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===The sci-fi singularity will not happen=== | ===The sci-fi singularity will not happen=== | ||
* GPTs (LLMs) are not AIs. Their functionality is based too much on statistics, too less on actual learning. — An actual AI should be able to learn [[wp:Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback|without human help]]. For this point in time, GPTs have not shown to possess true logic yet. (The capability to do all math without "plugins" would be a very strong | * GPTs (LLMs) are not AIs. Their functionality is based too much on statistics, too less on actual learning. — An actual AI should be able to learn [[wp:Reinforcement_learning_from_human_feedback|without human help]]. For this point in time, GPTs have not shown to possess true logic yet. (The capability to do all math without "plugins" would be a very strong hint, if not a proof.) Without the possibility to universally correct itself, the models are doomed to be replaced (or to be extended at least) by other approaches. | ||
* Software cannot be optimized infinitely. The more optimized a system is, the slower further optimization gets. | * Software cannot be optimized infinitely. The more optimized a system is, the slower further optimization gets. | ||
* Moore's law ended. And serious quantum is decades away. | * Moore's law ended. And serious quantum is decades away. | ||
* Design iteration, production and implementation / installation of software and hardware are limited by the laws of reality so that the overall technological progress and ''mightiness'' of AI is also limited to a comprehensible pace and amount. | |||
While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to a new AI winter until spintronics/memristors/quantum gives AI development a new push. | A hard (fast) [[wp:Technological_singularity#Hard_vs._soft_takeoff|take-off]] cannot happen. Therefore, an AI cannot improve itself fast enough to become uncontrollable. | ||
While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to a new AI winter until spintronics / memristors / quantum computing gives AI development a new substantial (disruptive) push. | |||
===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ||