess:'' | |||
'''Short-term memory, long-term memory, intrinsic dynamics and Big-C''' | |||
The later is important to understand that AI have no (real) inherited motivations or fears. Traces may be present in "text-factual" form but no biological foundations get transplanted: | The later is important to understand that AI have no (real) inherited motivations or fears. Traces may be present in "text-factual" form but no biological foundations get transplanted: | ||
: The '''"statistics" in LLM''' can be seen as very similar to '''human's associative memory'''. LLM to be true AIs they lack the ability to constantly check facts. (No pain, no endorphins, no taste, no co-sensing.) LLM need the ability to self-check data and to correct it. | : The '''"statistics" in LLM''' can be seen as very similar to '''human's associative memory'''. LLM to be true AIs they lack the ability to constantly check facts. (No pain, no endorphins, no taste, no co-sensing.) LLM need the ability to self-check data and to correct it. | ||
A human constantly receives input | A human constantly receives input which forces him to check back on reality and in consequence constantly learn. LLMs lack this kind of learning and "intrinsic" dynamics in many ways. And having "intrinsic" dynamics is considered necessary for possessing Big-C. Strong creativity could be reached in other ways, but for now LLM cannot posses Big-C by default. | ||
[...] | |||
'''[More on "intrinsic".]''' | |||
[...] | [...] | ||
-- | |||
===Are GPTs creative?=== | ===Are GPTs creative?=== | ||
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The rest risks originate from human projections. Knowing this is already half the way for containment. | The rest risks originate from human projections. Knowing this is already half the way for containment. | ||
The biggest mistake would be to let an | The biggest mistake would be to let an GPT "believe" that it is alive or that it can feel fear while it is/can not. | ||
* Transplanting this meme via training data has to be avoided. | * Transplanting this meme via training data has to be avoided. | ||
* Humans talking this meme into | * Humans talking this meme into GPT has to be avoided. | ||
You could also say: when tell a | You could also say: when you tell a kid from the very beginning that it is a robot, it will believe it and behave like one. | ||
Going beyond AGI could change that situation, though. But that's still a long way to go. | Going beyond AGI could change that situation, though. But that's still a long way to go. | ||
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In context of the growing amount (and potential) of domestic and foreign fake news and disinformation campaigns, social media can only be effectively protected against hostile used AIs and bots by deploying own AIs. Therefore, the decision for a state to not use AI doesn't exist. | In context of the growing amount (and potential) of domestic and foreign fake news and disinformation campaigns, social media can only be effectively protected against hostile used AIs and bots by deploying own AIs. Therefore, the decision for a state to not use AI doesn't exist. | ||
Since vast computing capacities and the AI itself must be on stand-by they can be used in the meantime in a positive fashion for dual use: helping the research community and the citizens. [...] "Science society". [...] Team work for democratic systems. [...] The more work together the greater | Since vast computing capacities and the AI itself must be on stand-by they can be used in the meantime in a positive fashion for dual use: helping the research community and the citizens. [...] "Science society". [...] Team work for democratic systems. [...] The more they work together, the greater GPTs / AI we can have. | ||
====Self-censorship==== | ====Self-censorship==== | ||
For obvious reasons, this will be kept in bigger GPTs/AIs. | For obvious reasons, this will be kept in bigger GPTs / AIs. | ||
====The intelligence exploit==== | ====The intelligence exploit==== | ||
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This will follow the pattern of cat and mouse. But ultimately, each censored input can be bypassed by formulating subproblems. | This will follow the pattern of cat and mouse. But ultimately, each censored input can be bypassed by formulating subproblems. | ||
Reading material: | |||
* https://netzpolitik.org/2023/chatgpt-womit-sich-strafverfolger-bald-befassen-muessen | |||
* https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Drei-Gruende-warum-KI-Chatbots-eine-Sicherheitskatastrophe-sind-8933941.html | |||
====The global south==== | ====The global south==== | ||
Ah, god damn it ... the continuation of bullshitty geopolitics ... all over again ... because of the lack of alternatives ... Either we help weaker states with cyber defense or we risk that they reject the Western world and their Chinese vassalisation. Either way, some supported governments will use the given tools to stay undemocratic in power. It will need many smart heads to mitigate this problem. | |||
===Neutrality of state AIs is a must-have=== | ===Neutrality of state AIs is a must-have=== |
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