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: 2024: When you look at the data points you realize the [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1c79xg9/summary_of_stanford_universitys_2024_ai_index/ exponential start curve] of this new ''[https://www.researchgate.net/figure/S-curves-for-the-established-and-disruptive-technology-Performance_fig2_4899992 disruptive technology]'' is over. The second half of the S curve is about to begin. Pessimists see 2026 as a date of a possible slow down. GPT-5 and timely released competition products will be the last hype in the line. From then on only [https://www.heise.de/news/xLSTM-Extended-Long-Short-Term-Memory-bessere-KI-Modelle-aus-Europa-9711813.html gradual improvements] will happen until a new approach (like real self-improvement) gets implemented. | : 2024: When you look at the data points you realize the [https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1c79xg9/summary_of_stanford_universitys_2024_ai_index/ exponential start curve] of this new ''[https://www.researchgate.net/figure/S-curves-for-the-established-and-disruptive-technology-Performance_fig2_4899992 disruptive technology]'' is over. The second half of the S curve is about to begin. Pessimists see 2026 as a date of a possible slow down. GPT-5 and timely released competition products will be the last hype in the line. From then on only [https://www.heise.de/news/xLSTM-Extended-Long-Short-Term-Memory-bessere-KI-Modelle-aus-Europa-9711813.html gradual improvements] will happen until a new approach (like real self-improvement) gets implemented. | ||
While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to [[wp:AI_winter|another AI winter]] until new approaches or technologies like spintronics / memristors / quantum computing gives AI development a new substantial push and make it ''disruptive'' again. | While [https://www.heise.de/news/Branchenkenner-Die-Haelfte-der-KI-Start-ups-wird-es-bald-nicht-mehr-geben-9219155.html GPTs will likely have their niches] where they do excellent work, the question could be rather whether we will see a more linear, continuous development or a [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4aR_smQgxY&t=177s cost explosion] that leads in 5 to 10 years to [[wp:AI_winter|another AI winter]] until new approaches or technologies like spintronics / memristors / quantum computing gives AI development a new substantial push and make it ''disruptive'' again.<!-- | ||
GPT ist eine Form transplantierter menschliche Intelligenz. Ergo, die Transplantation war der leichte Teil. Jede weitere Verbesserung wird schwieriger, auch wenn zwischendurch immer mal wieder S-Kurven auftauchen. | |||
Trinity-Ansatz: AI-System, das fast 24/7 eingesetzt werden kann und sich gleichzeitig selbst verbessert? | |||
* Der heilige Geist: Einer beobachtet und analysiert nur sich selbst (AI #2 + AI #3). | |||
* Der Vater: Einer beobachtet und analysiert die äußere Welt. | |||
* Der Sohn: Einer verbessert und testet sich selbst. (Wiederauferstehung in der Cloud? 🤣) | |||
Bei Absturz von AI #3 sind noch die zwei anderen da. | |||
Die einzelnen AIs sind zusätzlich modular aufgebaut, sodass Verbesserungen quasi im laufenden Betrieb gemacht werden können. Größere Umbauten würde in Analogie zum biologischen Gehirn eine eine "Ruhe- oder Schlafphase" benötigen.--> | |||
===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ===Why GPTs could evolve into AGI but why it is very unlikely if no additional abilities are implemented=== | ||