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Talk:Restless Souls/Technology: Difference between revisions
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→The sci-fi singularity will not happen
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A hard (fast) [[wp:Technological_singularity#Hard_vs._soft_takeoff|take-off]] cannot happen. Therefore, an AI cannot improve itself fast enough to become uncontrollable. | A hard (fast) [[wp:Technological_singularity#Hard_vs._soft_takeoff|take-off]] cannot happen. Therefore, an AI cannot improve itself fast enough to become uncontrollable. | ||
: 2024: When you look at the data points you realize the [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1c79xg9/summary_of_stanford_universitys_2024_ai_index/ exponential start curve] of this new ''[https://www.researchgate.net/figure/S-curves-for-the-established-and-disruptive-technology-Performance_fig2_4899992 disruptive technology]'' is over. The second half of the S curve is about to begin. Pessimists see 2026 as a date of a possible slow down. GPT-5 and timely released competition products will be the last hype in the line. From then on only gradual improvements will happen until a new approach (like real self-improvement) gets implemented. | : 2024: When you look at the data points you realize the [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1c79xg9/summary_of_stanford_universitys_2024_ai_index/ exponential start curve] of this new ''[https://www.researchgate.net/figure/S-curves-for-the-established-and-disruptive-technology-Performance_fig2_4899992 disruptive technology]'' is over. The second half of the S curve is about to begin. Pessimists see 2026 as a date of a possible slow down. GPT-5 and timely released competition products will be the last hype in the line. From then on only [https://www.heise.de/news/xLSTM-Extended-Long-Short-Term-Memory-bessere-KI-Modelle-aus-Europa-9711813.html gradual improvements] will happen until a new approach (like real self-improvement) gets implemented. | ||
While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to [[wp:AI_winter|another AI winter]] until new approaches or technologies like spintronics / memristors / quantum computing gives AI development a new substantial push and make it ''disruptive'' again. | While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to [[wp:AI_winter|another AI winter]] until new approaches or technologies like spintronics / memristors / quantum computing gives AI development a new substantial push and make it ''disruptive'' again. | ||